aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Bomb cyclone redux wont sit well for 95% of us The time is coming...is it more painful to be in a shutout pattern or in a hey look over there it's snowing pattern? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 This board though...5pm yesterday was the lowest I’ve seen it around here. For the threat next week, remember, the beginning of a pattern flip like what we’ve got coming up, will almost always favors areas to our north. Our time will come. Remember as of yesterday if I would have seriously talked about any threat next week I probably would have been banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: we dont want the euro solution....looks like Dec 30,2000...urg...late developing storm Go back and look at what it had at 0z lol. Seems there might be some middle ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: The time is coming...is it more painful to be in a shutout pattern or in a hey look over there it's snowing pattern? Subjective question. For me, shutouts are the worst by a good margin. We generally need 4 chances for each event. The most common way we get snow is by being on the outside looking in first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I guess a return to winter weather pattern would be nice but this would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Bomb cyclone redux wont sit well for 95% of us Smokes eastern NJ up through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 @40/70 Benchmark hey you called it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: I guess a return to winter weather pattern would be nice but this would suck. Only 9 days to get a 50-75 mile shift. Admittedly thats going to be difficult. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro doubles my seasonal total heading into a major pattern change. I’d gladly take that. This place is a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Lets hope that is the first of many. They get it first and then we do. Like @Bob Chill said , but 32 inches, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Smokes eastern NJ up through SNE. D10 euro h5 looks really good when you extrapolate. 12z eps should up the ante across the board. I pretty much wrote off Jan this week so if we fail d10 it wont bug me at all as long as there are more ops on the radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: @40/70 Benchmark hey you called it That would be a disaster. I'd rather get nothing. Good thing it's not accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The time is coming...is it more painful to be in a shutout pattern or in a hey look over there it's snowing pattern? But at least I could now drive over there, unlike recently where you would have to drive to New Mexico to chase snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 If the 13th storm misses east like the Euro mostly says today a drying pattern looks to starts after tomorrow for a couple of weeks maybe. The VF3 and GFS are showing it to some extent to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: D10 euro h5 looks really good when you extrapolate. 12z eps should up the ante across the board. I pretty much wrote off Jan this week so if we fail d10 it wont bug me at all as long as there are more ops on the radar I have been cautiously optimistic, but given how quickly things seem to be changing in our favor over the last day or 2, mid month might be our first legit threat window in what seems like forever. But yeah beyond that the h5 looks are beginning to look very palatable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have been cautiously optimistic, but given how quickly things seem to be changing in our favor over the last day or 2, mid month might be our first legit threat window in what seems like forever. But yeah beyond that the looks are beginning to look very palatable. It would literally take just a sneeze to turn this into a snowstorm here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 55 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Bob’s deb phase lasted about 3 days. That wasnt very well-modeled either in advance. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: D10 euro h5 looks really good when you extrapolate. 12z eps should up the ante across the board. I pretty much wrote off Jan this week so if we fail d10 it wont bug me at all as long as there are more ops on the radar no you wouldnt----you would be crushed if the euro verified as is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: no you wouldnt----you would be crushed if the euro verified as is It would def suck but still far better than a stable Pac barforama EPS is going to probably freak us out in a good way here shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 How is that even possible? The DC snow hole is real: FV3 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It would def suck but still far better than a stable Pac barforama I bet the EPS shows we might be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just goes to show how quick things can change in this biz. We were mired in a Pacific puke shutout pattern with no end in sight and now we have the EURO teasing with a potential KU inside of 10 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Ji must not have seen the JMA yet...extrapolating from 192 is a HECS. 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would def suck but still far better than a stable Pac barforama EPS is going to probably freak us out in a good way here shortly. EPS has an impressive cold outbreak in the east at the end of next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The trend this season has been for models to slow down progression of systems....Have not seen a storm track like the euro has yet this cold season (that I can remember). Weenie optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I think the corner has been turned. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the corner has been turned. Cue the 'It's Happening' meme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 One in 50 chance. I'll take it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The time is coming...is it more painful to be in a shutout pattern or in a hey look over there it's snowing pattern? See...I know for me, the shutout pattern is more peaceful. The "Hey look over there" pattern bothers me more because of the close misses that can ensue (especially when you've had a run of those the last couple of years) Guess it feels better if we're all kinda disappointed together, lol (and that we've earned a good hit!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 You know we have had a bad season when we are looking at individual members of the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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