psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Wow...great find! Gives even more credence to them going forward When did you get a new tag DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't disagree with anything but its really hard to accept how atrocious the high latitudes look d15. The flip to a decent pattern has a long ways to go from the end of the EPS. If Jan is a shutout then this winter sucks no matter how good Feb is. Significant challenges to even having a chance at beating climo. I guess but the HL looked crappy on the weeklies for the same time frame, and the pattern still evolved to very workable by the 22nd. I'm just hoping the EPS are still on the same "schedule", and if so, we are looking at the 20th or just beyond. I have long since accepted that the first 2 weeks or so of Jan are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If Jan is a shutout then this winter sucks no matter how good Feb is. Significant challenges to even having a chance at beating climo. This is where I'm getting to. If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: This is where I'm getting to. If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th. Yea, the dearth of even getting a couple dustings is depressing AF. There's a difference between winters with crappy patterns that drop an inch here and there and ones that do nothing but rain for 2 straight months. I'm at the point where i would celebrate a glaze of zr with a cutter running into a musty stanky rotten airmass. Can't even pull that off. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol Lol despite the sexier HL look, the (advertised) ground truth on the last few GFS/GEFS runs for our region is pretty toasty- not much different than the EPS with it's shiitty look up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is where I'm getting to. If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th. It’s still possible that this winter won’t suck if we go on a heater in Feb and March and hit climo. It took a while for things to flip in 2015 and no one would say that winter sucked. What makes this winter so rough is the let down from the forecasts of a big winter. December is supposed to suck but losing January is a kick in the face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I guess but the HL looked crappy on the weeklies for the same time frame, and the pattern still became very workable by the 22nd. I'm just hoping the EPS are still on the same "schedule", and if so, we are looking at the 20th or just beyond. I have long since accepted that the first 2 weeks or so of Jan are toast. This is where I’m at. Even if the GEFS is too rushed (which is probable), if the EPS follows the progression of the latest weeklies, we’d be back in a pattern that would allow chances after the 20th. I wrote off the first half of January before Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, the dearth of even getting a couple dustings is depressing AF. There's a difference between winters with crappy patterns that drop an inch here and there and ones that do nothing but rain for 2 straight months. I'm at the point where i would celebrate a glaze of zr with a cutter running into a musty stanky rotten airmass. Can't even pull that off. Wtf I’m frankly shocked at what a total shutout it’s been. December was warm, but you’d think with much AN precip and “only” a +3 departure we’d have gotten some slop. But no. And now looks like 2-3 more weeks of the same at least. Might have to root for the trace free winter season if we get to Jan 31 like this. If we’re going to fail, let’s #bebest. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m frankly shocked at what a total shutout it’s been. December was warm, but you’d think with much AN precip and “only” a +3 departure we’d have gotten some slop. But no. And now looks like 2-3 more weeks of the same at least. Might have to root for the trace free winter season if we get to Jan 31 like this. If we’re going to fail, let’s #bebest. Well, by BWI records, that's happened only once in the last 136 years (January 1937)! And really, only 5 Januaries on record featured just a trace! (Last one was January 2005) Meanwhile...16 Januaries have received measurable snow under an inch... So we could be wading into historic territory here if things don't turn around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I am working very hard to suppress my inner Deb. I believe the best global model in the world is on schedule to begin revealing the pattern of all our hopes and dreams, at 0z, and will continue the trend at 12z tomorrow. Anddddd.. the new version of the weeklies tomorrow will not kick the can down the road (anymore than a day or 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I’m frankly shocked at what a total shutout it’s been. December was warm, but you’d think with much AN precip and “only” a +3 departure we’d have gotten some slop. But no. And now looks like 2-3 more weeks of the same at least. Might have to root for the trace free winter season if we get to Jan 31 like this. If we’re going to fail, let’s #bebest. Could root for a trace free “winter” but I’m pretty sure between the early November storm and the early December storm most of us have seen something... not to diminish the disappointment of this winter so far. Can’t believe I punked myself into raising my guesses in the contest twice, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Here is the GEFS from 18z 12/26 for 00z Thursday vs the 18z run today for the same time. Actually did pretty well except for the strength/position of the SE ridge, 50/50 low, and the AO region. Handled the GL blocking and Pacific very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am working very hard to suppress my inner Deb. I believe the best global model in the world is on schedule to begin revealing the pattern of all our hopes and dreams, at 0z, and will continue the trend at 12z tomorrow. Anddddd.. the new version of the weeklies tomorrow will not kick the can down the road (anymore than a day or 2). I’m right there with you keeping the optimism alive for the pattern change coming soon. The mood here isn’t helped by a complete shutout north of PWC since the November storm. #staystrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Could root for a trace free “winter” but I’m pretty sure between the early November storm and the early December storm most of us have seen something... not to diminish the disappointment of this winter so far. Can’t believe I punked myself into raising my guesses in the contest twice, haha. Yeah, I was just referring to DJF. But not even a trace in December, followed up by the same in January would be a historic fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 One thing that is troubling is even when the trough axis is right over us the heights are still above normal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: One thing that is troubling is even when the trough axis is right over us the heights are still above normal. I saw that too on the 18z gefs. Mids and surface are warm. 850s arent a furnace like the eps but still AN d10-16. Nobody predicted the magnitude of how bad this winter has been along the east coast and mid west. The SE scored nicely during the only legit storm pattern we've had all winter. Other than that short stretch in early Dec its been abysmal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One thing that is troubling is even when the trough axis is right over us the heights are still above normal. This is what I was pointing out after the 12z run. If you loop the past runs of the GEFS though the above normal heights are becoming muted. That makes more sense with the look in the HL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I saw that too on the 18z gefs. Mids and surface are warm. 850s arent a furnace like the eps but still AN d10-16. Nobody predicted the magnitude of how bad this winter has been along the east coast and mid west. The SE scored nicely during the only legit storm pattern we've had all winter. Other than that short stretch in early Dec its been abysmal. i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Here's a good visual of the past 2 runs of the GEFS at the same time stamp. The ridge in the east is much more muted. Hopefully this trend continues over the next few days. I'm just so ready to get out of this stinking shut out pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels We're basically half way there. Probably get to 2/3rds without a hitch. Long rangers are getting nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Fv3 throws some hope into a steaming pot of hopelessness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Atleast we are starting to get some looks in the LR. I hope that implies we are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Edit : Ninjaed by @Bob ChiII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're basically half way there. Probably get to 2/3rds without a hitch. Long rangers are getting nervous... CWG sold their soul and reputation to Judah Cohen https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?utm_term=.e3de6c1cdff2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels I remember that too. That was a horrible winter. I think we had a early snow that year also. At least here in Central Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels He pretty much did as did most. There was a trof in the east the majority of the winter. Still the 18Z GFS makes no sense at 384. You can’t have that sort of pattern and be THAT much above normal. The vortex is pretty far up in Canada but the pattern out west would mostly filter Canadian or arctic air south. It would never be worse than near normal in that setup. 01-02 had a much worse pattern out west than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 it’s Jan 2nd...yes Ilearned how to use a calendar. Time is on our side for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We can't get a ridge in the Davis Straight. There is really something to ice depth.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess our only hope now is that you guys ability to predict weather is as good as your ability to predict weather 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I guess our only hope now is that you guys ability to predict weather is as good as your ability to predict weather Visions of cold and a skiff of snow on the 15th came to me in a dream, and was followed by many blizzards. Please don't like this post, Chuck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: CWG sold their soul and reputation to Judah Cohen https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?utm_term=.e3de6c1cdff2 That's really kinda sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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