Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Hits maybe? lol- I should have said couldn't ask for anything more in the long range thread. Have 2-3 open storm threads will be fun shortly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- I should have said couldn't ask for anything more in the long range thread. Have 2-3 open storm threads will be fun shortly. It was a weenie run. Keeps getting better each day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gefs EPS and Geps all look great at day 15. Sub seasonal guidance all show it lasting through February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs EPS and Geps all look great at day 15. Sub seasonal guidance all show it lasting through February. what do you think of my analogy that this weekend storm is similar to our Jan 30,2010 storm and our December miss was similar to the Dec 19,2009 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- I should have said couldn't ask for anything more in the long range thread. Have 2-3 open storm threads will be fun shortly. That’s the holy grail. 2 storm threads at once. Rare for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 There is definitely a pattern change modeled around Jan 16/17... it will be interesting to see if it happens, the pattern seems more stuck in the LR than anything else and last time it showed this something else happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ji said: what do you think of my analogy that this weekend storm is similar to our Jan 30,2010 storm and our December miss was similar to the Dec 19,2009 storm There is a similarity between the two. If you displaced the timing about 2 weeks earlier this year it makes sense. Remember there was a storm in early December in 2010 also. This year there was a storm mid November and early December with a cold blocky pattern. The flip warm happened 10 days earlier this year and the flip back looks 10 days earlier. No two years are exactly alike but it's hard to ignore the similarities between the two so far. Let's hope those similarities continue! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: There is definitely a pattern change modeled around Jan 16/17... it will be interesting to see if it happens, the pattern seems more stuck in the LR than anything else and last time it showed this something else happened. Really? Thanks we should probably start talking about that!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 There is a similarity between the two. If you displaced the timing about 2 weeks earlier this year it makes sense. Remember there was a storm in early December in 2010 also. This year there was a storm mid November and early December with a cold blocky pattern. The flip warm happened 10 days earlier this year and the flip back looks 10 days earlier. No two years are exactly alike but it's hard to ignore the similarities between the two so far. Let's hope those similarities continue!Yes I mentioned this yesterday. The dec 5 2009 storm dropped 5 inches of wet snow which correlates to our mid November. If we had a bit more Iuck...we wouldn't be that far away from 09-10 snowwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Really? Thanks we should probably start talking about that!!! We'll see if the pattern change happens, I think not even if 500mb is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 @psuhoffman dude, check out the 18z gefs for the 20th-21st. Lol. Unusually strong signal d10+. Also one of the weeniest gefs runs i can remember. We might have another storm thread open before the last flake falls from the weekend deal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman dude, check out the 18z gefs for the 20th-21st. Lol. Unusually strong signal d10+. Also one of the weeniest gefs runs i can remember. We might have another storm thread open before the last flake falls from the weekend deal. Chuck said no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman dude, check out the 18z gefs for the 20th-21st. Lol. Unusually strong signal d10+. Also one of the weeniest gefs runs i can remember. We might have another storm thread open before the last flake falls from the weekend deal. Chuck aside is it safe to say the pattern has changed now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Arctic oscillation looks very good and negative, and the rest of the GEFS teleconnections look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman dude, check out the 18z gefs for the 20th-21st. Lol. Unusually strong signal d10+. Also one of the weeniest gefs runs i can remember. We might have another storm thread open before the last flake falls from the weekend deal. Some whispers from the credible met world - that window offers the chance of severe winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chuck aside is it safe to say the pattern has changed now? I hope everyone is in private when they see this post 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I don't remember ever seeing a d12+ ens mslp panel look this strong 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Some whispers from the credible met world - that window offers the chance of severe winter weather. This is the best flip on a dime pattern i've ever seen if it happens as advertised. It's one thing to flip stable warm to stable cold. But flipping from pac puke to KU pattern? Wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope everyone is in private when they see this post Several of those are...acceptable. Gracious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope everyone is in private when they see this post You can't just post that without warning us! Good lord that is great. I'd like to have a word with e2 though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope everyone is in private when they see this post I just printed it out and I’m hanging with Randy as we speak. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I wonder how the ridge north of Alaska will verify, right now it's a hit of 500mb of the 10mb Stratosphere warming. In actuality it may very well be NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't remember ever seeing a d12+ ens mslp panel look this strong Yeah, that's pretty impressive. the 500mb even has a negative strip in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 That would still be an areawide 6" mean after D6. Def impressive... Saw lightning in the distance on the drive home today.....Sign of the change coming our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder how the ridge north of Alaska will verify, right now it's a hit of 500mb of the 10mb Stratosphere warming. In actuality it may very well be NAO. Pleaseeee read more and post less (as in none or only in banter). Your clouding up the great thoughts and logic flow of those who's opinions the board really cares about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 if we see a rainstorm on Jan 25, we might break the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: if we see a rainstorm on Jan 25, we might break the internet The new trend is colder and souther. Makes that panel even more encouraging 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 @WxUSAF posted earlier that FV3 bias so far has been to overamplify systems. Extrapolating that panel + WxUSAF rule = KU. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder how the ridge north of Alaska will verify, right now it's a hit of 500mb of the 10mb Stratosphere warming. In actuality it may very well be NAO. Even your posts can't ruin this happy hour run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Almost to 100 pages. Should we create a new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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