Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain We haven't had a good ol' fashioned rain-to-snow event in awhile...If it can't be all snow, I'd certainly take that!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now this "TPV" (what is that, btw?)...is that a bigger piece of the equation where we'll know what it's gonna do by like Tuesday or Wednesday? Or is it a feature that can't be nailed down until we get even closer? The tropospheric polar vortex or the big blue ball @ 500mb. No chance the placement of the tpv is nailed down until into the mid range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 hours ago, frd said: Wow This is quite good for an Ensemble mean, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: This is quite good for an Ensemble mean, right? It's great but it also includes this weekend's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Oh Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's great but it also includes this weekend's event. Thanks Bob. Listen......................................if you build it they will come ..... I hope you are ready to track !!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Interesting in regards to the coupling. re What I notice most is the persistence of the Atlantic ridge (300-350°E), which appears to be driven by forcing in the troposphere, from the downstream impact of the amplified pattern over N America... which *is* coupled with the stratospheric vortex pattern (the Canadian vortex). Direct message and ####------------------------------------ Polar vortex status ------------------------------------### The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -7.0 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -3.7 m/s 2013 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 64.6 m/s 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's great but it also includes this weekend's event. Well at least it isn’t rain. It has time to get its act together. I’m sure everything is dependent on how this weekend’s storm turns out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 dont look at the FV3 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 but in case you want too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, Ji said: 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up. Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough. But it can work and its active looking. After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010. But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!! That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy. ...Naw who am I kidding 12z gfs....not sure how to say it but it brings alot of weather This is going to be a lot of fun...right through into March me thinks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: question is, is it's replacement better or worse? This is all just from observation but it doesn't seem to be any better in the long range and jumps around as bad as the old gfs (but that's not really the main goal of op models) but once into medium range it's been more consistent and it handles the thermal structure of synoptic systems way better. Just my 2 cents. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: but in case you want too Ji, you might know this already, but beyond the 240 hour mark is it crazy. One oppurtunity after another. And,what about the cold temps. I really feel we are going to break below zero at some point moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 @Ji fv3 is straight out of the jan/feb 2014 playbook. Progressive thump followed by arctic air. Great for glaciating and pack retention 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji fv3 is straight out of the jan/feb 2014 playbook. Progressive thump followed by arctic air. Great for glaciating and pack retention 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Sweet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Is that the FV3 snow map? It reminds me of that old DGEX run on 1/30/2010 that called for up to 48", and was almost spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji fv3 is straight out of the jan/feb 2014 playbook. Progressive thump followed by arctic air. Great for glaciating and pack retention the models seem to have a 1-2 punch of rain/mix...then another storm forms on a front that is east of the first punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Is that the FV3 snow map? It reminds me of that old DGEX run on 1/30/2010 that called for up to 48", and was almost spot on. Yes, it is. Just shows the potential, thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Not good enough, here's a better one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 the FV3 at 204 hour is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Fozz said: I know it’s Maine, but still the totals on that run are astonishing. We just need to somehow bring that 48”+ zone down to MD and VA. Enter the 12z FV3 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ENJOY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Porsche said: ENJOY FV3 run of the year. Easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: the FV3 at 204 hour is sick DC is like ground ZERO , the prayers may have been answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'm sure it's totally normal for a storm to be puking snow from central NC to northern Maine at the same time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: I'm sure it's totally normal for a storm to be puking snow from central NC to northern Maine at the same time. In my dreams. Very normal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: the FV3 at 204 hour is sick That's some "Oh Fortuna!!" stuff right there...mercy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Off the scale 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: the FV3 at 204 hour is sick Even more incredible is the temps in the middle of it.... absolutely frigid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts