clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: GFS/CMC similar in evolution. ICON out on its own....and the one we hug for now. ICON has a weaker HP over the top and stream interaction in time for us. CMC has a phase but its way too late for us. Still a long ways to go though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 As a follow up to the post early this AM, with new data the zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is actually a bit more negative and a ERA interim record yet again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: ICON has a weaker HP over the top and stream interaction in time for us. CMC has a phase but its way too late for us. Still a long ways to go though. Yep. Bob suggested the HP might bully it south. My gut thought that wouldnt happen this early in new regime, but it must have just been bad chili from the other day. Yeah, plenty of evolving left to do, but nowhere close to calling TOD to a 7 day threat. Fun to be back all the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Ukmet certainly looks interesting. Stronger southern stream s/w it appears. Better hgt rises out ahead of it. Don’t see much northern stream involvement though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The good news is that it may be rain anyway so people won’t have to see them get snow down there again. The air mass is putrid down in the gulf coast region on many of the ensemble members despite the fact that’s a perfect track for snow in BHM ATL GSP on many of the members it’s more likely than not to be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 46 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Looks like the 1/13 threat is gone. Onto 1/20 and beyond. Hopefully. great so you can stop posting for a while. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 for those who like lookin waayyyy out ahead, for fun, go to GFS and check out the 540's in central FLORIDA at hr 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 44 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: You are a horrible addition to this forum. 38 minutes ago, RDM said: Ditto - it appears he doesn't even take time to read the other posts on the same topic/threat. Needs to post less and read more. 37 minutes ago, pasnownut said: With all due respect...... Shut up. The threat I wish was gone was him. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: The threat I wish was gone was him. On behalf of us "northerners"...... I apologize. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Gefs look pretty good. Better timing of s/w not to deep into the nw flow which allows for better hgt rises. 24hr qpf mean off gefs 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 This is the best the GEFS has looked for next weekend. eta: ninja’d by Tombo (great to see you here man!) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 back this West a few hundred miles and boy oh boy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: for those who like lookin waayyyy out ahead, for fun, go to GFS and check out the 540's in central FLORIDA at hr 360 Yeah...a pretty extreme look out at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looking forward to Bob’s meteogram from WxBell since there is a marked increase on the snowfall maps for DC for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Gefs look pretty good. Better timing of s/w not to deep into the nw flow which allows for better hgt rises. 24hr qpf mean off gefs Wow. a little "in fighting" amongst themselves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Wow gefs with a strong signal. I might have to start taking this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Did not expect this after seeing Op., but hey....ok So now GEFS/Icon want it snow round here....glad to see the potential is still out there. Looked like it the other day, and at least we may have something to track other than rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wow gefs with a strong signal. I might have to start taking this seriously. Interesting that the GEFS usually plays follow the leader...clearly not at 12z though. I wonder if they’re onto something...weenie handbook says yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Seems the mean is skewed by a few big hits but GEFS (I’ll take e9 please) definitely showing the potential for this system if we can get a strong SS SW, not too much confluence that surpesses things, and/or phasing with the NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Gefs look pretty good. Better timing of s/w not to deep into the nw flow which allows for better hgt rises. 24hr qpf mean off gefs Wow, very nice look, scoring on the front end of a pattern flip would be awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: back this West a few hundred miles and boy oh boy. LOL that looks just like 2-23-89 almost across the board at H5 across the nation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL that looks just like 2-23-89 almost across the board at H5 across the nation Enlighten us/me.... (you guys and your ability to remember stuff just astounds me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: great so you can stop posting for a while. Yeah. Not much to talk about for awhile it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yeah. Not much to talk about for awhile it seems. Hearing rumors winter just got cancelled. Check back next year.....K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yeah. Not much to talk about for awhile it seems. That hasn’t stopped you yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yeah. Not much to talk about for awhile it seems. How do we block you in real life? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Enlighten us/me.... (you guys and your ability to remember stuff just astounds me) Whatever it is it couldn't have been good up here, lol (I'm just going by what our seasonal snowfall was that year!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Enlighten us/me.... (you guys and your ability to remember stuff just astounds me) The Jersey shore got crushed. Sunny skies back here along I-95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looks far more likely chance for suppression then rain. Snower or no goer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: Seems the mean is skewed by a few big hits but GEFS (I’ll take e9 please) definitely showing the potential for this system if we can get a strong SS SW, not too much confluence that surpesses things, and/or phasing with the NS. I like e19 because “North trend” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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