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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion


John1122
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Mid section has had a great Winter and looks to continue, even if we do get in on it.

 

On 1/16/2019 at 8:33 AM, nrgjeff said:

ECWMF does seem to want to dig the weekend system a little longer, which would put West Tenn and of course Kentucky in play for snow. Couple storms this year the ECWMF beat the NAM in short range (30-36 hr) in the Midwest. Will it translate South?

MJO wants influence later next week, but I tend to believe the strong blocking signals will outweigh. Looks like a mild interlude between arctic systems is likely. It might be 1-2 days. A West first arctic dump might give us 3-4 mild days. Still from the upper latitudes pattern I infer it comes east. Pretty safe call really. Still looks like a true arctic outbreak Jan 26-30.

Very end of the EPS has it easing up slightly, but one expects some ebb and flow. I expect more cold in 

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It some how manages to snow fairly heavily all around the South except for the Southern Eastern Valley/NE Georgia area. At the 240 mark another southern system is effecting the whole forum with snow and it's pointed at those areas.

snku_acc.us_ov.png&key=7203b65479bfc55bc47009238d2db15d788e14ec0983a70463094604cbf23d93

It seems like here in Chattanooga we miss out on snow a lot when the board gets snow. I realize this is just a model but it seems pretty accurate for past storms. On a side note, when the forecast busts in our favor we end up overproducing by a big amount. Hopefully if this storm develops we can all get a nice dumping.

 

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, 1234snow said:

The NAM is not onboard with the midweek system. I’m afraid the FV3 is on a lonely island.

I don't know, we still have the Euro and the NAM looks kinda similar at 500mb with the energy. 

Euro:

giphy.gif 

NAM

giphy.gif

The Euro gives some in the forum a chance:

giphy.gif 

The way things have been trending, would not be surprised at all though if the trailing wave really amps up and gets w. TN and KY more than eastern areas. 

 

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At this time it looks like the next two weeks have the potential to be very active in terms of storms tracking through the Tennessee valley.  Eventually cold air is going to be in place for someone across the forum (maybe all) as these storms track through our area.  I believe Carver said it earlier but I will echo it.  Someone is likely going to see some of the White stuff we all dream about during these last weeks of January.  Last year we had storms that came within 3-4 days of one another when we had our artic blast.  It would be pretty cool if that same scenario happens this year, and it looks likely given how the models seem to be an agreement about multiple pieces of energy passing through our are over the next 10 days.  Fingers crossed that we can get a statewide event out of them.  Overall though, it will be exciting to possibly have systems to actually track in the short term instead of having to look out past 10 days.   Everyone get your lucky mojo out so we can reel in a big dawg snow soon!!

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know, we still have the Euro and the NAM looks kinda similar at 500mb with the energy. 

Euro:

giphy.gif 

NAM

giphy.gif

The Euro gives some in the forum a chance:

giphy.gif 

The way things have been trending, would not be surprised at all though if the trailing wave really amps up and gets w. TN and KY more than eastern areas. 

 

Seems like the euro is a little faster bringing the precip in versus the FV3 being slower and having the precip arriving at a more favorable time for snow (overnight timeframe).  I wouldn’t worry much about the Nam at 84hrs but that’s just me.  I hope the FV3 is right though, lol.  Either way I agree though that it will be an interesting system to watch pan out.  

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6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Fair enough, but if the Euro an NAM are in agreement...

Given how this is likely to trend last minute, you may be sitting pretty @AMZ8990

  I hope so man!!!  They sure have a similar look on those maps you posted so maybe there on to something.  That would be an awesome midweek surprise.  I just wonder how long it’s gonna take for that cold air to filter in is my biggest question.  It seems like the highs on Wednesday have continually been dropped down each run so maybe that’s a good sign.  A few days back it was looking like 58-60 for a high and Now the high is modeled at 51 I believe.  How soon can that cold front take hold is gonna be huge.

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5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Well, you got nothing between you and the arctic except the Plains (unlike we eastern valley folk who have the plateau), so hopefully it comes screaming in! 

Meanwhile Euro looks fun at 500mb next weekend. Let's see where that goes. 

Great point, that’s one of the few bonuses I get on my side of the state! :)  

 

I agree about next weekend, looks very promising at this time.  

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Stole this from MA forum: Individual GEFS members for next weekend storm:
giphy.gif&key=a4140ee0e4e1e7ae10a52e85bfe423e7ba83352c82f579aa34b43dbe1c8a03d4 
Seriously though, how many look have we had this winter that were nice hits at 7 days, only to trend to rain? Maybe wrong here, but I like being on the NW fringe at 7 days. 
Still a ways to go though. 


Last year seemed like the most fantasy 7-10 day storms in one season I’ve ever seen. This year says hold my beer.


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Definite ice threat on the Euro long range,probably take it with a grain of salt at this range tho

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN20
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  -3.4   -10.3     126       0    34010           0.00            
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -2.3    -9.7     126       0    34009           0.00            
MON 00Z 21-JAN  -3.7   -10.9     126       0    34007           0.00            
MON 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6   -11.5     125       0    04006           0.01            
MON 12Z 21-JAN  -7.6    -8.2     125       0    05005           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -1.3    -4.6     127       0    07005           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -1.9    -0.5     129    1953    08005           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.0     3.3     130    7349    14006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -0.7     2.7     130    8513    17009           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-JAN   7.2     2.0     131   10458    17012           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-JAN   7.7     4.9     133   10593    16013           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-JAN   8.9     6.7     134    9252    17015           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-JAN  10.0     7.8     134    9162    18016           0.12            
WED 18Z 23-JAN   8.4     5.0     134    8325    31007           0.47            
THU 00Z 24-JAN   1.9     2.2     131    7679    33007           0.65            
THU 06Z 24-JAN  -2.1    -4.3     127       0    32007           0.15            
THU 12Z 24-JAN  -4.7    -6.2     126       0    30006           0.00            
THU 18Z 24-JAN   1.2    -6.3     128      91    28006           0.00            
FRI 00Z 25-JAN   0.4    -7.4     129    1197    27006           0.00            
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -2.3    -9.9     126       0    31010           0.00            
FRI 12Z 25-JAN -10.3   -11.6     124       0    32007           0.00            
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -3.3    -6.3     126       0    24001           0.00            
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -3.1    -3.0     128       0    17006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -1.5    -1.7     129       0    20006           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  -0.6    -4.8     129       0    20007           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-JAN   1.7    -5.1     129     512    22003           0.03            
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -0.1    -6.5     128     132    36003           0.14            
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  -4.5    -7.7     127       0    34007           0.07            
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  -9.3    -7.3     126       0    35006           0.03            
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.3    -6.8     127       0    35007           0.00            
MON 00Z 28-JAN  -5.0    -6.7     127       0    34005           0.00            
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -7.3    -4.2     128       0    33004           0.00            
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -8.5    -4.2     128       0    19003           0.00            
MON 18Z 28-JAN   3.0    -0.7     130    1700    19004           0.00            
TUE 00Z 29-JAN   1.9     4.2     132    7089    17007           0.00            
TUE 06Z 29-JAN   2.4     6.0     133    6839    19008           0.00            
TUE 12Z 29-JAN   3.3     4.3     133    6028    19007           0.01            
TUE 18Z 29-JAN   7.4     4.5     133    6332    20007           0.08            
WED 00Z 30-JAN   4.7     4.1     133    6906    32004           0.18            
WED 06Z 30-JAN  -2.5     1.7     129    7491    34007           0.36            
WED 12Z 30-JAN  -6.9    -0.1     127    4986    35009           0.28            

 

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