aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Certainly have been some more encouraging signs in the last 48 hours, but I'd strongly caution against spiking the football. Any snow before the last week-10 days of the month is probably bonus. At this point I'd like to see continued in stability in the ensemble systems forecasting a pattern change +/- the 15th and no signs that it turns into a 2-3 day transitory "good" pattern that's immediately flushed back out by Pac garbage. If things are still stable and looking good beyond the end of the forecast range in 5-7 more days, I think we can start expecting some legit winter. Man...go ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, andyhb said: That is not a +PNA. Semantics. Still looks pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL I don't predict long range clown maps. I predict seasons and storms. We'll see. We will certainly will see Ray. Regardless of the snow amounts forecasted by the Euro, it is still gratifying to many to witness cold storms modeled after the recent despair. It is interesting to see the transition to colder / stormier modeled very close to your suggested date of Jan 15 th. I never lost hope. The progression moving forward will be fascinating to monitor. I hope we all cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Where's that new guy from central PA in central PA 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope. Don’t fall into the trap/cycle. Agreed, I know I said the other day that I was returning my brand new snow blower but...…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope. Don’t fall into the trap/cycle. This could be the ultimate trap. Rockstar pattern in real time but a shutout with snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Agreed, I know I said the other day that I was returning my brand new snow blower but...…. Not the damn snow blower...When i was prematurely spiking the football i forgot about the snowblower lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: We will certainly will see Ray. Regardless of the snow amounts forecasted by the Euro, it is still gratifying to many to witness cold storms modeled after the recent despair. It is interesting to see the transition to colder / stormier modeled very close to your suggested date of Jan 15 th. I never lost hope. The progression moving forward will be fascinating to monitor. I hope we all cash in. My prime KU window is 1/20 to 2/20....thinking 2 dropping fairly widespread 20"+ . 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This could be the ultimate trap. Rockstar pattern in real time but a shutout with snowfall. This. We need a hit to the north and east like the Euro says to complete the DC snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My prime KU window is 1/20 to 2/20....thinking 2 dropping fairly widespread 20"+ . Ray, if you can comment, just wondering about this......will there be a point later this month, or in early Feb., where you may have new data / insights for this coming March? I believe I skimmed a post you made here last night ( maybe to @psuhoffman ) where you stated the nature of the ongoing SSWE event may extend our oppurtunities into March this year? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 hours ago, frd said: Fascinating here. I believe the reversal a while back was not forecasted this low. This is a new interim record for the date for 10 hPa60N We are also ahead of 1985 @Isotherm Tom mentioned 1985 in a few posts a couple days back. Lined up with his mention of this timeframe. It also appears more warming is on the way. PV-Forecast @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago More The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985 Yes, @frd -- NAM diminution 1 week from SPV-split on track, as well as nascent -NAO, and more felicitous EPO/PNA domain as a function of propagating tropical forcing; ERW contamination finally decreases w/ MJO coherency uptick into phase 8 over the next several days. Good to see model data reaching concordance on the reality of tropospheric alterations today, and I think it's ostensible that the GEFS had the upper hand w/ respect to the detection phase [this was expected due to MJO disparities]. All in all, the winter outlook is still on the table. And yes, I'm not sure if I posted this here, but below is the NYC data for December 1984 and January 1985. The SPV-split [EQBO] occurred January 2nd, 1985. The temperature reversal really intensified January 8th+. Will be similar this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My prime KU window is 1/20 to 2/20....thinking 2 dropping fairly widespread 20"+ . That sounds great... for your area. But what about the mid-Atlantic that doesn't do well in Miller Bs which I believe you are keying in on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Good to see model data reaching concordance on the reality of tropospheric alterations today, and I think it's ostensible that the GEFS had the upper hand w/ respect to the detection phase [this was expected due to MJO disparities]. All in all, the winter outlook is still on the table. Thanks Tom for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Bomb cyclone redux wont sit well for 95% of us Fringed. But in perfect position for right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is awesome, I've been watching that pond ridge north of Alaska pop up on the last few runs.. we could go back to strong -AO Yes sir. That map is gorgeous. And if we can get to that -AO we are golden. And it would stick around for a while as well. I cant believe the change in the models over the past 3 days. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: CPC on board for transition to colder than average pattern and wintry precipitation for mid-Atlantic (week 3-4 discussion lead by S. Baxter) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ This is encouraging beyod anything I have seen. Baxter is a Jedi not given to emotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I saw some talk earlier about the Euro Control HECS. Here it is in ANSI: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: I saw some talk earlier about the Euro Control HECS. Here it is in ANSI: So that’s what HECS looks like on Atari 5 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 -NAO already rolling south on 1-9 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: CPC on board for transition to colder than average pattern and wintry precipitation for mid-Atlantic (week 3-4 discussion lead by S. Baxter) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Yeah, but about 10days ago they were also projecting much more cold for Jan 7th thru the 18th. Guess that ain't happenin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: You will be measuring snowstorms without your ruler shortly. Hang in there. Damn. So he’ll have to be measuring storms 2” at time? See what I did there? If you don’t get it....you don’t get it. LOLz. Happy Friday happy hour!! Good grief. Bartender. Check please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, paulythegun said: I saw some talk earlier about the Euro Control HECS. Here it is in ANSI: Is that mixing? I’ll pass. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The SOI is finally taking a plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The d9 deal is really complicated. Huge spread in the eps with how multiple shortwaves progress at the same time. Nothing any op model shows is anything more than being inside the spread. Euro op phased things late. 18z gfs keeps the northern stream shortwave fairly strong and dominent. Expect many twists and turns. Could be a huge storm somehwere or could be a total non event everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The d9 deal is really complicated. Huge spread in the eps with how multiple shortwaves progress at the same time. Nothing any op model shows is anything more than being inside the spread. Euro op phased things late. 18z gfs keeps the northern stream shortwave fairly strong and dominent. Expect many twists and turns. Could be a huge storm somehwere or could be a total non event everywhere. More looks like a s/w on steriods at 216 lol... which is also too bad since there is a nice ridge right where we want it if we are looking for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, yoda said: More looks like a s/w on steriods at 216 lol Yea, heavy on the northern stream doesnt work well in these parts. Euro blew up the southern shortwave. Eps shows more than the kitchen sink. This one will end up feeling like tracking multiple events by the time its figured out. It's all we got tho so may as well overanalyze it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: More looks like a s/w on steriods at 216 lol... which is also too bad since there is a nice ridge right where we want it if we are looking for snow Look how far it has come since 6z. I would say more than a few ticks improved. Might be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Thanks Tom for the update. Does isothem really talk like that. Reminds me of sheldon from the science comedy on CBS lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Yea, heavy on the northern stream doesnt work well in these parts. Euro blew up the southern shortwave. Eps shows more than the kitchen sink. This one will end up feeling like tracking multiple events by the time its figured out. It's all we got tho so may as well overanalyze itGfs still gets us nasty frozen mix which was your goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Winter returning with a vengeance. Of course if it’s dry... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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