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Rtd208

January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I hate the cold. 

I agree.   This type of cold makes it tough to do day to day things.   Extremely difficult to be outside for more than a few seconds at a time

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Very impressive to have 2 single digit lows in NYC in the same winter. Doesn't happen too often.

Jan 1994, got to 0 and below in two separate Arctic shots.  Hopefully we get a similar February turnaround, although perusing the New England threads, they don't expect anything for the first half of February.  So we basically have the last two weeks of February and the first two weeks of March.  2012-13 was like that.

 

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2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I agree.   This type of cold makes it tough to do day to day things.   Extremely difficult to be outside for more than a few seconds at a time

it's going to be in the mid 50s next week, this is not sticking around more than a couple days.

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

it's going to be in the mid 50s next week, this is not sticking around more than a couple days.

And that's not going to stick around either

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1994, got to 0 and below in two separate Arctic shots.  Hopefully we get a similar February turnaround, although perusing the New England threads, they don't expect anything for the first half of February.  So we basically have the last two weeks of February and the first two weeks of March.  2012-13 was like that.

 

As much as I want this winter to be over and back to warm weather, I’m still quite leery of late February and early March.  I have a nagging feeling that we haven’t seen the last cold/snow period.  Cold/snow in March is awful 

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

temp will keep dropping through 8 AM

Not true today. Bottomed out at 530. On its way back up since then.

 

.8F for low, now 1.1F

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The good news is that the squall put NYC over an inch for January. So this is the lowest January snowfall since 2013. Both years followed a big November snowstorm.

1 2019 1.1 1
2 2018 11.2 0
3 2017 7.9 0
4 2016 27.9 0
5 2015 16.9 0
6 2014 19.7 0
7 2013 1.5 0
8 2012 4.3 0
9 2011 36.0 0
10 2010 2.1

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The good news is that the squall put NYC over an inch for January. So this is the lowest January snowfall since 2013. Both years followed a big November snowstorm.

1 2019 1.1 1
2 2018 11.2 0
3 2017 7.9 0
4 2016 27.9 0
5 2015 16.9 0
6 2014 19.7 0
7 2013 1.5 0
8 2012 4.3 0
9 2011 36.0 0
10 2010 2.1

 

How much did NYC get in the squall?  JFK couldn't have gotten much, it looked like a small coating or dusting around here even though you couldn't see anything outside for 30 min.  I bet JFK got like 0.2 lol

Also when was the last time NYC got less than an inch in January and how much snow did they have in December 2012?

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much did NYC get in the squall?  JFK couldn't have gotten much, it looked like a small coating or dusting around here even though you couldn't see anything outside for 30 min.  I bet JFK got like 0.2 lol

0.4. NYC now has more seasonal snow than 12-13 by the end of January. Both years had odd El Niño interactions. Remember that El Niño peaked in the fall and diminished into the winter. But the same big November snowstorm followed by the El Niño progression where February and March were the snowiest months. The bar is set pretty low now for February or March to have at least a better snowstorm than December and January.

2019-01-31 7.5 1
2018-01-31 18.9 0
2017-01-31 11.1 0
2016-01-31 27.9 0
2015-01-31 18.1 0
2014-01-31 28.3 0
2013-01-31 6.6 0
2012-01-31 4.3 0
2011-01-31 56.1 0
2010-01-31 14.5
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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

0.4. NYC now has more seasonal snow than 12-13 by the end of January. Both years had odd El Niño interactions. Remember that El Niño peaked in the fall and diminished into the winter. But the same big November snowstorm followed by the El Niño progression where February and March were the snowiest months. The bar is set pretty low now for February or March to have at least a better snowstorm than December and January.

2019-01-31 7.5 1
2018-01-31 18.9 0
2017-01-31 11.1 0
2016-01-31 27.9 0
2015-01-31 18.1 0
2014-01-31 28.3 0
2013-01-31 6.6 0
2012-01-31 4.3 0
2011-01-31 56.1 0
2010-01-31 14.5

Good to see us a bit ahead of the 2012-13 pace!  The big storm that year occurred on 2-8, do you see the pattern getting favorable before or around Feb 10th or would it be after mid Feb?

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The good news is that the squall put NYC over an inch for January. So this is the lowest January snowfall since 2013. Both years followed a big November snowstorm.

1 2019 1.1 1
2 2018 11.2 0
3 2017 7.9 0
4 2016 27.9 0
5 2015 16.9 0
6 2014 19.7 0
7 2013 1.5 0
8 2012 4.3 0
9 2011 36.0 0
10 2010 2.1

 

November snow is the kiss of death, it's not just hyperbole

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Good to see us a bit ahead of the 2012-13 pace!  The big storm that year occurred on 2-8, do you see the pattern getting favorable before or around Feb 10th or would it be after mid Feb?

 

Very hard to tell how long it will take to see an advisory or warning level snow. But the bar is set pretty low to beat 2002 and 2012. Those were the lowest snowfall years since 2000 after February 1st.

1 2002-04-30 T 0
2 2012-04-30 0.2 0
3 2016-04-30 4.9 0
4 2004-04-30 5.5 0
5 2011-04-30 5.8 0
6 2000-04-30 6.8 0
7 2008-04-30 9.0 0
8 2007-04-30 9.8 0
9 2009-04-30 12.6 0
10 2001-04-30 13.3 0
11 2017-04-30 19.1 0
12 2013-04-30 19.5 0
13 2018-04-30 22.0 0
14 2005-04-30 22.7 0
15 2006-04-30 28.3 0
16 2014-04-30 29.1 0
17 2015-04-30 32.2 0
18 2003-04-30 33.6 0
19 2010-04-30 36.9
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35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's going to be in the mid 50s next week, this is not sticking around more than a couple days.

with no blocking and a fast flow, any weather pattern will be short lived the next couple of weeks...

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56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's going to be in the mid 50s next week, this is not sticking around more than a couple days.

These big 50 degree or greater temperature jumps are becoming the new normal. But it looks like the Midwest temperature rise will beat us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1090916238581293057?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Moline, IL just set its all-time record low in the -30s. By Sunday, they'll be ~80˚ warmer. Green Bay, currently hovering around -20˚, may flirt with a daily record high Sunday. Talk about a temperature lurch!

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The 0.4 inches of snow recorded in Central Park, yesterday, now leaves NYC needing 30.7 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30 inch average for snowfall, when the new 30 year averages come out in January 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell between now and December 31 2020.

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These big 50 degree or greater temperature jumps are becoming the new normal. But it looks like the Midwest temperature rise will beat us.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1090916238581293057?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Moline, IL just set its all-time record low in the -30s. By Sunday, they'll be ~80˚ warmer. Green Bay, currently hovering around -20˚, may flirt with a daily record high Sunday. Talk about a temperature lurch!

They had the high pressure directly over head and were able to radiate

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe the colder air moving further east increases the chances of NYC getting to negative numbers this morning!

What I remember about Jan 1985 is that it hit -2 in NYC and it was the last time we had a high in the single digits.  Atlanta got down to -8 and it was -18 in the DC area!

There were several zero or below Arctic shots here in the early to mid 80s- Christmas 1980, Jan 1982, Jan 1985

I heard low was 2F at NYC CP this morning. Haven't had chance to verify and on the run now , but I hard only 4 days this cold in the past 30 years... heard from one of your favorite long rangers.  It is having impact here today.  Walt 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I heard low was 2F at NYC CP this morning. Haven't had chance to verify and on the run now , but I hard only 4 days this cold in the past 30 years... heard from one of your favorite long rangers.  It is having impact here today.  Walt 

If this airmass had been a direct shot from eastern Canada we would have crushed those -2 lows in 1985 and 1994 and likely would have been down around -5 or so

 

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30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I heard low was 2F at NYC CP this morning. Haven't had chance to verify and on the run now , but I hard only 4 days this cold in the past 30 years... heard from one of your favorite long rangers.  It is having impact here today.  Walt 

This is only the 4th time since 1970 that NYC reached 2 degrees or lower this late in the season. Interesting that 3 out of the 4 times were since 2015. 

From January 31 on

1-31-19....2

2-14-16....-1

2-20-15......2

2-18-79......0

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is only the 4th time since 1970 that NYC reached 2 degrees or lower this late in the season. Interesting that 3 out of the 4 times were since 2015. 

From January 31 on

1-31-19....2

2-14-16....-1

2-20-15......2

2-18-79......0

I want to say 2-14-16 was the only case of NYC going below 0 in an El Niño winter.   I seem to remember hearing that at the time

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