nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Amazing how quick things can change when the pac jet gets deflected away from a direct shot into the west. Euro op was a very good run imo Really encouraging run today and it’d argue we flip the switch from shutout to trackable. Hopefully EPS continues the trend...we’ll know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 GEFS looking even better with agreement on the TPV making a trip south. Some nice gradient patterns in the mix here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has snow in the deep south next Saturday(the 12th)(Miss,alabama,etc) I hear if it snows in Cuba first, it’s sets the stage for us to get cold smoked later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS looking even better with agreement on the TPV making a trip south. Some nice gradient patterns in the mix here... We need that SE ridge to maintain a little flex and not get completely crushed then yes this has all the markings of an epic gradient or sw flow event pattern setting up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: I hear if it snows in Cuba first, it’s sets the stage for us to get cold smoked later. My brother just left for Cuba very early this morning. It would be hilarious if he ended up seeing snow there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Really encouraging run today and it’d argue we flip the switch from shutout to trackable. Hopefully EPS continues the trend...we’ll know soon. Bob's inner Deb may be going away for awhile. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has snow in the deep south next Saturday(the 12th)(Miss,alabama,etc) It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 @poolz1 signs are growing regarding more impact in the long term from the ongoing SSWE little recovery and additional warming coming into view, not certain, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow... Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob. What is the mechanism that produces that split flow? By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Bob's inner Deb may be going away for awhile. So your saying he's swapping Debbie for a weenie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob. What is the mechanism that produces that split flow? By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around? I'm not Bob, but thats a reflection of NJ and STJ meeting in the midwest and one supplies cold...other supplies moisture. I'll let you figure out which :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob. What is the mechanism that produces that split flow? By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around? The upper level ridge building along the northern Rockies/west coast of Canada and the closed ULL off the coast of San Diego are spitting the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 @frd I saw that post by Simon Lee. Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?). Reversal all the way down.... Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward. Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern. It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @frd I saw that post by Simon Lee. Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?). Reversal all the way down.... Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward. Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern. It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo. I dont think the EPS will show much improvement today, because I am hearing after the 15 th it goes back to zonal, but Bob can address that. Not sure whether that statement is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 The 12z EPS continue to look abysmal. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: I dont think the EPS will show much improvement today, because I am hearing after the 15 th it goes back to zonal, but Bob can address that. Not sure whether that statement is accurate. It's certainly not much better through 318. Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: It's certainly not much better through 318. Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. Thanks, that what I thought, the battle rages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: It's certainly not much better through 318. Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down. Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS. The Euro OP blinked first...maybe EPS will be next (at 00z?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Thanks, that what I thought, the battle rages. Yea, EPS sucks. North American furnace d12+. Not even in the same galaxy as the GEFS/GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @frd I saw that post by Simon Lee. Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?). Reversal all the way down.... Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward. Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern. It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo. Yes, I believe overall the trends for downward propagation have improved. If so, still will take time to get into the models. Location specifics also hard to pin point , but some models long range seem to create the cold air source near Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 EPS with one of the worst runs of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 EPS has below normal heights sprawling around the entire Arctic Circle by d12. One ens is going to bust horribly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS with one of the worst runs of the year Easily. Just horrific with absolutely no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS has below normal heights sprawling around the entire Arctic Circle by d12. One ens is going to bust horribly. Eps is an outlier and it should be colder given the mjo and ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS with one of the worst runs of the year EPS has the best MJO forecast and the worst 500mb pattern. lol. What an awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: EPS has the best MJO forecast and the worst 500mb pattern. lol. What an awful run. although the Euro is way better than GFS...ive seen the GEFS beat the EPS quite a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down. Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS. The differences up top are pretty staggering between the two. Euro has a +NAO throughout the eps run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Looks the same as 0Z. Differences are negligible....So, it's tied for the worst run of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Ji said: although the Euro is way better than GFS...ive seen the GEFS beat the EPS quite a few times We're going to have to put all our faith in north american NWP because europe just cancelled Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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