January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Holston_River_Rambler]

UKMET initially looked north going by the precip map,  but the low seems to be taking an odd ball, almost clipper-like, NW to ESE across the south, before tryin to turn the corner off the coast:

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

UKMET initially looked north going by the precip map,  but the low seems to be taking an odd ball, almost clipper-like, NW to ESE across the south, before tryin to turn the corner off the coast:

 

 

 

Fairly disorganized look right now.  That could change as the details get worked out.  Selfishly, is there any way to slow down the gif speed on future postings(I like gifs, though!)?  I am just trying to see MBY, especially the precip math.  LOL.  Like I said, nice share!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Selfishly, is there any way to slow down the gif speed on future postings(I like gifs, though!)

I can try to play around on weathermodels to see. That seems to be their default speed though. I could try to make them by hand.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

L cuts a caret/circumflex route

What does that mean? 

But just looking at it I would favor eastern areas. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I can try to play around on weathermodels to see. That seems to be their default speed though. I could try to make them by hand.

Nah...don't make them by hand.  That would take forever.  Really enjoy those graphics, though.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No worries, Flash, just wasn't sure if that was a specialized meteorological term.

What I'm selfishly hoping we are trending to is a quick drop south to Louisiana with the MSLP and then the EPS/ UKMET later development (as on now OTS favoring NC) that NW trends last minute. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro Op.

Figured out how to slow it down.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Well...I know when were aren't talking SOI(barely positive today), MJO, and d10-15 500 patterns...that the weather pattern has to be improving some!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Finally had a chance to look at the Fv3 on the NCEP site. Looks Euroish, but favors a TRI area front end thump a little more than the Euro. 

Actually gives nearly 6 hours of snow before a transition to FZR

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS snow mean is a bit more beefy for areas north of I-40 for much of the state.  It is a consequence of a stronger operational run.  Great look for northern 1/3 of Arkansas, Southwest VA and much of KY as well.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Really hope the EPS is starting to get things together post day 10. Still looks great!

[ShawnEastTN]

The 12z EPS snow mean is a bit more beefy for areas north of I-40 for much of the state.  It is a consequence of a stronger operational run.  Great look for northern 1/3 of Arkansas, Southwest VA and much of KY as well.

850s look a bit better on 12z EPS at least at onset. Hopefully a trend.

 

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[John1122]

Pretty close to the Friday night system and it's looking better and better for especially western areas to see several inches of snow as I'm currently putting a lot more faith in the Euro than the other suites right now. It's been pretty consistent with 2-3 inches for Nashville and more west and north of Nashville.

Not sure how much to trust the FV3 at all, hopefully it runs at 18 since it skipped 12, but the 06 was a 3-4 inch front end thump for my area on the more reasonable snow maps. GFS data issues are more concerning to me than they normally would be, though it's showing the best solution for mby, I tend more to side with the Euro still.

Probably not a bad idea to start a thread if tonight's runs stay consistent, so this one can stay more focused on the medium to longer term. 

[John1122]

The EPS is more bullish than the OP. That's an impressive mean.

[Carvers Gap]

Just a quick LR note...the ensembles continue to advertise a pretty cold pattern after this weekend.  There is a warmup of 3-4 days after the storm and then cold.  The 500 patterns are remarkably similar.  Seems like the Weeklies pattern is finally getting reeled in.    The 18z GEFS is the coldest of the bunch. The EPS takes longer to load the cold, but it does happen.  Looks like a base cold pattern that might setup after Jan 20.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Fv3 from the NCEP site

Precip type

 

3 hr accum. precip. + MSLP

 

 

[John1122]

That should once again be a big hitter by the FV3. It seems good with placement of features but not sure how good it will be with mesoscale details. Hopefully very good but it struggled with them in December. Was amazing at the 500mb and 850mb features though.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro looks north to me in terms of the MSLP, but stouter in regards to the HP:

 

 

precip shield

 

Only goes to 90 hours so hard to tell how things might pan out 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Certainly trying to phase a bunch of energy together, but the problem with this becoming something even bigger seems to be an anticyclonic wavebreak way up in the atmosphere (don't ask me why that matters, not quite sure, just copying Masiello from a couple of days ago).

 

Using the GFS since that's the only access I have to 2PVU, but see how our shortwave(s) get caught by the orange mess from the south while being squished by the anticyclone rolling overhead through Alberta and Manitoba, then falling down into the Dakotas. 

I don't look at that type of map too much, but when I have and there's a storm, I can't remember seeing anything like the above in terms of the orange colors. 

FWIW There is also a massive cyclone in the N. Pac that Masiello thinks will still have some bearing on how all this unfolds.

Actually he just tweeted about this process again:

According to R. Maue that N. Pac cyclone is forecast by the GFS to deepen from 999mb to 936mb in 24 hours. If big storms can have big implications downstream.....that'd do it. 

Long story short, I suspect we haven't seen the end yet. 

 

 

 

[BillT]

by far the coldest and largest mass of cold air is in canada and drifting south

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS continue show a much colder solution for d10-15.  They are also quicker w the pattern change.  Maybe it is data.  Maybe it is not.  The EPS flat busted on the trough amplification this week while the other two found it earlier IMHO, and it looks too slow and washed out in its d10-15.  After a nice run at 12z yesterday which mirrored the aforementioned ensembles, it is back to its usual slow progression.  Who knows?  It might be right.  Won't be the first time.  With missing data in the American suite and the Euro missing trough amplifications(among other things) in the LR, I thing the d10-15 time frame is now tougher to forecast than normal.  I say this often...when models  begin to depict wild swings during winter, it often means very cold air is entering North America.  I do think we moderate as one more ridge rolls through after the cold.   Then I think we enter a progressively base cold state after that.  Not much to add....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overnight trends not so good for the 13 -15 storm. Euro went from most suppressed with track to as far north as the long range NAM. As far as I can tell it has something to do with the cut off ridge out west and how it is aligned and how that moves the energy producing the storm. FWIW GFS is now most suppressed. 

Straight up Miller B with primary running into TN and transferring to the Carolina coast. Still holding out for TRI and other areas for a front end thump of some kind. Happy for the MA folks though. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ah...and I forgot to mention what I originally meant to mention.  While the EPS and GEFS differ, their snow means for their entire run are fairly strong.  Seems like there is another bump in the means between d10-15 as well.  They seem to have that in common despite some fairly big differences in 500 timing and strength of cold at LR.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Maybe it is data.  Maybe it is not

Yeah, even with that article, the American models haven't been that different from how they normally are. In fact, if I hadn't seen it, I never would have thought something was terribly wrong. I wonder if it is even that big of a deal for things like ensembles? 

Maybe if I was trying to use the GFS to forecast a particular system in India it would matter more? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro crept back south a bit. Not gonna say much more than that since it was not much of a jump and the run only goes out so far, so hard to tell how it ends up.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z UKMET looks not necessarily south, but weaker than its 0z run. Hopefully better for NE sections. Starting to look across models like a lot will depend on where the initial plume of moisture sets up, how fast it moves, how heavy it is, where it moves. 

 

 

No clue why the second one is faster. I had them set on the same speed. 

Also interesting to note how the precip. lingers across eastern section w/ possible secondary energy. 

[Bango]

12z gfs is oh so close a nice track for tn i40 north, swva.  100 more miles south pleasee

[Carvers Gap]

Dear 12z EPS,

         Regarding the d10-15 pattern progression, that is how it is done.  Thank you.

Sincerely,

Carvers Gap

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Really like the PNA ridge:

 

[Carvers Gap]

TRI stands at an incredible +13.6 departure after yesterday through the first nine days of January.  Going to be fun watching the next three weeks potentially reel that number back.  Not posting this to prove anyone right or wrong...just thought it was an impressive departure.  Here is some more interesting number tinkering.  Last January through the first nine days it looks like we were roughly -13.6.   Talk about nature balancing things out to near perfection!  We are 27 degrees warmer than we were during the first nine days of January 2018.  I find that remarkable.   January 2018 finished at -3.4(It was a month full of wild, wild temp swings) .  February 2018 would finish at +10.4 . (Insert strat split here.) March would finish at -1.4.  April would finish at -2.9.  May would finish at +6.2.  We had about two months of strong blocking, and then flipped to summer.  As Jeff noted, the potential blocking should be roughly a month earlier this year.   So, are we going to see last winter in reverse?  I think this is quite possible.  I did note that the 500 pattern on the EPS looked really, really good.  Underneath...AN temps over this area?!  That model has perplexed me all winter...with that tough configuration, the motherload should be turned loose.  It may well be that it just didn't have time to send everything south.  Anyway, just some pretty interesting observations.  And again, not taking shots at anyone's forecasts.  If anything, we can bump this post at the end of the month and see how much it changes..February will be interesting as well to see if we can pull the seasonal average back to average or below.  Hopefully, the differences will be stark....see the nice GoT inference there.  Their house motto?...Winter is coming!  One can only hope!!!