SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=ter I've seen worse looks than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Finally the solar minimum is maximizing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Man I wish I had been able to fully enjoy this event but I was puking my brains out all night. Still it was awesome to see this much snow for my first time ever! Yeah my wife has the flu and one of my kids has been sick so I've gotten no sleep lately so I didn't really get to enjoy this either. Timing wasn't great with the best stuff hitting overnight. I usually would have stayed up or at the very least woken up a bunch to check it out, but I was so tired I couldn't even bother to get up and look. It's a shame you missed out on this one, but much better storms are to come. I hope we get a 2016 or 2010 redux. That will blow you away. And hopefully those you will get to see some of the better snow during daylight. I'll never forget the CCB action I had for several hours in the afternoon at the end of the 2016 blizzard. It was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Thursday/Friday definitely worth tracking as our next chance. I haven’t been paying attention to it at all with today’s storm. Temps would be an issue on the Euro verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro has a worse track and warmer in the mids next weekend. Sig ice potential increasing and some snow before the flip if the track holds. Areas north of here are going to get hit pretty good. Much more temp wiggle room. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has a worse track and warmer in the mids next weekend. Sig ice potential increasing and some snow before the flip if the track holds. Areas north of here are going to get hit pretty good. Much more temp wiggle room. Yikes. But some of that is sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Oh man... euro is a devastating ice storm. Lol. I'll take the under. 1"+ of ice almost never happens. Still better than all rain...unless it is 1" of ice... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 That is a monster storm on the Euro. Snow/ice/snow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I don't see how we're getting snow out of this pattern with the + height anomolies ahead of the storm, they usually only trend wore with time. Euro gives northern areas a pretty good thump for now, but it is the furthest south of any of the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: That is a monster storm on the Euro. Snow/ice/snow. Wow. That's a sick progression right there... lol. 100 mile south shift and we're measuring in feet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Pretty good agreement for a high qpf producer and a big arctic high to clash somewhere in our vicinity. Trend has been to shove things south as we approach short range this year. I like where we are now.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's a sick progression right there... lol. 100 mile south shift and we're measuring in feet... Euro track looks a lot like the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Holy Moly, how do surface temps look during the storm? That’s a lot of freezing rain even well south of DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Does that SV high res map not take sleet and freezing rain into consideration? Curious how much precip falls as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Euro track looks a lot like the GEFS I think the ridge to the NE and the latitude of approach strongly argues for more wet than white. Or more ice.... Becoming a lock that a high impact event for the east coast in general is on tap... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's a sick progression right there... lol. 100 mile south shift and we're measuring in feet... I’ll take the under on 1”+ of ice. But man, what a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Does that SV high res map not take sleet and freezing rain into consideration? Curious how much precip falls as snow Yeah that can't be right. 20 inches of snow + 1.5 inches of ice? LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 That freezing rain would be ugly, with the air mass that follows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's a sick progression right there... lol. 100 mile south shift and we're measuring in feet... These things always trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Holy Moly, how do surface temps look during the storm? That’s a lot of freezing rain even well south of DC. Temps just below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: These things always trend south. Idk, Normally when you have a wave this strong around N Texas and a HP that has to chase and rush in I would tend to like the chances for interior locations...Could be my first chase in a while if I can afford it because I do think someone in the all-snow portion of this storm will see over 2 feet easy. This baby is probably going to have a lot of wind too, look at all those isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Idk, Normally when you have a wave this strong around N Texas and a HP that has to chase and rush in I would tend to like the chances for interior locations...Could be my first chase in a while if I can afford it because I do think someone in the all-snow portion of this storm will see over 2 feet easy. This baby is probably going to have a lot of wind too, look at all those isobars. Yea, it's not a good h5 pattern for a snowstorm along the coast. Especially in the mid atlantic. Need the tpv to be a perfectly positioned mobile "block" to work this far south. Within the realm but very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 I don’t think 95 and the coastal plain stay all white in this storm; the setup and evolution suggests this is an interior special. But snow to ice/mix/rain back to snow would make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS looks solid for the weekend. Not sure how the mean is offshore when so many members have much stronger lows further nowrthwest. The high to the northwest must be offsetting things quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I don’t think 95 and the coastal plain stay all white in this storm; the setup and evolution suggests this is an interior special. But snow to ice/mix/rain back to snow would make sense. It's the EURO vs GFS, the British, the CMC and the ICON model right now. Don't think we know that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 What are the various ensembles indicating at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's not a good h5 pattern for a snowstorm along the coast. Especially in the mid atlantic. Need the tpv to be a perfectly positioned mobile "block" to work this far south. Within the realm but very unlikely. Maybe this is just the step down that you you have mentioned many times, perhaps just a little colder and more entertaining than you had envisioned it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: What are the various ensembles indicating at this point? Big spread but majority are mixed or mostly rain. It's likely that a big storm is on tap and models will lock into the general track fairly early. We'll know if we're in or out of the game by tues/wed Just now, cbmclean said: Maybe this is just the step down that you you have mentioned many times, perhaps just a little colder and more entertaining than you had envisioned it? The good blocking isn't progged to develop for another 2 weeks. Enough cold around to keep things interesting but with unblocked progressive flow it's wise to not expect any clean snowstorms until later in the month. The stronger the storm the higher the odds for mixed or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Pretty incredible south-based -NAO setting up in the medium range, +400dm off the coast of New Foundland. The +PNA/-EPO Pacific and -AO following are just noise from this main feature, I think. You can see how it's a mostly OP GFS signal (the noise that follows). The main feature is +AAM, I think (circulation of Earth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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