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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That's what I was wondering. The look out west is ok. Why the ridge in the east?

 

I'll be honest I'm not sure. There is a weak trough coming into the SW in the stj but with a split flow and -epo and nao the ridge response to that should be flat and muted. Not some monster SE ridge. 

Maybe someone else has a better take because I'm a bit perplexed why the gefs keeps putting a ridge there with that longwage pattern everywhere else. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No it still flips the Pacific around day 10. Beautiful epo ridge. But it pops a huge SE ridge as a system comes into the SW. That's unusual for a split flow with blocking.  If we get that pattern and a ridge sticks in the east anyways I'm throwing my hands up and saying we're cursed and it's the Debs who are picky about snows fault. They angered the snow gods and now they smite us. 

Yep. Tough sledding this year for whatever reason. You would think we would have negative departures in regards to temps with the HL blocking. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is the typical step down progression as the TPV gets displaced towards Hudson. Should fight off the "easy" ridge in the east. I can envision the cold boundary carving its way south with a series of shortwaves/fronts. Probably not enough to avoid west tracks until later in Jan though.  I also think SNE will be hit one or more times before we get a chance at something. 

Yea fits climo. Like you have repeatedly reminded they often score before us. 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year.  So incredibly frustrating.

The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea fits climo. Like you have repeatedly reminded they often score before us. 

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

There could be a minority with monster ridges skewing the mean if the majority simply show normalish heights. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

I guess the GEFS look in the 10 to 16 isn't a shut out pattern?  Atleast not in January. I'm assuming in December it would of been.

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Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 
Call me at 9-14
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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

When I saw this panel.....it doesnt look as warm as the gefs are depicting.  Also,  not a bad pressure panel for prime climo.

qRmBpdG.png

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

I think this is how to interpret it. I also think even on the means the AN heights will disappear on future runs if the look up top is legit, and NA blocking persists.

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point.

Yea man, me too. This period we've been stuck in really sucks. You know winter is dead when ALL discussion is about d10-15. lol

GEFS/GEPS are both showing a workable pattern d10+. The EPS is clearly the worst height pattern but at least it's been shifting a little better each run. An advisory event would do wonders for our sub. Just need to pass time for another week or so and pray things shuffle like the GEFS is showing. 

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

FV3 looking a little chilly...

AytcpDo.png

We need to put a wager on that look. How about  a DD gift card :-)   I still say when the dust settles there

should be some drool worthy looks on various HL panels. ( I pray )  

  

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1 minute ago, frd said:

We need to put a wager on that look. How about  a DD gift card :-)   I still say when the dust settles there

should be some drool worthy looks on various HL panels. ( I pray )  

  

Looks like there a decent sized camp in the ens that displace the TPV similar to the Fv3. I like the mechanism on the Fv3 with the EPO ridge extending poleward along with the NAO ridge extending westward and creating a legit block. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

Agreed, but as I know by and large you agree,  I think we need to sign a waiver when looking beyond 240 for the rest of the year. 

Too much time/energy is "wasted" of late, as it really just mucks up the joint.  I love it as much as any, but i think one needs to take a look between 7-10 days at all things you deem holy with weather maps/guidance, and make your own assumptions/guesses accordingly (unless one thinks its "real good") then share away so we can troll the heck outta said person.

Just a playful thought....lol

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro d9 moving in the direction of where the GEFS/GEPS are going. I might let a little optimism back in if the EPS can make another move towards greener pastures. 

Seeing a combination of the Euro corecting for the MJO and the manifestation of the building Greenland block, along with the effects of the start event being seen or modeled correctly, the EPS should look better today and in the coming days.  

If we get the cold to continue to build in Central Canada near Hudson Bay,  and hopefully get some undercutting / split flow, it will be money time.  

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Euro bringing the cold into the northern plains too at the end of the run.  -20 2m temps into northern MN.        

Amazing how quick things can change when the pac jet gets deflected away from a direct shot into the west. Euro op was a very good run imo

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