frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It fits. And not like its out of nowhere. The weeklies have been very good/great for many runs now. Last 2 are in the epic category. Plus, they have other model support as well, and fits the HL pattern due to the SSWE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow it's been that long? Sounds about right, lol (which makes our run of three consecutive years of +climo in that span kinda remarkable, right?) We did have a legit -NAO in Jan 2016, but it was short lived. Good enough to get us a KU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: 60"+ up here Jan '11, my second best 30 day period after ~100" Feb '15 in Boston. The weeklies remind me a lot of those periods. Hope Jebman has his shovel ready down there. 10-11 isnt fondly remembered here... lol. After the boxing day heartbreaker we got one solid event in Jan then winter was over. It was a nina so not going to worry much. Active southern stream this year should continue to feature miller A's and hybrids. Those are our "money" events. Although good blocking can save our area with miller b's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We did have a legit -NAO in Jan 2016, but it was short lived. Good enough to get us a KU. That was a weird neg nao. Def legit but bootleg in nature. I think jan/feb 2012 had a good neg nao but everything else sucked worse than chucks posts so nobody remembers 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 10-11 isnt fondly remembered here... lol. After the boxing day heartbreaker we got one solid event in Jan then winter was over. It was a nina so not going to worry much. Active southern stream this year should continue to feature miller A's and hybrids. Those are our "money" events. Although good blocking can save our area with miller b's I know Boxing Day was a disaster down there, but believe or not it was much hated up here in CT too. Wound up with 6" of wind-shredded baking powder while NY suburbs jacked 30". Eff that storm. I think we'll all be money at some point in the next three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weeklies imply the longest sustained wintertime -AO/-NAO in what, a decade? More? 09-10 for sure....Then 98-99 before that. If this pattern does materialize we are in for a real treat in February. And most likely that stands for the entire east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Between today’s EPS run and the weeklies, I don’t think I can recall every met on twitter weenieing the F out like this. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: I know Boxing Day was a disaster down there, but believe or not it was much hated up here in CT too. Wound up with 6" of wind-shredded baking powder while NY suburbs jacked 30". Eff that storm. I think we'll all be money at some point in the next three weeks. It's been a long time since the MA through SNE had a great stretch at the same time. JFM 2014 had a nice string of events but progressive flow kept qpf shields really small. Feb 2014 was a weird event and that was the biggest down here but iirc the low occluded early and screwed things up for you guys. Blocked long track coastals would be a lot of fun. I prefer when everyone gets snow as long as i get the most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weeklies imply the longest sustained wintertime -AO/-NAO in what, a decade? More? Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's been a long time since the MA through SNE had a great stretch at the same time. JFM 2014 had a nice string of events but progressive flow kept qpf shields really small. Feb 2014 was a weird event and that was the biggest down here but iirc the low occluded early and screwed things up for you guys. Blocked long track coastals would be a lot of fun. I prefer when everyone gets snow as long as i get the most. How'd you do 1/27/11? That wound up being a nice surprise event up here through Boston. Yeah the general experience has been either MA crushing with strong confluence and suppression depression up here, or late developing Miller B's that smoke CT river east and leave y'all dry. Would have no qualms about everybody getting the goods. Better NESIS rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That was a weird neg nao. Def legit but bootleg in nature. I think jan/feb 2012 had a good neg nao but everything else sucked worse than chucks posts so nobody remembers It was fairly brief, but man it was stout. And west based IIRC. Bootleg to me is when there is a transient ridge that pops in the NAO domain but is not persistent at all. Kinda just moving through. If we see +height anomalies around GL or Davis Strait that persist for a week or more, I would say its an actual block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: How'd you do 1/27/11? That wound up being a nice surprise event up here through Boston. Yeah the general experience has been either MA crushing with strong confluence and suppression depression up here, or late developing Miller B's that smoke CT river east and leave y'all dry. Would have no qualms about everybody getting the goods. Better NESIS rating. That was our only good event. It was above freezing before and during the heavy stuff but it came down so hard it didnt matter. Even had a period of thundersnow. I got about 10" iirc but further north in MD got up to 15". If it wasnt for that storm the winter would have been an epic disaster though. That was the only real event of the whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Quote Daily NAO indices for March 2018 (Negative values in bold) 2018 3 1 -1.719 2018 3 2 -1.372 2018 3 3 -1.218 2018 3 4 -0.851 2018 3 5 -0.736 2018 3 6 -0.697 2018 3 7 -0.636 2018 3 8 -0.686 2018 3 9 -0.687 2018 3 10 -0.411 2018 3 11 -0.200 2018 3 12 -0.068 2018 3 13 -0.016 2018 3 14 -0.060 2018 3 15 -0.321 2018 3 16 -0.602 2018 3 17 -0.707 2018 3 18 -0.889 2018 3 19 -0.955 2018 3 20 -0.676 2018 3 21 -0.293 2018 3 22 0.315 2018 3 23 0.539 2018 3 24 0.245 2018 3 25 -0.046 2018 3 26 0.038 2018 3 27 0.300 2018 3 28 0.130 2018 3 29 -0.074 2018 3 30 -0.111 2018 3 31 -0.154 Our last extended(ish) period of a generally -NAO was in March... And though it was only for a month, it did deliver. For the time being, it's nice to have a threat to track—regardless of whether or not it works out. It takes away some of the pain of this generally putrid pattern we've been stuck in While we've been looking two weeks ahead for these past two months, we can certainly hope that our "fabled" February is going to make an appearance ... soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Between today’s EPS run and the weeklies, I don’t think I can recall every met on twitter weenieing the F out like this. This surely can only mean one thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This surely can only mean one thing.. I know :-) Could it be HAMMER T I M E !!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This surely can only mean one thing.. Bermuda shorts season is upon us? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 @ji Whatever you do... don't look at the snow output for the weeklies control run. It went from over 3 feet to less than 3". Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @ji Whatever you do... don't look at the snow output for the weeklies control run. It went from over 3 feet to less than 3". Uh oh Too late, he already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: @ji Whatever you do... don't look at the snow output for the weeklies control run. It went from over 3 feet to less than 3". Uh oh Seems right..epic cold and blocking doesn’t mean epic snow. I bet RIC beats IAD this winter in snowfall. Just a hunch. They are off to a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @ji Whatever you do... don't look at the snow output for the weeklies control run. It went from over 3 feet to less than 3". Uh oh how...where is the snow now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: NC/SC will like it Did someone call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: how...where is the snow now? 4 ft in NC, 3 in central VA. Still around 10" for you tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: how...where is the snow now? Midwest and Northern New England. Mean still looks good though for here. Plenty cold on the Weeklies too. Judging by the 5 day increments on the Control, couple storms cut and some don't materialize until well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: how...where is the snow now? I think you're going to have to face the fact that your house isn't the bullseye this year. We just need to hope we get some scraps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: how...where is the snow now? Kinda sucks for everyone except northern vt/nh and main. Ens mean went up from last run though. Of course you would have to believe in 46 day snow progs before worrying and celebrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Kinda sucks for everyone except northern vt/nh and main. Ens mean went up from last run though. Of course you would have to believe in 46 day snow progs before worrying and celebrating. Narrator: He's worrying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 It's like it is everyone's mission to give Ji a heart attack....leave the poor guy alone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It's like it is everyone's mission to give Ji a heart attack....leave the poor guy alone. Yea, i'll have to find someone else to stress out. Who's that guy you keep bringing up who went on record in a newspaper for a big winter? Maybe i'll troll him and leave Ji alone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 10-11 isnt fondly remembered here... lol. After the boxing day heartbreaker we got one solid event in Jan then winter was over. It was a nina so not going to worry much. Active southern stream this year should continue to feature miller A's and hybrids. Those are our "money" events. Although good blocking can save our area with miller b's I was just thinking the same thing. I think a lot of people didn’t want to see snow after sitting in 10 hours of traffic in Commutageddon, but snow lovers weren’t happy with 1 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like I will have to charter a boat, head offshore 150 miles, and drop anchor for a month or so. 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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