January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[John1122]

The Euro dries out, so the GFS gives two systems and 16 inches to me. I'm sure it'll change by 12z.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Amazing 500mb trough on the EPS. Not necessarily good for us, but the depth of the trough is something to see:

 

 

[weathertree4u]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Amazing 500mb trough on the EPS. Not necessarily good for us, but the depth of the trough is something to see:

 

 

Couldn't Florida get GOM effect snow in that pattern? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think you'd have to get the trough over the Dominican Republic. That one above orients the flow out of the W and SW. 

Hour 186 on the 0z Euro gives a Wintery Mix to Gainesville, FL though

[weathertree4u]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think you'd have to get the trough over the Dominican Republic. That one above orients the flow out of the W and SW. 

Hour 186 on the 0z Euro gives a Wintery Mix to Gainesville, FL though

TN bound be negative temperatures with that

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

TN bound be negative temperatures with that

Close

 

[weathertree4u]

21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think you'd have to get the trough over the Dominican Republic. That one above orients the flow out of the W and SW. 

Hour 186 on the 0z Euro gives a Wintery Mix to Gainesville, FL 

I am sure noon model suites will clear all ambiguity 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

I am sure noon model suites will clear all ambiguity 

Almost guaranteed. 

But hey, we got something inside 7 days now, sort of (6z GFS and 0z Euro Kuchera snowfall through Jan 31):

 

In all seriousness, this event has some legs (admittedly maybe those of a drunk grand daddy long legs). Results matter and remain to be seen, but it has been pretty consistently modeled for a while now. 

 

[weathertree4u]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Almost guaranteed. 

But hey, we got something inside 7 days now, sort of (6z GFS and 0z Euro Kuchera snowfall through Jan 31):

 

In all seriousness, this event has some legs (admittedly maybe those of a drunk grand daddy long legs). Results matter and remain to be seen, but it has been pretty consistently modeled for a while now. 

 

Book it

[John1122]

The 0z UKIE is also a decent system for our forum area, except for the strange snowfree streak along the Southern/Central Plateau and far western areas. Pretty much only the Euro looked bad for the area overnight.

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, HSVWx said:

Just a quick question to enhance my winter forecasting skills;
Which model ratio is more accurate/better? The standard 10:1 or the Kuchera Ratio?

Thank You

Tim

Whichever gives us the most is the one I prefer.  LOL.  Just kidding...well, sort of.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, weathertree4u said:

Couldn't Florida get GOM effect snow in that pattern? 

I think that there are times when FL gets  very light ocean effect stuff(obviously very rare).  Seems like I remember Tampa at one point getting some very light bands coming off the Gulf.  More fun to watch on radar than anything appreciable.

[HSVWx]

Question: IS the upcoming pattern change next week now displayed via most Ensembles with such dramatic daily low morning temps, is this a  "cross-polar"/ PV event?

Thank you

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, HSVWx said:

Question: IS the upcoming pattern change next week now displayed via most Ensembles with such dramatic daily low morning temps, is this a  "cross-polar"/ PV event?

Thank you

You know, I think the cold likely resulted in part from one of those parent vortices from the strat split earlier this month.  I haven't looked closely.  It may very well be from across the pole in some part as that is likely how Canada reloaded.  The reason it gets really cold is the snowpack to our north and some models even have light amounts over us.  This is a very cold air mass coming

[Carvers Gap]

Going to keep my Jan29-30 comments in this thread since it is still January, and place my medium to LR comments in the Feb thread or until we are tracking an event in February...

Still looks like a nice Arctic front event around Tuesday next week.  Those can be fickle beasts.  Sometimes they are under modeled and sometimes the sputter.  Just think about rainy fronts during spring and summer.  Many times the amount of precip is not modeled well.  The Plateau is doing well with amounts as it gets just enough lift to squeeze out some moisture.  Old school front there as someone mentioned.  I do like our chances after that for some high ratio stuff in NE TN.  I will add those comments in the February thread.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

UKMET looks hopeful for your part of the state, @jaxjagman maybe the Euro will follow:

 

only 5 days to go now, we've broken the 7 day barrier on something besides the Fv3 and GFS! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the progression and the UK's snow map: 

 

 

Not sure how accurate the snow algorithm is on this site though. 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

I don't know what has been done to some models lately or what data is being ingested but, they have been forecasting temps too warm for Lee County and underforecasting precip. Snowfall projections are wrong as well, generally too low. Even the once decent (Euro model) for the area is doing it now, as well.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@weathertree4u

"Ratios are higher with arctic front aren't they?"

If you can get the air cold enough they would be. The site I use for the UK doensn't use Kuchera ratios though. 

[AMZ8990]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's the progression and the UK's snow map: 

 

 

Not sure how accurate the snow algorithm is on this site though. 

 

 

  Seeing this on The UK is a great sign in my opinion.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

I don't know what has been done to some models lately or what data is being ingested but, they have been forecasting temps too warm for Lee County and underforecasting precip. Snowfall projections are wrong as well, generally too low. Even the once decent (Euro model) for the area is doing it now, as well.

Makes you wonder if maybe they are working from an updated topo map.  Wonder if they have the elevation incorrect, or the borders drawn incorrectly by a hair.  

[AMZ8990]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

UKMET looks hopeful for your part of the state, @jaxjagman maybe the Euro will follow:

 

only 5 days to go now, we've broken the 7 day barrier on something besides the Fv3 and GFS! 

Progress,  I like it!!

[Runman292]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's the progression and the UK's snow map: 

 

 

Not sure how accurate the snow algorithm is on this site though. 

 

 

I'm cashing in my money in the bank on that run, lol. In all seriousness, that is a good sign.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, AMZ8990 said:

Progress,  I like it!!

I remember an Arctic front that caught us getting out of school in during the late 70s in Cedar Bluff in Knoxville.  What a mess!

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Makes you wonder if maybe they are working from an updated topo map.  Wonder if they have the elevation incorrect, or the borders drawn incorrectly by a hair.  

Exactly my thoughts. Apparently not very precise or as you said about the borders.

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I remember an Arctic front that caught us getting out of school in during the late 70s in Cedar Bluff in Knoxville.  What a mess!

  Fingers crossed for the redux then.  I bet it was a mess too, probably had roads jacked up for a while right??  How long did that article front last CG?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly my thoughts. Apparently not very precise or as you said about the borders.

I've noticed that sometimes the Euro shifts the mts precip to far west into the valley sometimes and the valley's warm nose too far west too. Will see if I can catch it doing it this run. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly my thoughts. Apparently not very precise or as you said about the borders.

That area is fairly complex as well.  It is possible that the elevations have been smoothed a bit much as well.  Just guessing.  I know in this area, that happens.  We will see 12" of snow on Roan Mountain and 2-3" of snow here...what that really means is no snow in the valley.  I do think models have higher definition than they used to...but I bet the elevations over there are getting smoothed out or they have the map wrong.  Let us know if you find out anything.  Interesting.  It might apply here as well.

[nrgjeff]

I'm pretty confident the cold hammer drops next week. Models debate which days. However they are not punting. Big supply of cold air will be delivered to the Midwest and East. Some of it is coming south. Could be a lot of it.

Broadly, the arctic outbreak is gradually progressing forward in the models. Adds confidence. MJO convection looks friendly to cold bulls, though much of the action is south of the equator. Philippines cold fronts, lol! 

So far I can't see snow in CHA. Post frontal and/or low north does not work here. However if current trend hold, I'd expect snow on the Plateau into the Mountains. Probably TRI. Maybe more parts of I-40, but I like Plateau and I-81 better.

PS. This might not flow well with the current page. I jumped at the end of page 28., See Carver's post there.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, AMZ8990 said:

  Fingers crossed for the redux then.  I bet it was a mess too, probably had roads jacked up for a while right??  How long did that article front last CG?

It was over and gone in about an hour, maybe less.  Dropped like 2-3" of snow during dismissal.  I was a car rider.