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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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The 50/50 low is not in the right spot for this event and there is an area of +height anomalies off the Mid Atlantic and New England Coast that will not be easy to work around. A rain to snow event kind of like the GFS is showing might be favored in that kind of pattern. It looks similar to 2013-2014 where we got a number of those.

 

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If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event. 

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24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event. 

Seriously?? Wow...could be fun tracking ahead!!

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

Yes I too have learned my lesson with living and dying by op runs or even ensemble runs a week or more out.  This event today look like a strong cold front with rain 10 days ago.  we have come a long way since then.  Even two days ago this event was looking like 1-3/2-4..still may be but thinking it will beat that estimate at the 11th hour!.   Only going to look at the strategic view meaning h5 for North America.  Even that can be deceiving. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up.  Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough.  But it can work and its active looking.

 After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010.  But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!!  That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy.  

...Naw who am I kidding 

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Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up.  Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough.  But it can work and its active looking.
 After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010.  But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!!  That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy.  
...Naw who am I kidding 
12z gfs....not sure how to say it but it brings alot of weather
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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

Now this "TPV" (what is that, btw?)...is that a bigger piece of the equation where we'll know what it's gonna do by like Tuesday or Wednesday? Or is it a feature that can't be nailed down until we get even closer?

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