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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion


John1122
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37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

3k NAM is very aggressive for wave one still per the 06z run. At 0z the area of heavy snow was over NW Tn. Will have to see if other models begin to see this level of action or if it's just the 3k towards the end of it's range being a little too aggressive.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

Things that make you go hmm.....

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There are times I wish they offered a "wow" reaction here.  That's what I'd give to John's posts above!

I woke up for a rare midnight post and saw that someone had posted the 0z UKMET in the MA forum and thought, hmmm, I bet the Euro will be nice.  What an awesome run!  

giphy.gif

Ratio'd map John mentioned:

giphy.gif

 

 

 

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Storm cells looked good for one overnight run. Today CAMs are lined out for Saturday. Snow this weekend looks like mainly a Kentucky story, plus the usual higher elevations. Clearing Sunday night should allow viewing the lunar eclipse.

Middle of next week could be more interesting along I-40 and I-81 from northern Middle Tenn to TRI. Euro has that back piece of energy riding up the front. For CHA that set-up is a non-starter; but, it works points north and east.

GFS can't decide. ECMWF might lose it a run or two. However it shows up more times than not. Little early to fish out the back piece of energy on Pacific satellite; still, those systems already include multiple chunks of energy. It could happen.

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2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I think this medium/long range thread is appropriate for the sun forecast

We got our one week of sun and dry, now we have to pay 3-fold.  

It just seemed like that first system earlier in the week dropped the cloud deck and there was no recovery. Hopefully this more dynamic system this weekend and give us a clean sweep and scour out some of the low level moisture. Maybe 2 days with sun early next week? 

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1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

GEFS looks outstanding going forward.  Lots of cold and some interesting looks in regards to blocking in the next few weeks.  

I agree, the evolution at 500 is a crazy one not often seen in wintertime.  I think we are about to get very busy in the tracking department the next several weeks, regardless of the system next mid-week.

Speaking of the mid-week system, i do believe the chances are better than average someone in west, middle, or east TN sees accumulating snow from it.

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Just now, tnweathernut said:

I agree, the evolution at 500 is a crazy one not often seen in wintertime.  I think we are about to get very busy in the tracking department the next several weeks, regardless of the system next mid-week.

Speaking of the mid-week system, i do believe the chances are better than average someone in west, middle, or east TN sees accumulating snow from it.

I hope so, it would be an epic time to track stuff given what’s potentially on the table.  I agree with you on the mid week system.  12zFV3 spit out huge totals statewide at 12z.  CMC kept it more of a West tn to middle tn storm.  I’m anxious to see how the models trend over the next 2 days.  It will also be nice to see how the models did forecasting the temps for Saturday nights cool down, I think that will help is get a gauge of which model is leading the way in predicting this upcoming pattern.  

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I didn't think I'd see another 30 inch snow map for my area on the Euro ever, but that's the second this winter. This one looks much more realistic given the pattern and 0 temp issues. 

30 inch snow map and near 20 below zero. Similar to Feb 1996 when the area got 12-20 inches of snow and it was in that temp range.

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47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Ninja'd That's what I was about to say! lol

 

 

It's like the Euro said: "But wait, there's more! Act now and we'll throw in the TPV and a storm!"

 

Wow, finally got a good look at it. Now that would be nice to see. That drop into the negatives at the peak solar hours would be something I'd always remember. It would also break the previous record for the coldest air I've experienced at -17 by a degree.

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