January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Eps snowfall map though 360 is a disaster

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps snowfall map though 360 is a disaster

Didn’t you get the memo that we’re punting through 1/20?

[MD Snow]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps snowfall map though 360 is a disaster

Remember when it showed the cities in like the 4-5 inch range for a week straight back at the beginning of December? How'd that work out for us? Model's are just starting to get a handle on the pattern flip. Give it a couple days. I'd be shocked if we are sitting in the same place in terms of snowfall on the eps come Mon-Tues of next week. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps snowfall map though 360 is a disaster

It doesn't look any worse than the last 2 runs.

I honestly wish snowfall mean maps didn't exist. Has little value unless there is a persistent, discrete threat showing up on guidance inside of day 10 IMO.

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It doesn't look any worse than the last 2 runs.

I honestly wish snowfall mean maps didn't exist. Has little value unless there is a persistent, discrete threat showing up on guidance inside of day 10 IMO.

I agree with this. Everyone always posts those stupid maps and then we get no snow. They are worthless.

[wkd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That guy. 

I made a New Years resolution to not waste time arguing with people who claim things that actually have happened can't happen or are impossible.  This doesn't pertain just to weather. 

Had to laugh at this. My father was an electronics engineer and very knowledgeable in math and physics. Up until he passed he insisted a breaking ball was impossible. Nothing I said or showed him could make him consder otherwise. (Maybe it is an optical illusion ).

[MD Snow]

It's the ICON but looks to be headed in the right direction at the end of its run for Sat-Sun...it's got the general idea at least. 

[nj2va]

Another positive (pun intended) is that the positive heights which had been showing up over the east on the GEFS aren’t persistent in the LR.  

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That guy. 

I made a New Years resolution to not waste time arguing with people who claim things that actually have happened can't happen or are impossible.  This doesn't pertain just to weather. 

That actually happens enough in your life to require a NY resolution? Time to find some new friends.

[clskinsfan]

 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I want no part of a severely displaced PV into the Conus.  For everytime that lead to a big snow blitz there are two examples where we got some crazy 1-2 week cold and dry and that's it. The most common outcomes seem to be "some snow" but nothing epic. Our real extreme snow periods are 90% from a combo of stj activity timed up with a favorable blocking/high pressure alignment up top, usually with a tpv in the 50/50 space or sometimes to our west in Canada but usually nowhere near us.  I obviously wasn't clear and there are variables. If the epo is positive then we might need a further displaced PV to help offset. But i was kind of running off the assumption we develop a -epo -nao regime and in that case if I had to choose I would rather have no PV and roll the dice during mid winter than contend with a poorly placed one that runs interference more often then if aids in some crazy event. Now if I wanted straight cold PV is the way to go. 

Agreed. The majority of our huge events have the PV acting as a 50/50 with strong blocking over the top. The current model runs have the PV staying up close to the arctic. I dont know how that works out for us. But I would actually like to see the models showing the PV diving down into  eastern Canada at some point. If we get the strong -NAO that would obviously help displace it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just pulling your chain a little.  When it comes to Miller B's for this region we are typically the hounds underneath the dinner table hoping that the weather Gods throw us some scraps. I will leave it at that as that horse has been beaten to death as I see others have chimed in. 

Now you northeners typically can score big on a Miller B or 3 on any given year but I am just not so sure this will be one of those years. But then again I can see this being a big year as well. Just too many unknowns at this time IMO most of which are centered on what we see in regards to the SSW/Split and its impacts on the trop pv. At this time I an starting to believe we see a very volatile period late Jan into Feb with extremes across the board for the N Hemi. because of this SSW/Split. Now at this time it is mostly guesswork on how this will play out.

But I do think one thing is coming into focus somewhat. And that is I believe the models are suggesting and/or moving towards is a major displacement south of a piece of the pv into Canada. Just a gut feeling but I believe this might be of a long duration nature to boot. If that is the case you are pretty much riding on the mercies of the Snow Gods on where they place that feature. If that gets planted over top of you then it may be time to take up another hobby for awhile besides snow chasing. Hell, we could even be looking at issues down here in the Mid-Atlantic with suppression in that scenario if that feature comes too far south. Though if we continue to see an active southern stream and bouts of SE ridging that could offset the impacts down here and actually put us in favorable setup as the boundary focuses through our region. Think the best placement for all concerned (mid-Atlantic/NE) is to see the pv planted to the west of our longitude over top the lakes. Depending on exact placement that could put us all into a very favorable setup. Of course we could also see the pv shoved towards the 50/50 region as well which has its possibilities but headaches as well. 

This is placement will be pretty much predicated on how we see the height builds (which I strongly believe we see) over the pole occur. And this will probably come down to the interplay of the EPO/PNA ridge and the -NAO/or lack of -NAO. If we see these height builds originating mostly from a strong EPO/PNA with a weak -NAO to offset it then you and possibly us are SOL as that will probably force the pv generally over top of us. Of course if the height builds over the pole is all EPO/PNA driven we more then likely see the pv shoved towards southern Greenland. Best case scenario in my mind is seeing a strong and/or west based -NAO working in tandem with the EPO/PNA which should slot the pv's southward intrusion into a favorable locale for both of us.

There are other thoughts I have as well but I have already been long winded enough. Just know that I feel that no one really has a clue on how our sensible weather will play out for the duration of the winter. They can make educated guesses, but that is all they are, guesses.

Yes, I mented northern stream nuances such as PV placement and confluence as two wild cards that can alter the typical weak modoki storm track. There is a part of me that wishes that the SSW had not taken place, since it adds another element into in already perfect seasonal canvass.

We'll see.

[anotherman]

That actually happens enough in your life to require a NY resolution? Time to find some new friends.

Check the news.

[Scud]

On 1/2/2019 at 5:13 PM, KamuSnow said:

First true Continental Polar airmass into Eastern US of January. Things they are a changing.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, wkd said:

Had to laugh at this. My father was an electronics engineer and very knowledgeable in math and physics. Up until he passed he insisted a breaking ball was impossible. Nothing I said or showed him could make him consder otherwise. (Maybe it is an optical illusion ).

Actually had this problem in a Calculus or Physics course in college. A curve ball does "break" and as I recall it can be proven with basic differential equations used in fluid mechanics, and a little trig.

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

It's the ICON but looks to be headed in the right direction at the end of its run for Sat-Sun...it's got the general idea at least. 

It is honking at H5 for sure.

[MillvilleWx]

28 minutes ago, wkd said:

Had to laugh at this. My father was an electronics engineer and very knowledgeable in math and physics. Up until he passed he insisted a breaking ball was impossible. Nothing I said or showed him could make him consder otherwise. (Maybe it is an optical illusion ).

I swung and missed a bunch of illusions when I was playing baseball

[MD Snow]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is honking at H5 for sure.

Looks like northern stream pieces phase in before it makes the turn up the coast. The GFS holds the phase until past our latitude. 

[poolz1]

CMC appears to be a big hit...

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

See my post to cape. Ideally when we have nao and epo blocking we just want higher heights all over Canada and a tpv stuck under the block around the 50/50 region. That doesn't mean there can't be weak vortices that are barely or not even below normal heights up there but seeing a lot of blue over southern Canada during a -nao regime isn't a snow look for us. If a PV there is too strong it can be suppressive or it can also promote NS vorts to track through the lakes around that PV in Canada also running interference.  When we see snow events that had a PV there it's usually when we had a less ideal longwave pattern and that PV altered it into a workable one like 2015 or 2014. If (big if) we get a great nao and epo look going i would rather just see red all across Canada on the h5 plots. 

I get what you are saying. I really do. Short of the pv planting around the 50/50 you would prefer the pv/s to withdraw onto the other side of the globe because you feel that is where are best chances lie if we do get the projected pattern. But as with anything it has it potential drawbacks as well. And that is of temps. Now in the heart of winter temps are much more forgiving but as we move out of it the temps will get dicier and dicier. At this point I feel that we may see this general pattern set up for the long haul well into March. So though we can continue to score on what you want it will become harder and harder the later in the winter we move. I on the other hand, and I believe @C.A.P.E.as well, think our better odds lie elsewhere and that is of the pv planted on this side of the globe to provide better cold. So though we may see the pv potentially run interference at times we also have better cold throughout the period that increases our odds moving into spring over your scenario. Also the fact we are seeing a strong active SS and periods of a SE ridging leads me to believe would could potential score big as they duke it out with any southerly displaced PV.

But this is all just a matter of opinion and really doesn't mean squat because both scenarios have a good deal of potential with them and the weather is just going to do what it wants to do anyway.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I swung and missed a bunch of illusions when I was playing baseball

Not big into poetry, But I always loved this one-

Pitcher
by Robert Francis

His art is eccentricity, his aim
How not to hit the mark he seems to aim at,

His passion how to avoid the obvious,
His technique how to vary the avoidance.

The others throw to be comprehended. He
Throws to be a moment misunderstood.

Yet not too much. Not errant, arrant, wild,
But every seeming aberration willed.

Not to, yet still, still to communicate
Making the batter understand too late.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Looks like northern stream pieces phase in before it makes the turn up the coast. The GFS holds the phase until past our latitude. 

Liking where the GFS is heading.  Better look already at 156 no matter the result.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

CMC appears to be a big hit...

Looks like a lot of rain with bookend snow. The slp tucking and stacking like that would wreck the mids in between front end snow and ull taking over. Interesting solution but def not an all snow storm. 

[MD Snow]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Looks like a lot of rain with bookend snow. The slp tucking and stacking like that would wreck the mids in between front end snow and ull taking over. Interesting solution but def not an all snow storm. 

Which is fine at this range...

[frd]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I on the other hand, and I believe @C.A.P.E.as well, think our better odds lie elsewhere and that is of the pv planted on this side of the globe to provide better cold. So though we may see the pv potentially run interference at times we also have better cold throughout the period that increases our odds moving into spring over your scenario. Also the fact we are seeing a strong active SS and periods of a SE ridging leads me to believe would could potential score big as they duke it out with any southerly displaced PV.

We should see the pv / blocking, etc. phase and oscillate over a period of weeks,  enabling multiple threats if things progress in our favor.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Liking where the GFS is heading.  Better look already at 156 no matter the result.

I see nothing of interest.  What am I missing?

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I see nothing of interest.  What am I missing?

My thoughts exactly!

 

[Scud]

5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

CMC appears to be a big hit...

CMS has been good this year.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, MD Snow said:

Which is fine at this range...

It is. A lot of non storm solutions ongoing so anything that shows promise is good. I said it yesterday but the setup is really complicated with multiple shortwaves and both streams interacting. Far away from knowing how it will evolve. We dont do complicated well here so my hedge is on the non event side of things

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I see nothing of interest.  What am I missing?

I DO NOT look at finer details on OP runs at such lead times.  I look at bigger picture items.  Flow above us is cleaner, less convoluted than a few runs ago.  While I'm rooting this (and every other) opp for snow on....I'm just stating that I like the progression of the models.  Thats all.  Not in any way saying there will be a snowstorm, but theres enough to keep interest

[MD Snow]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It is. A lot of non storm solutions ongoing so anything that shows promise is good. I said it yesterday but the setup is really complicated with multiple shortwaves and both streams interacting. Far away from knowing how it will evolve. We dont do complicated well here so my hedge is on the non event side of things

Any thoughts why the GFS just spit out the solution that it did at 12z for next weekend? Am i wrong to think northern stream shot out a little in front of southern stream wave and didn't dig it up the coast? Kind of squashed it before it had time to take the full turn? Sorry for my amateur wording.