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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2019


andyhb
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Number of Tornadoes  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of Tornadoes

    • Less than 900
    • 900-1000
    • 1000-1100
    • 1100-1200
    • 1200-1300
    • 1300-1400
    • 1400-1500
      0
    • Greater than 1500

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  • Poll closed on 03/15/2019 at 05:00 AM

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Not terribly surprising but drought removal through May is expected through all of the Plains and much of the EML source region. I’m not sure if this will translate to a fun spring but I’d say buckle up, we could be in for a fun season. 

 

When was the last season where we were relatively drought free heading *into* the season? 2010? 2016?

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well, yesterday certainly broke the lack of violent tornadoes and few fatalities, unfortunately. We'll see if that translates into a better year for chasers or just more destruction and misery.

Looks like NWS Birmingham confirmed EF4 damage per their twitter

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1102644881024053249

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  • 2 weeks later...

March 1-16, 2019: 92 confirmed tornadoes (source, Wikipedia)

March 2018: 55 confirmed tornadoes.

We may be on pace to get over 120 confirmed tornadoes this month, as opposed to 55 in March last year. According to my calculations, the 2010-2018 average (not including hyper-active 2011) is 80.2 tornadoes.

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  • 2 months later...

I assume May 20 is the first high risk? 

If so, congrats to rolltide_130 who said May 24, and OKstorm with May 4. Third closest was freshgeek at April 30th.

All other guesses were mostly in April, one was for late March and a few said no high risk. 

Minnesota_storms had April 26th but added EF5 for May 23rd (remains to be seen later today?). 

My remaining chance at success in this thread rests on the above consensus seasonal total (which was not quite the highest one offered). I don't know how that's going. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looking at my first post this thread, I was one cynical MF last winter. Ironic we actually chased on that high risk day. It was a mess though. Our best day was two days later, documenting a couple northeast OK tornadoes in somewhat less awful terrain.

By late winter I had turned more optimistic. The west trough would not quit. It was there in December and back with a vengeance in Feb. Kept going for Dixie in March. Even as late April calmed down one would not be surprised if the west trough returned in May. Oh I'd say it returned - right at peak climo!

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  • 6 months later...

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