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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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Just now, jaydreb said:

Yeah.  Rainstorms in the middle of prime climo during an epic pattern would be hugely disappointing.  Have to think one of those storms hits us though.  

Learned from this event the models don’t have a clue 8 days out.  Not too worried.  

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Bob, might be a noobie question but, shouldn’t  we want lower heights in the 50/50 region as well? 

Yea, that would ice it but this panel is a blend of storm chances and also a significant cold outbreak. 09-10 didn't have big cold. If the gefs and eps are right, the arctic is about to pay a visit. If we have 2' on the ground it would be epic beyond words

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If someome asked me to draw the best winter wx pattern i could think of for my yard, i would draw this panel

 

Yeah, this -AO has been a trend in the last few runs. I wonder if this is because the Atlantic Hadley Cell has been so amped the last few February. Just my intuition. 

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Just now, yoda said:

True... just saw 192 850s at +8 and I was like yuck

Strong shortwave with a 1040hp right on top. Change the timing and placememt a little and its a hecs. The run tonight hits SNE really good. Would get both of our regions. All models have a big storm so i think that part is a lock. How it happens will be figured out later this week.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Strong shortwave with a 1040hp right on top. Change the timing and placememt a little and its a hecs. The run tonight hits SNE really good. Would get both of our regions. All models have a big storm so i think that part is a lock. How it happens will be figured out later this week.

This storm is pretty amazing in terms of quantity of snow sleet and ZR it is dumping across the entire country.

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If it's the ECM Friday map you looked at, that would just be a weak pulse of milder air with perhaps some light rain turning to wet snow along its trailing front, but it would not be doing much to affect the outcome of the stronger Sunday-Monday event. I am not sold on the milder solution with that track basically across s.e. VA, seems quite possible that a strong low moving along that track would be mostly or all snow for DC and Maryland. 

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FV3 showing that BECS run again:

fv3p_asnow_neus_36.png

 

06z GEFS. There is an increasing signal for a potentially significant snowstorm for around the 20th. MJO no longer wants to go to and stay in phase 5... it is very close to COD and a low amplitude then we go right back into the favorable MJO phases. The SSW damage has already been done and the PV is displaced south. Fun times ahead.

D6D33146-7991-4EF9-B255-97AE849F9194.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

FV3 showing that BECS run again:

fv3p_asnow_neus_36.png

 

06z GEFS. There is an increasing signal for a potentially significant snowstorm for around the 20th. MJO no longer wants to go to and stay in phase 5... it is very close to COD and a low amplitude then we go right back into the favorable MJO phases. The SSW damage has already been done and the PV is displaced south. Fun times ahead.

D6D33146-7991-4EF9-B255-97AE849F9194.jpeg

FV3 is a massive ice/sleet event for a huge chunk of the big i95 cities. Biggest I think I've ever seen modeled personally. Doubt it plays out verbatim but huge signal popping up across guidance now. Odd setup for an ice storm not the usual CAD. Not impossible tho either. Sleet probably more likely with that look. Either way glacier city.

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FV3 showing that BECS run again:
fv3p_asnow_neus_36.png.d3089fe792ecc710c6814ba36125ab56.png&key=952a74ebf036d1000c082a25c16629e31054189c9da81a8b201a625da3a2b8ef
 
06z GEFS. There is an increasing signal for a potentially significant snowstorm for around the 20th. MJO no longer wants to go to and stay in phase 5... it is very close to COD and a low amplitude then we go right back into the favorable MJO phases. The SSW damage has already been done and the PV is displaced south. Fun times ahead.
D6D33146-7991-4EF9-B255-97AE849F9194.jpeg.e36d465f74c8e276b40a74bd60a4f4a9.jpeg&key=ecfcd4f051809b5b4f7469a641c00da323c1062adb02d42335f6b83c39ecd964

In Md on that map we would need to subtract today’s snow for all reading this fun times ahead


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