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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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If we can get that strong west based -NAO to develop we will get some cold air into the area. But that appears to be a big if. We have basically had a neutral NAO for a month. And when it has dipped negative it has been east based and worthless for us. With a crappy PAC it might be one of the only things that can save us.

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A week ago the EPS had a great look. It busted. It can bust. I don't know if it will here but it's been awful at range. The heights are still rising in the NW day 15 but it sucks waiting a week longer then the gfs to get things started. 

 

@psuhoffman, Wonder if the EPS is simply incorrect due to the continued robust SSWE  / split , MJO interplay, etc. I am impling the event is taking on an even grander scale of cause and effect wi the MJO. Not sure whether @Isotherm can chime in.  A few weeks ago the event was not certain, now it is happening and further warming is forecasted . What does this do? You have to think - casuse and effect. Like the dude from the Matrix reloaded ...

Honestly those looking for the SSWE to be shown in the modeling world correctly, well frankly maybe it is still too early. Some models are sniffing it out but some are not. 

And yes, I would like the so called most accurate model by physics and machine learning to show the colder solution, in this case I am very puzzled. 

What a mess right now. Been like this for days so far. 

Wonder if the EPS simply turns on a dime and we get the so called pattern change we envision . or if this get pushed down the line to Feb . 

 

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33 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want.  I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse.  We’ll see.

U could also argue u would expect the gefs and geps to start looking worse.

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We got a lot more snow when the strat PV was a cold consolidated beast

OK, OK, it's my fault. Bristow told me that buying a snow blower would be the kiss of death but I went out and did it anyway. So for the sake of everyone on this thread, I will be returning the snow blower tonight. We should be seeing better results starting with the 0z runs overnight, especially with the EPS!

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

OK, OK, it's my fault. Bristow told me that buying a snow blower would be the kiss of death but I went out and did it anyway. So for the sake of everyone on this thread, I will be returning the snow blower tonight. We should be seeing better results starting with the 0z runs overnight, especially with the EPS!

Don't do it.

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

OK, OK, it's my fault. Bristow told me that buying a snow blower would be the kiss of death but I went out and did it anyway. So for the sake of everyone on this thread, I will be returning the snow blower tonight. We should be seeing better results starting with the 0z runs overnight, especially with the EPS!

Good man. Take one for the team and the cause.  If it snows and you need help shoveling just let me know I’ll be upstairs asleep. 

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down.  Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS.  The Euro OP blinked first...maybe EPS will be next (at 00z?)

I'm going with that thought regarding the EPS - sometimes the Euro does that (lag from the op to the ens). Maybe because of the changes/transition going on?

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

A week ago the EPS had a great look. It busted. It can bust. I don't know if it will here but it's been awful at range. The heights are still rising in the NW day 15 but it sucks waiting a week longer then the gfs to get things started. 

The h5 look on the EPS should become noticeably more favorable over the next couple runs. Today's 12z run ends on Jan 17th. The advertised h5 look from today's run aligns quite well with the 17th from the most recent edition of the weeklies. I know for some the the progression seems painfully slowwww or non-existent, but it is in pretty good alignment with the look and the timing from the weeklies of a few days ago- the EPO ridge started to really take shape around the 18-19th, and the overall pattern became progressively more favorable from there. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Spot on

It's actually pretty close except there is more -nao now...

Of all the years on here when models were on separate pages and we waited for one to blink which one usually does?

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The h5 look on the EPS should become noticeably more favorable over the next couple runs. Today's 12z run ends on Jan 17th. The advertised h5 look from today's run aligns quite well with the 17th from the most recent edition of the weeklies. I know for some the the progression seems painfully slowwww or non-existent, but it is in pretty good alignment with the look and the timing from the weeklies of a few days ago- the EPO ridge started to really take shape around the 18-19th, and the overall pattern became progressively more favorable from there. 

Don't disagree with anything but its really hard to accept how atrocious the high latitudes look d15. The flip to a decent pattern has a long ways to go from the end of the EPS. If Jan is a shutout then this winter sucks no matter how good Feb is. Significant challenges to even having a chance at beating climo. 

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