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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

John1122

By John1122,
in Tennessee Valley

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Safe to say, if a few inches of snow can be laid down, there will not be much if any opportunity for moderation of any cold air dropping down from Canada!

Good post by Carvers.  Not much to add to that. Impressive cold now being shown.  If we can keep the southern jet active you have to think we time one up pretty soon.  SOI is back negative his am (-5.81), which is a good thing.  Hope we can keep it mostly negative for the better part of the next 45 days.

With all the snow being laid down just north of us. It would certainly aid the cold being colder than it would have otherwise been.

Good times likely incoming!

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Mr Bob
Mr Bob

They are out and you don't need the groundhog....weeks 2-6 are all very cold...I am going to need a trip to Aruba by mid February. 

John1122
John1122

Right now we have the EPS/GEFS/Weeklies showing winter in the heart of winter. We rarely ever manage to pull that look off. A few years ago we had a very snowy/cold stretch but even that one happened

nrgjeff
nrgjeff

Two systems to talk about next week, Tuesday and Friday. Figure 1/2 might pan out. Doubt both hit or both miss (except CHA). Tuesday is the Battle Royale. ECMWF and ICON insist snow all over. Eur

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Bango

Bango

Posted
Posted

I can't remember the last time vodka cold produced more than 1-2 inches from clippers etc. It is pretty awesome how snow can hang around after that kind of cold but  I'd rather see just slightly below normal for what is basically the coldest time of the year anyway

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Holston_River_Rambler

Holston_River_Rambler

Posted
Posted

I'll throw some reasoning in there too:

Hopefully,  by now, we've all seen the Fv3 and GFS 12z outputs beyond day 10. If you haven't check em out. 

I know the GFS/ Fv3 are normally problematic and the Fv3 at least isn't getting all the data it should because of the shutdown, but let's be honest, as poorly as they sometimes do against the Euro OP, they often do an ok job figuring out when a pattern is conducive for a storm, especially a big storm. Heck, they haven't been that far off on the big picture as it stands. GEFS help there too. I'll drop a Typhoon Tip quote from the NE forum and offer a translation:

"But just about every member of the GEFs carries either an event or a trough flex ... indicative of favorability in the overall numerical guidance coverage.  Usually important eras show up at extended leads because their presence ...however emergent, are either already detectable ...or the domain in question is exceptionally prone to something evolving given time - either way... The "already detectable" variety is usually < D10 however.."

Possible translation: big storms show up at long leads on ops and even ensembles run off a poor model because many parts of the atmosphere/ pattern are already conducive, but we should be careful since this is beyond 10 days.

Most numerical guidance, as I see it, has been pretty solid on some sort of a Miller B, inland cutter/ runner developing on an arctic boundary dropping in next weekend, now inside 10 days, Jeff's I-70 special. Could that change? Yeah, but I'm betting no. How far does the boundary get as it initially moves in? It's been so long that I can't remember, but don't these suckers usually have trouble making it over the plateau? I-70 can have that one if they want it. I'm hunting what comes after.

Maybe the PLINKO analogy is useful here too. Normally there are a wide range of options on the PLINKO board, but the more options we eliminate at closer leads (cold looks to be coming south, storm riding the boundary on all guidance) the less choices the PLINKO chip has at the start and the less likely some outcomes will be down the road and the more likely others will be. 

In fact, I would like it if the first wave would amplify enough to really pull the arctic boundary south. What does it encounter further south? The relatively warm waters of the Gulf and Atlantic. Fuel. 

Pull the boundary through. Let the I-70 special turn into a 50/50. Roll the (hopefully loaded) dice. 

Euro H5 relative vorticity from 0z:

giphy.gif 

Notice how much faster the second shortwave is moving down the front range, almost as if it were about to catch the energy in the SE, slowing as it runs into an Atlantic ridge and trying to turn up the coast. 

I think if the 0z Euro were to run a little further out, it might have shown a similar solution to the 12z GFS, but getting there from a different approach.

Now watch 12z Euro today shatter all this, lol.

TBH I'm struggling to say what I'm thinking. Maybe all just wishful thinking. It almost seems like it's better to track highs and arctic air at this point. The storms we have had no shortage of. Arctic air and nicely placed highs, not so much other than Dec. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Starting to think Carver's is going to get his dream scenario at some point in the next two weeks. 

Modeling is impressive.  The cold coming is the real deal.  Will be interesting to see what happens next weekend.  The system occurring now was shown to snow on TN just a few days ago, then modeling moved to KY.  It’s currently snowing all the way to Chicago.....lol.  

I think the modeling will have a chance to adjust the opposite direction next weekend. This type of cold USUALLY presses in faster than modeled.  I could certainly envision the rain to ice/snow scenario being advertised on some current modeling for next weekend.  

What follows after next weekend would also have enough cold to provide opportunities somewhere in our forum.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think we just got Euro'd:

giphy.gif 

giphy.gif 

Hard to tell where the fz heights fall for frozen.My 3hr in increments stop after 7 days,this is for BNA

  

THU 03Z 17-JAN   4.7     0.6     133    4789    25002           0.00            
THU 06Z 17-JAN   4.8     0.8     133    5044    16002           0.00            
THU 09Z 17-JAN   5.1     1.3     133    5877    16002           0.00            
THU 12Z 17-JAN   5.0     1.1     133    8077    17003           0.00            
THU 15Z 17-JAN   8.0     1.7     133    8528    17003           0.00            
THU 18Z 17-JAN  12.2     3.1     134    8597    17004           0.00            
THU 21Z 17-JAN  12.4     4.9     134    7722    17007           0.00            
FRI 00Z 18-JAN  10.7     5.1     134    7519    18007           0.01            
FRI 03Z 18-JAN   9.8     5.3     134    8003    18009           0.16            
FRI 06Z 18-JAN  10.1     5.8     134    7675    19009           0.23            
FRI 09Z 18-JAN  10.5     6.3     135    7225    20008           0.07            
FRI 12Z 18-JAN  10.6     6.7     135    7751    20007           0.09            
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  12.9     6.7     135    7741    22006           0.10            
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  10.9     7.0     135    7598    35004           0.16            
SAT 06Z 19-JAN   6.5     6.4     133    7396    36007           0.17            
SAT 12Z 19-JAN   3.4     4.5     132    7202    02008           0.07            
SAT 18Z 19-JAN   1.8     1.8     130    6010    03011           0.06            
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  -1.6    -1.9     128       0    02012           0.13            
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  -5.2    -5.6     126       0    36012           0.21            
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  -9.0    -8.0     124       0    00012           0.00            
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -5.3    -6.7     125       0    01010           0.00            
MON 00Z 21-JAN  -6.8    -5.8     126       0    00005           0.00            
MON 06Z 21-JAN -12.5    -4.4     126       0    03006           0.00            
MON 12Z 21-JAN -10.0    -2.0     128       0    08004           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-JAN   0.1    -1.3     129      50    16003           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -3.1     1.1     131    6634    17006           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -2.8     1.3     130    5628    18007           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -2.3    -1.0     129       0    18010           0.00
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Nice

  

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z JAN12
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 12-JAN   3.3     1.9    1026      67      76    0.00     570     549    
SAT 18Z 12-JAN   6.7     3.3    1024      67      43    0.01     568     548    
SUN 00Z 13-JAN   4.0     4.3    1022      98      97    0.16     566     548    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN   4.1     6.4    1018      99      99    0.26     565     550    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN   4.7     3.7    1018      96      55    0.11     561     547    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN   7.5     2.6    1018      92      72    0.04     560     545    
MON 00Z 14-JAN   7.3     1.3    1020      99      74    0.03     560     544    
MON 06Z 14-JAN   4.2    -0.3    1023      98      47    0.05     561     542    
MON 12Z 14-JAN   2.8    -2.2    1025      95      45    0.01     560     540    
MON 18Z 14-JAN   2.9    -3.1    1026      87      31    0.02     560     540    
TUE 00Z 15-JAN   2.1    -3.5    1026      89      62    0.02     558     537    
TUE 06Z 15-JAN   1.3    -5.6    1026      89      69    0.01     556     535    
TUE 12Z 15-JAN   0.2    -3.9    1026      85      21    0.00     558     537    
TUE 18Z 15-JAN   3.2    -0.5    1026      69       7    0.00     560     540    
WED 00Z 16-JAN   0.2     0.6    1024      85       6    0.00     561     542    
WED 06Z 16-JAN  -0.8     0.9    1024      86       5    0.00     562     543    
WED 12Z 16-JAN  -2.0    -0.2    1025      90       6    0.00     563     543    
WED 18Z 16-JAN   7.9     0.5    1023      59      18    0.00     564     545    
THU 00Z 17-JAN   3.3     0.4    1022      82       6    0.00     564     546    
THU 06Z 17-JAN   4.0    -0.6    1023      84      24    0.00     564     545    
THU 12Z 17-JAN   3.4     0.1    1023      90      19    0.00     564     545    
THU 18Z 17-JAN  10.2     1.2    1022      67      34    0.00     565     548    
FRI 00Z 18-JAN   7.6     3.2    1020      82      61    0.00     565     549    
FRI 06Z 18-JAN   7.0     4.8    1017      94      96    0.09     563     549    
FRI 12Z 18-JAN   8.0     5.5    1014      94      75    0.15     560     549    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  12.3     6.7    1012      84      68    0.03     560     550    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  11.0     6.9    1010      93      81    0.04     560     552    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  10.2     7.5    1010      98      93    0.04     559     551    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN   8.5     6.8    1010      98      84    0.19     558     550    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN   5.8     6.1    1011      98      98    0.17     557     549    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN   0.8     2.1    1011      99      99    0.30     554     545    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  -4.3    -7.3    1013      86     100    0.56     546     536    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  -8.1   -10.2    1022      73      27    0.35     545     528    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -7.1   -13.7    1028      55       4    0.00     547     525    
MON 00Z 21-JAN -10.9   -12.7    1033      69      14    0.00     550     525    
MON 06Z 21-JAN -15.4    -5.6    1036      75      17    0.00     555     528    
MON 12Z 21-JAN -15.4    -3.5    1036      77      12    0.00     564     536    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -3.7    -2.1    1035      57       4    0.00     570     542    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -5.7    -0.8    1034      70       2    0.00     572     546    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -8.7     0.6    1033      72       3    0.00     572     546    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -9.1    -0.7    1034      73       6    0.00     569     542
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z JAN12
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 12-JAN   4.4     3.7    1025      51      66    0.00     571     551    
SAT 18Z 12-JAN   5.8     3.7    1024      60      25    0.01     568     549    
SUN 00Z 13-JAN   4.0     5.6    1022      99      98    0.31     567     549    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN   4.8     5.8    1019     100      71    0.36     565     550    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN   5.1     3.9    1018      99      27    0.06     563     548    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN   9.3     3.0    1019      90      27    0.02     563     547    
MON 00Z 14-JAN   7.5     0.8    1021      94      32    0.02     564     546    
MON 06Z 14-JAN   4.2    -0.4    1024      93      23    0.00     564     545    
MON 12Z 14-JAN   3.3    -1.8    1026      89      39    0.00     563     542    
MON 18Z 14-JAN   4.9    -2.1    1026      77      14    0.00     563     542    
TUE 00Z 15-JAN   4.0    -3.3    1026      77      17    0.00     561     540    
TUE 06Z 15-JAN   2.2    -2.2    1026      78      40    0.00     558     537    
TUE 12Z 15-JAN   0.7    -1.1    1026      79      41    0.00     560     539    
TUE 18Z 15-JAN   5.2     0.9    1026      61      18    0.00     562     542    
WED 00Z 16-JAN   2.3     2.4    1024      80       6    0.00     562     543    
WED 06Z 16-JAN  -0.8     2.2    1025      91       5    0.00     564     545    
WED 12Z 16-JAN  -1.8     1.3    1025      94      15    0.00     565     545    
WED 18Z 16-JAN   9.6     2.2    1024      55       9    0.00     566     547    
THU 00Z 17-JAN   6.0     2.4    1022      76      34    0.00     567     548    
THU 06Z 17-JAN   3.5     1.4    1023      89      41    0.00     566     547    
THU 12Z 17-JAN   3.7     1.6    1023      90      33    0.00     566     548    
THU 18Z 17-JAN  12.1     2.0    1022      64      38    0.00     568     550    
FRI 00Z 18-JAN   9.4     4.5    1019      80      68    0.00     567     551    
FRI 06Z 18-JAN   8.1     4.9    1018      99      96    0.19     564     550    
FRI 12Z 18-JAN   8.5     6.5    1015      99      59    0.13     563     551    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  11.8     7.2    1012      92      50    0.05     562     552    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  12.0     7.8    1010      98      59    0.02     562     554    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  11.3     8.2    1010      99      68    0.05     561     553    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  11.5     7.6    1009      99      97    0.17     560     552    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN   9.8     7.4    1009     100      96    0.26     558     551    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN   3.3     5.4    1007      99      99    0.42     555     549    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  -2.7    -3.9    1011      86     100    0.35     546     538    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  -5.2    -6.3    1020      68      33    0.22     546     531    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -3.8    -7.0    1026      48       4    0.00     550     529    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  -6.1    -5.6    1031      60      14    0.00     552     528    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  -9.6    -3.3    1035      65      11    0.00     557     531    
MON 12Z 21-JAN -11.9    -1.9    1036      71       7    0.00     566     538    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -0.6    -1.2    1035      40       4    0.00     571     544    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -3.4     0.3    1033      60       3    0.00     574     547    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -4.4     1.7    1034      62       3    0.00     573     546    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -5.9    -1.1    1035      56       5    0.00     569     542
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z JAN12
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 12-JAN   1.7    -0.6    1028      73      87    0.00     569     547    
SAT 18Z 12-JAN   5.9     1.9    1026      42      44    0.01     568     547    
SUN 00Z 13-JAN   2.3     3.5    1025      92      90    0.06     566     546    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN   2.6     5.2    1021      99      68    0.23     564     547    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN   3.6     3.0    1019      95      56    0.30     561     545    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN   7.7     2.3    1017      82      75    0.01     559     544    
MON 00Z 14-JAN   5.5     0.9    1020     100      94    0.11     558     542    
MON 06Z 14-JAN   5.1     0.1    1021      99      91    0.04     559     542    
MON 12Z 14-JAN   1.8    -2.0    1024     100      89    0.05     558     539    
MON 18Z 14-JAN   2.2    -3.3    1025      92      63    0.03     558     538    
TUE 00Z 15-JAN   1.1    -4.0    1025      97      89    0.03     556     536    
TUE 06Z 15-JAN   0.3    -6.2    1025      96      83    0.03     554     534    
TUE 12Z 15-JAN  -1.0    -6.9    1026      89      19    0.00     556     535    
TUE 18Z 15-JAN   2.3    -3.9    1025      59      10    0.00     558     538    
WED 00Z 16-JAN  -0.7    -2.3    1024      78       8    0.00     560     540    
WED 06Z 16-JAN  -2.6    -0.4    1024      88       5    0.00     560     541    
WED 12Z 16-JAN  -3.4    -0.7    1025      90       2    0.00     562     542    
WED 18Z 16-JAN   6.3    -0.9    1023      59      25    0.00     562     543    
THU 00Z 17-JAN   2.8    -0.5    1022      81      26    0.00     562     544    
THU 06Z 17-JAN   2.0    -1.9    1024      91       8    0.00     562     543    
THU 12Z 17-JAN   0.9    -1.9    1024      94      11    0.00     562     543    
THU 18Z 17-JAN   7.7     0.4    1022      70      30    0.00     563     545    
FRI 00Z 18-JAN   5.9     1.4    1021      83      38    0.00     564     546    
FRI 06Z 18-JAN   5.4     2.9    1018      82      75    0.01     562     547    
FRI 12Z 18-JAN   5.4     3.7    1014      95     100    0.17     559     547    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN   9.4     4.9    1012      92      80    0.04     559     549    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN   7.5     6.0    1010      99      93    0.06     559     550    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN   7.4     6.2    1011      99      91    0.11     558     550    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN   5.9     5.9    1011      98      98    0.23     557     548    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN   4.8     5.8    1011      94      98    0.12     557     547    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  -0.8     2.0    1012      98      96    0.34     554     544    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  -6.2    -4.3    1012      83      96    0.70     548     538    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN -10.5   -12.1    1023      73      43    0.18     544     526    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -9.2   -17.7    1028      50       2    0.00     545     523    
MON 00Z 21-JAN -14.0   -16.8    1033      71       8    0.00     547     522    
MON 06Z 21-JAN -20.7    -8.1    1037      82      18    0.00     552     524    
MON 12Z 21-JAN -20.5    -5.6    1038      80      27    0.00     561     532    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -2.9    -3.8    1034      44       7    0.00     567     540    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -6.1    -2.3    1033      67       2    0.00     571     544    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN -12.9    -0.7    1034      76       2    0.00     571     545    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN -15.2    -0.3    1034      72       5    0.00     569     542
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z JAN12
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 12-JAN   6.0     2.7    1018      63      51    0.00     565     550    
SAT 18Z 12-JAN   7.7     5.5    1015      94      64    0.41     561     549    
SUN 00Z 13-JAN   9.6     4.6    1014      96      59    0.07     560     549    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN   8.5     2.8    1016      98      33    0.03     561     548    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN   4.5    -0.2    1021      91      21    0.00     563     546    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN   5.2     0.2    1025      79      15    0.00     565     545    
MON 00Z 14-JAN   4.9    -2.8    1027      75      13    0.00     566     544    
MON 06Z 14-JAN   3.2    -2.5    1029      77      14    0.00     566     543    
MON 12Z 14-JAN   0.6    -3.2    1029      87      19    0.00     566     542    
MON 18Z 14-JAN   5.3    -3.0    1030      71      23    0.00     566     542    
TUE 00Z 15-JAN   4.2     0.3    1028      76      42    0.00     564     541    
TUE 06Z 15-JAN   2.3     1.6    1028      85      40    0.00     563     540    
TUE 12Z 15-JAN  -1.2     1.5    1028      94      36    0.00     564     542    
TUE 18Z 15-JAN   7.4     2.5    1027      65      32    0.00     566     544    
WED 00Z 16-JAN   4.0     3.2    1024      86      12    0.00     567     548    
WED 06Z 16-JAN   3.1     3.7    1024      90       8    0.00     568     549    
WED 12Z 16-JAN   2.4     3.6    1023      93      53    0.00     568     549    
WED 18Z 16-JAN  11.8     3.1    1023      66      38    0.00     569     550    
THU 00Z 17-JAN   7.9     3.8    1021      87      47    0.00     569     551    
THU 06Z 17-JAN   7.9     3.0    1022      89      55    0.00     569     551    
THU 12Z 17-JAN   8.6     4.7    1020      93      49    0.00     568     552    
THU 18Z 17-JAN  14.0     7.0    1018      82      50    0.00     569     553    
FRI 00Z 18-JAN  12.2     7.4    1015      95      48    0.05     565     553    
FRI 06Z 18-JAN  12.1     7.4    1013      97      66    0.12     563     552    
FRI 12Z 18-JAN  12.7     8.1    1010      99      57    0.02     562     554    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  15.2     8.4    1009      91      43    0.09     562     554    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  10.2     6.8    1010      94      38    0.05     560     552    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN   6.3     6.1    1011      90      71    0.03     558     549    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN   3.6     6.5    1011      88      82    0.02     555     546    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN   1.9     5.2    1010      91      85    0.13     552     544    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  -2.1    -5.6    1016      84      88    0.45     547     535    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  -4.8    -5.2    1023      70      60    0.23     549     531    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  -8.5    -4.2    1030      76      11    0.00     551     528    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -4.6    -3.6    1034      56       9    0.00     554     528    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  -7.1    -2.9    1035      73      24    0.00     558     531    
MON 06Z 21-JAN -12.3    -2.2    1036      69       7    0.00     566     538    
MON 12Z 21-JAN -16.4     0.0    1035      69       3    0.00     571     545    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -1.2     0.9    1033      47       2    0.00     573     548    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -2.7     2.1    1028      63       1    0.00     571     549    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -0.4     2.3    1029      72       7    0.00     568     545    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -1.2    -2.6    1028      86      14    0.00     562     540
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Just noticed the Euro got real cold in the Western Valley

  

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z JAN12
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 12-JAN                  42.8    31.1    14007   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  45.8    42.6    45.9    44.2    15013   0.41    0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  50.2    45.9    49.2    48.2    16004   0.07    0.00      94    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  49.5    46.5    47.3    46.6    30010   0.03    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  47.3    40.1    40.1    37.7    30009   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN  41.4    39.1    41.4    35.5    31009   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 14-JAN  41.8    40.9    40.9    33.5    33007   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 14-JAN  40.9    37.9    37.8    31.1    35006   0.00    0.00      87    
MON 12Z 14-JAN  37.8    33.1    33.1    29.8    35005   0.00    0.00      64    
MON 18Z 14-JAN  41.4    33.0    41.6    32.8    34005   0.00    0.00      97    
TUE 00Z 15-JAN  43.0    39.7    39.6    32.5    34004   0.00    0.00      73    
TUE 06Z 15-JAN  39.6    36.1    36.1    32.1    07002   0.00    0.00      46    
TUE 12Z 15-JAN  36.2    29.7    29.9    28.4    13003   0.00    0.00       8    
TUE 18Z 15-JAN  45.2    29.1    45.4    34.1    24001   0.00    0.00       9    
WED 00Z 16-JAN  48.4    39.4    39.2    35.3    20004   0.00    0.00      36    
WED 06Z 16-JAN  39.9    37.6    37.6    35.0    20005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 16-JAN  37.6    36.4    36.4    34.6    21005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 18Z 16-JAN  53.0    36.1    53.3    42.4    23005   0.00    0.00      93    
THU 00Z 17-JAN  56.1    46.5    46.3    42.5    18005   0.00    0.00      23    
THU 06Z 17-JAN  46.5    44.9    46.1    43.2    17004   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 12Z 17-JAN  48.7    46.2    47.5    45.6    17006   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 18Z 17-JAN  57.9    47.5    57.2    51.8    19010   0.00    0.00      99    
FRI 00Z 18-JAN  57.7    54.0    54.0    52.7    18009   0.05    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 18-JAN  53.9    52.8    53.9    53.1    20007   0.12    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 18-JAN  55.4    53.9    54.9    54.5    19005   0.02    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  59.3    54.7    59.4    56.8    24006   0.09    0.00      99    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  61.9    50.7    50.3    48.7    01009   0.05    0.00     100    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  50.3    43.5    43.4    40.7    02009   0.03    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  43.4    38.7    38.5    35.3    03012   0.02    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN  38.5    35.5    35.4    33.0    03015   0.13    0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  35.4    28.4    28.3    24.2    01016   0.45    0.22      93    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  28.3    23.5    23.3    15.0    00016   0.23    0.23     100    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  23.4    16.7    16.6    10.3    00013   0.00    0.00       4    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  23.5    16.1    23.7    10.2    00009   0.00    0.00       1    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  25.7    19.6    19.3    11.9    34005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  19.3     8.5     9.8     1.4    05006   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 21-JAN   9.8     2.1     2.5    -5.5    12006   0.00    0.00      96    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  29.3     2.3    29.9    12.0    16004   0.00    0.00      72    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  36.4    25.7    27.1    16.2    16006   0.00    0.00      92    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  31.2    27.2    31.2    23.1    17009   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  31.4    29.7    29.8    26.0    17008   0.00    0.00      95
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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Just noticed the Euro got real cold in the Western Valley

  


ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z JAN12
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 12-JAN                  42.8    31.1    14007   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  45.8    42.6    45.9    44.2    15013   0.41    0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  50.2    45.9    49.2    48.2    16004   0.07    0.00      94    
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  49.5    46.5    47.3    46.6    30010   0.03    0.00     100    
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  47.3    40.1    40.1    37.7    30009   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 13-JAN  41.4    39.1    41.4    35.5    31009   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 14-JAN  41.8    40.9    40.9    33.5    33007   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 14-JAN  40.9    37.9    37.8    31.1    35006   0.00    0.00      87    
MON 12Z 14-JAN  37.8    33.1    33.1    29.8    35005   0.00    0.00      64    
MON 18Z 14-JAN  41.4    33.0    41.6    32.8    34005   0.00    0.00      97    
TUE 00Z 15-JAN  43.0    39.7    39.6    32.5    34004   0.00    0.00      73    
TUE 06Z 15-JAN  39.6    36.1    36.1    32.1    07002   0.00    0.00      46    
TUE 12Z 15-JAN  36.2    29.7    29.9    28.4    13003   0.00    0.00       8    
TUE 18Z 15-JAN  45.2    29.1    45.4    34.1    24001   0.00    0.00       9    
WED 00Z 16-JAN  48.4    39.4    39.2    35.3    20004   0.00    0.00      36    
WED 06Z 16-JAN  39.9    37.6    37.6    35.0    20005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 16-JAN  37.6    36.4    36.4    34.6    21005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 18Z 16-JAN  53.0    36.1    53.3    42.4    23005   0.00    0.00      93    
THU 00Z 17-JAN  56.1    46.5    46.3    42.5    18005   0.00    0.00      23    
THU 06Z 17-JAN  46.5    44.9    46.1    43.2    17004   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 12Z 17-JAN  48.7    46.2    47.5    45.6    17006   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 18Z 17-JAN  57.9    47.5    57.2    51.8    19010   0.00    0.00      99    
FRI 00Z 18-JAN  57.7    54.0    54.0    52.7    18009   0.05    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 18-JAN  53.9    52.8    53.9    53.1    20007   0.12    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 18-JAN  55.4    53.9    54.9    54.5    19005   0.02    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  59.3    54.7    59.4    56.8    24006   0.09    0.00      99    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  61.9    50.7    50.3    48.7    01009   0.05    0.00     100    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  50.3    43.5    43.4    40.7    02009   0.03    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  43.4    38.7    38.5    35.3    03012   0.02    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN  38.5    35.5    35.4    33.0    03015   0.13    0.00     100    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  35.4    28.4    28.3    24.2    01016   0.45    0.22      93    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  28.3    23.5    23.3    15.0    00016   0.23    0.23     100    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  23.4    16.7    16.6    10.3    00013   0.00    0.00       4    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  23.5    16.1    23.7    10.2    00009   0.00    0.00       1    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  25.7    19.6    19.3    11.9    34005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  19.3     8.5     9.8     1.4    05006   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 21-JAN   9.8     2.1     2.5    -5.5    12006   0.00    0.00      96    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  29.3     2.3    29.9    12.0    16004   0.00    0.00      72    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  36.4    25.7    27.1    16.2    16006   0.00    0.00      92    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  31.2    27.2    31.2    23.1    17009   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  31.4    29.7    29.8    26.0    17008   0.00    0.00      95

  Wow, that is some serious cold.  I’ll be busy covering greens at the course in the coming week if this look continues to show!

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John1122

John1122

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Posted
1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Should be,i'm wondering why the map you posted shows rain on the backside?That should be fz

If you notice, models often do this, it's basically their representation of mist/high humidity that isn't even falling to the surface. Not sure why it does it but I began to notice it a while back. I saw it explained better by someone else.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
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Posted
32 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

So, it appears that the latest GFS run is not having any of the frigid cold and storminess, hopefully just a hiccup...

It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs  rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska.

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs  rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska.

All right, I will trust you, and hope to see my frigid temps back over night lol!

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