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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion


John1122
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Funny you should mention that.

The 18z Euro looked like it might be trying to dig a little more out west and orient the trough in such a way as to draw more moisture north, but only goes out to 90 hours, so hard to say for sure. Otherwise the energy for the midweek storm looked very similar in placement and strength to 12z. 

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Funny you should mention that.

The 18z Euro looked like it might be trying to dig a little more out west and orient the trough in such a way as to draw more moisture north, but only goes out to 90 hours, so hard to say for sure. Otherwise the energy for the midweek storm looked very similar in placement and strength to 12z. 

I think they run the EPS to 144 at 6z and 18z.  Wonder if anyone has seen it?

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Funny you should mention that.
The 18z Euro looked like it might be trying to dig a little more out west and orient the trough in such a way as to draw more moisture north, but only goes out to 90 hours, so hard to say for sure. Otherwise the energy for the midweek storm looked very similar in placement and strength to 12z. 
I was just studying the 12z/96h vs 18z/90h 500mb vort to look for differences that might show if the Euro us holding serve with the 12z solution. Here are the pics: 7b37d2bc8f8d4b55465767aed23a530a.jpg5df4ff4a397288c700be047f3513e8c0.jpg

Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk

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Maybe someone can correct me here, but I think we would do better if the front raced through and had a more SW-NE orientation? More of an overrunning rather than an anafront?

Was kind of interested in the 18z Fv3 for that reason. Plow the front through with the lead energy/ Leave some energy behind and let it ride the front. Ok that is wishcasting, but after how the tropics have treated us, I think we get to make some wishes. 

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13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Maybe someone can correct me here, but I think we would do better if the front raced through and had a more SW-NE orientation? More of an overrunning rather than an anafront?

Was kind of interested in the 18z Fv3 for that reason. Plow the front through with the lead energy/ Leave some energy behind and let it ride the front. Ok that is wishcasting, but after how the tropics have treated us, I think we get to make some wishes. 

I have always liked the NE to SW orientation.  I think the moisture transport is generally better, but admittedly I might just be making that up.

 

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Don't worry about the far NE areas, it's still snowing as of that panel. It fills up towards 5 inches and the rest East Tn along and north of 40 is in the purple 6+ inch range as is SWVA with some isolated double digit totals in the mountains and higher peaks.

As of now every model except the FV3 is on board for a big winter storm. The FV3 was much drier across the area. That said, the FV3 has been missing badly at this range lately. We just saw how badly it missed the system that came through last night 4-5 days out. 

The Euro/UKIE/Canadian/GFS are pretty much all on board as we stand now, 3.5-4 days away from this being felt in our far western areas. A few years ago I'd have taken that combo to the bank at this range, but this year it's just been a rough one for the models at anything beyond day 3.

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26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Don't worry about the far NE areas, it's still snowing as of that panel. It fills up towards 5 inches and the rest East Tn along and north of 40 is in the purple 6+ inch range as is SWVA with some isolated double digit totals in the mountains and higher peaks.

As of now every model except the FV3 is on board for a big winter storm. The FV3 was much drier across the area. That said, the FV3 has been missing badly at this range lately. We just saw how badly it missed the system that came through last night 4-5 days out. 

The Euro/UKIE/Canadian/GFS are pretty much all on board as we stand now, 3.5-4 days away from this being felt in our far western areas. A few years ago I'd have taken that combo to the bank at this range, but this year it's just been a rough one for the models at anything beyond day 3.

What do the temps looks like behind it?

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8 minutes ago, Bango said:

What do the temps looks like behind it?

Single digits and below 0 in the East the folllowing morning. After that lows in the 10s, highs in the 20s/30s. Then very cold super bowl weekend. Some -10s in Eastern areas. Super Bowl morning Memphis is the only part in the state above 8 degrees. Highs in the 10s and 20s Super Bowl Sunday.

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Don't worry about the far NE areas, it's still snowing as of that panel. It fills up towards 5 inches and the rest East Tn along and north of 40 is in the purple 6+ inch range as is SWVA with some isolated double digit totals in the mountains and higher peaks.

As of now every model except the FV3 is on board for a big winter storm. The FV3 was much drier across the area. That said, the FV3 has been missing badly at this range lately. We just saw how badly it missed the system that came through last night 4-5 days out. 

The Euro/UKIE/Canadian/GFS are pretty much all on board as we stand now, 3.5-4 days away from this being felt in our far western areas. A few years ago I'd have taken that combo to the bank at this range, but this year it's just been a rough one for the models at anything beyond day 3.

MRX is starting to jump on board. Here's their latest AFD:

"The main weather feature of interest will be a stronger short-wave moving southeast from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/lower Ohio Valley late Monday through Tuesday. The northern stream wave will phase with a southern stream jet over the lower Mississippi River Valley pulling moisture northeastward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. A strong arctic front will sweep through the region sometime Tuesday. The GFS is the fast and pulls the front into the area by 12Z, while the ECMWF is slower and more toward 18Z. Either way the precipitation will likely begin as rain (rain/snow higher terrain), but quickly transition to snow. Strong jet dynamics with this short-wave with deep lift for about 6 hours. Snow accumulations are looking more likely with this system, even across the Tennessee Valley. Since this system is several days away, snowfall forecast will likely change, but currently 2 to 4 inches is possible most locations with higher amounts across the higher terrain. Additional light snowfall is possible Tuesday night. "

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5 minutes ago, Reb said:

 

 

Strange map given the set up, that it doesn't include further west areas. 

The GFS is much much much warmer than the Euro for SB weekend.  On Saturday at 12/1pm the GFS has my area at 46 degrees. The Euro has me at 13.

Northern Georgia is 53 on the GFS, 22 on the Euro. 

Even more stark the next day, Sunday morning I'm at 35 on the GFS, -6 on the Euro.

Sunday at 12/1pm my area is at 55 on the GFS, 15 on the Euro.

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Just now, TellicoWx said:

Only possible fly in the ointment for early week is how quickly can the front get off the plateau...mid tn looks to be in a great spot.

There will always be different areas of heavier snow from run to run, the front looks to plow through the entire state like a living defender going against Tennessee's offensive line last year. I'd say smooth everything into a 2-4 inch window and expect there to be some higher areas, if this thing doesn't go poof. The GFS didn't have much pre-frontal rain that run and the Euro had even less.

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