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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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37 minutes ago, frd said:

I actually thought the GEFS looked like trash this AM on the 6z run. I am starting to get fed up here. Bob is converting me. 

I have no idea why the delay and although Canada gets very cold I see no method ( yet ) to deliver the cold, I almost say you see that more in a Nina. 

  

 

6z gefs pops a SE ridge for the opposite reason as the EPS or the last couple weeks. It retrogrades the epo ridge just a bit more then we want and the AO ridge is centered just a bit north of ideal and that combo allows a ridge to temporarily pop here. But trust me that's a temporary problem given the longwave pattern on the gfs, might not even be right, and is way preferable to the PAC problem we have now.

There is a -epo, -AO, -nao, split flow there. I'll roll with that and take my chances.  It won't look great at every moment. The ridge in western Canada pulls northwest a big as energy crashed into the west and a ridge can pop. We can get cutters. In the middle of the epic run in 78 there was a lakes cutter. There were a couple cutters during blocking in 2009/10. One around Xmas and one as the blocking pattern established again mid January.  But if that look stabilized for any length of time we would get opportunities trust me  

 Even if the gefs is right with the idea I'm pretty sure that's just a step towards something better. Cold is building to our north and will press and overwhelm the Conus if that look up top holds. 

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Until the Pac assaults stop its just more rain and more mud.

Really seems the fast Pac is messing everything up the pattern change, I see the MJO possilby slowing down going into the better phases on some models and other issues as well. 

For those who state wait a few days, well there is a lot reaching a peak, strat-wise, so lets see what the modeling shows in a few days. 

Winds have indeed reversed and it seems that stay that way a while. Maybe there is even a sensible weather effect. Some questioned whether the event would even happen, and it has. but as @donsutherland1  posted the SSWE is a wild card still. Have to see how things evolve. 

I do see some things on the modeling HM alluded to about a deep dive with the NAO. And Canada has plenty of snow cover,  so all is not lost and the model outcomes will no doubt change again. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

z gefs pops a SE ridge for the opposite reason as the EPS or the last couple weeks. It retrogrades the epo ridge just a bit more then we want and the AO ridge is centered just a bit north of ideal and that combo allows a ridge to temporarily pop here. But trust me that's a temporary problem given the longwave pattern on the gfs, might not even be right, and is say preferable to the PAC problem we have now. There is a -epo, -AO, -nao there. I'll roll with that and take my chances. Even if the gefs is right with the idea I'm pretty sure that's just a step towards something better. Cold is building to our north and will press and overwhelm the Conus if that look up top holds. 

Sounds resonable.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gefs pops a SE ridge for the opposite reason as the EPS or the last couple weeks. It retrogrades the epo ridge just a bit more then we want and the AO ridge is centered just a bit north of ideal and that combo allows a ridge to temporarily pop here. But trust me that's a temporary problem given the longwave pattern on the gfs, might not even be right, and is say preferable to the PAC problem we have now. There is a -epo, -AO, -nao there. I'll roll with that and take my chances. Even if the gefs is right with the idea I'm pretty sure that's just a step towards something better. Cold is building to our north and will press and overwhelm the Conus if that look up top holds. 

I’d take that.  And hey if we had a stronger SE ridge for the early December storm, it would have ended up north-er. ;) 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

Sounds resonable.

 

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d take that.  And hey if we had a stronger SE ridge for the early December storm, it would have ended up north-er. ;) 

I kind of doubt the strength of that SE ridge given the pattern look there. But if the epo ridge is too far NW as a trough is undercutting into the west it would allow a temporary ridge in the east. But that ridge would be muted depending on the strength of any blocking. It's a split flow so the ridge isn't going to be the kind of thing that evacuates the whole Conus of cold. We are more vulnerable to that kind of thing early in this pattern progression. We had to suffer through too much ridging early in the blocking pattern of January 16. We had a cutter and a perfect track rainstorm before it got cold and then...  Not saying this will lead to a HECS or that this pattern will only last 2 weeks and break down like 2016 just that we can temporarily ridge in that look but it won't last if the epo and ao remain negative. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

kind of doubt the strength of that SE ridge given the pattern look there. But if the epo ridge is too far NW as a trough is undercutting into the west it would allow a temporary ridge in the east. But that ridge would be muted depending on the strength of any blocking. It's a split flow so the ridge isn't going to be the kind of thing that evacuates the whole Conus of cold. We are more vulnerable to that kind of thing early in this pattern progression. We had to suffer through too much ridging early in the blocking pattern of January 16. We had a cutter and a perfect track rainstorm before it got cold and then...  Not saying this will lead to a HECS or that this pattern will only last 2 weeks and break down like 2016 just that we can temporarily ridge in that look but it won't last if the epo and ao remain negative. 

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

It seems the trend this winter is a slower and more amplified MJO than forecast and I have no reason to see that changing...which probably means a pattern flip timing that is a compromise between Euro and GFS is the safer call at this point.  

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It seems the trend this winter is a slower and more amplified MJO than forecast and I have no reason to see that changing...which probably means a pattern flip timing that is a compromise between Euro and GFS is the safer call at this point.  

In a non model and a non scientific point of view what you describle, and may indeed be the most likley outcome,  independent of the SSWE, is a simple progression to winter weather at the climate peak for snow in our area , at the end of Jan to end of Feb. 

If we are lucky we either get an extension good pattern of this into March, which fits some analogs,  that describle blocking as either re-appearing after a short reload or a deep winter period that keeps going into late March.   

If you go by background state, and persistance since 2010, then this March may indeed deliver again. I think that outcome also has a lot more riding on the SSWE and if we get it directed to our side with blocking. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gefs pops a SE ridge for the opposite reason as the EPS or the last couple weeks. It retrogrades the epo ridge just a bit more then we want and the AO ridge is centered just a bit north of ideal and that combo allows a ridge to temporarily pop here. But trust me that's a temporary problem given the longwave pattern on the gfs, might not even be right, and is way preferable to the PAC problem we have now.

There is a -epo, -AO, -nao, split flow there. I'll roll with that and take my chances.  It won't look great at every moment. The ridge in western Canada pulls northwest a big as energy crashed into the west and a ridge can pop. We can get cutters. In the middle of the epic run in 78 there was a lakes cutter. There were a couple cutters during blocking in 2009/10. One around Xmas and one as the blocking pattern established again mid January.  But if that look stabilized for any length of time we would get opportunities trust me  

 Even if the gefs is right with the idea I'm pretty sure that's just a step towards something better. Cold is building to our north and will press and overwhelm the Conus if that look up top holds. 

I have said it several times since November and will repeat my thought....the SE ridge is going to be our savior for a period later in the season. Whether that is late Jan or farther down the road tbd but once we get energy kicking out of the SW undercutting the split flow ridge out west and if there is a gradient setup ie battleground, that feature is going to cause either a storm to track closer rather than slide South and/or cause a very juicy overrunning environment. Time will tell but I like seeing that ridge pop here and there.....beats a progressive flow off the sE coast. I will gladly take a roller coaster ride of weather swing to have a chance to cash in on something really good. Gotta go big and take chances if u want a shot at the jackpot.

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34 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

Unless I am reading this incorrectly, this seems just fine to me. I understand an argument can be made that the eps based mjo are performing better but who knows if/how much longer that could continue. GFS/GEFS mirror the GGEM/GEPS and they are distancing themselves from the Euro/EPS somewhat. Guess we will find out soon enough which side is correct. I am feeling some freak changes for the good once we complete the current SSWE and we are already seeing some positive signs so I am cautiously optimistic and feeling good right now. We are essentially where we said we would want to be on Jan 2 a few weeks ago. No need to punt January or force a sack at this point.

 

ensplume_small.gif

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41 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

My issues with JB are well documented but in that regard his theory made sense and I and many others agreed to an extent.  The mjo is really just a measure of where convection is in the western Tropical Pac and Indian Ocean.  The reason the soi links is when the mjo are in phases 3-6 the pressures are likely lower around and west of Australia which would favor a positive soi. The reason a modoki nino is good is the warm waters in the central PAC favor the most convection and forcing to be in a good location to promote the epo ridge. An east based nino pushes that east and floods the Conus with warmth. The mjo in phases 3-6 pulls it too far west and also floods the Conus with PAC puke. There is a reason this soi spike was a record for a nino base oni. And this mjo was a record for time in phase 5 and near a record amplitude for a Nino. And no shock we had a record soi spike for a nino oni with it.  None of that would be expected given the SST. 

The question then is why?  There is a correlation with a sswe and we had a record sswe December event so perhaps....and some way more knowledgeable think that was the case. If that's the case we should be good to go soon. But what if it's Tips (jb stole it) idea that the warmth all over and lack of gradients is muting the nino and thus a lingering Nina atmospheric base state will persist...and in that case we are cooked. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My issues with JB are well documented but in that regard his theory made sense and I and many others agreed to an extent.  The mjo is really just a measure of where convection is in the western Tropical Pac and Indian Ocean.  The reason the soi links is when the mjo are in phases 3-6 the pressures are likely lower around and west of Australia which would favor a positive soi. The reason a modoki nino is good is the warm waters in the central PAC favor the most convection and forcing to be in a good location to promote the epo ridge. An east based nino pushes that east and floods the Conus with warmth. The mjo in phases 3-6 pulls it too far west and also floods the Conus with PAC puke. There is a reason this soi spike was a record for a nino base oni. And this mjo was a record for time in phase 5 and near a record amplitude for a Nino. And no shock we had a record soi spike for a nino oni with it.  None of that would be expected given the SST. 

The question then is why?  There is a correlation with a sswe and we had a record sswe December event so perhaps....and some way more knowledgeable think that was the case. If that's the case we should be good to go soon. But what if it's Tips (jb stole it) idea that the warmth all over and lack of gradients is muting the nino and thus a lingering Nina atmospheric base state will persist...and in that case we are cooked. 

Seriously, I missed that, LOL.  So he reads these boards I guess.

In a way thats an interesting take by Tip. I brought it over here because I thought is was unique, however, I do not think thats the complete reason to what is transpiring. 

I would love to see the Euro's MJO evolution stall in a good phase, and at a decent amp, but not super high, and then see what the EPS goes to.    

Certainly it could become a  Katie bar the door scenario, ( hey a Herb Clarke reference ala 1980 ) because the players are around, have to see final outcome and way to early to tell that.  

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Yeah what you are saying could evolve. Have you seen the various MJO forecast this AM. I guess for me the takeaway was the number of days in phase 5 of the MJO and how long it is taking to move forward. 

Seems the trend last 48 hours is to slow the progression to 7 and 8 even more. Basically longer than forecasted. And all I can think of is your buddy, JB, LOL and his call for the opposite this season, in which  the MJO would cycle in the cold phases way more than the warm. 

 

not really seeing that...per the euro its in phase 6 for a short amount of time and then spends some quality time in Phase 8 with decent amplitude. ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Blocking much...

IMG_8183.thumb.PNG.89274fb34be9cf68fd454f176c7321e8.PNG

i think we have the possibility to see some crazy things still this winter. 2006-07 had a flip exactly on Jan 15 after a terrible 1st half......There is plenty of time to get a big snowstorm Jan 20-31 and then another one in February with a few events in between. 30-40 is still doable imo but we need to flip fast. All we need is some cold air....the wet pattern has been persistant

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

Seriously, I missed that, LOL.  So he reads these boards I guess.

In a way thats an interesting take by Tip. I brought it over here because I thought is was unique, however, I do not think thats the complete reason to what is transpiring. 

I would love to see the Euro's MJO evolution stall in a good phase, and at a decent amp, but not super high, and then see what the EPS goes to.    

Certainly it could become a  Katie bar the door scenario, ( hey a Herb Clarke reference ala 1980 ) because the players are around, have to see final outcome and way to early to tell that.  

 

 

 

Oh yea he reads. Way too often something is on here and then magically appears on his blog or video soon after.  Kinda like someone else and Fox News...  Sometimes even things we have been talking about in this thread. 

As for Tips theory...I think it is part of it but not the whole enchilada. I'm punching above my weight here with Tip but while the gradients would amplify the effect and so not having them would mute the signal some...allowing a strong mjo to impact more...warmer waters in the central PAC should still add heat from that location which would favor the response. So it might be part of the problem but I doubt it's the whole and it's unlikely why the mjo wave was so amplified but it contributed perhaps to muting the nino base state some. 

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15 minutes ago, frd said:

Ok to me HM is saying winter is coming, and I don't care what anyone else says :-) 

We all know his messages need to be read inbetween the lines. 

 

 

 

 

Sometimes I feel like I need that little orphan Annie decoder from A Christmas Story to read his posts...but over the years in my quest to research and decode his posts I have learned a ton about things I didn't even know I didn't know.  

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think we have the possibility to see some crazy things still this winter. 2006-07 had a flip exactly on Jan 15 after a terrible 1st half......There is plenty of time to get a big snowstorm Jan 20-31 and then another one in February with a few events in between. 30-40 is still doable imo but we need to flip fast. All we need is some cold air....the wet pattern has been persistant

Not just wet we have had several damn perfect h5 low passes but there was no cold to work with.  Even in the crap pattern the storm track has been fine. 

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3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Tomorrow at 0z is when I start paying attention truly. If there aren't opportunities showing up at the end of those runs then I say uh oh

It's close to a lock that we'll get digital snow next 24 hours. The real question is whether you believe it or not...

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