Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Weeklys come out absolutly banging. Where is the winter cancle crowd now? Always a good idea to cancle winter before our best month for snow and specifically KUs. LBSF when are we looking at ? Before or after the Super Bowl Feb 3rd ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Weeklys come out absolutly banging. Where is the winter cancle crowd now? Always a good idea to cancle winter before our best month for snow and specifically KUs. Seen this movie before. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Seen this movie before. Yeah, like Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football....still I hope it is true this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Weeklys come out absolutly banging. Where is the winter cancle crowd now? Always a good idea to cancle winter before our best month for snow and specifically KUs. Well to be fair, we've all seen this story before. Believe it when I see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: LBSF when are we looking at ? Before or after the Super Bowl Feb 3rd ? Other then a brief relaxation around week 2 it’s just wall to wall for all 6 weeks. There is a reason the pros (the real deal guys not the clicks for dollars crew) have been so optimistic about February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 So JAN is over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Other then a brief relaxation around week 2 it’s just wall to wall for all 6 weeks. There is a reason the pros (the real deal guys not the clicks for dollars crew) have been so optimistic about February I think I'll just wait until I see a snow covered ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah, like Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football....still I hope it is true this time. yep-they've looked good for the better part of a month-not much to show for it in the snowfall dept....first 2/3 of met winter have delivered a grand total of less than one inch...who predicted that on 12/1????? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 February is looking amazing on the long range. We could even hit below zero here in the city 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: So JAN is over? No 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yep-they've looked good for the better part of a month-not much to show for it in the snowfall dept....first 2/3 of met winter have delivered a grand total of less than one inch...who predicted that on 12/1????? Actually they haven't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: All surrounding stations are 2" or greater for today. Yet another big rainstorm in the middle of winter. 2.27 in my tipping gauge and 2.38 in tube gauge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Picked up 0.99" of rain for the day. Current temp 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Actually they haven't To his point though, we know that going back over a month ago that the "weeklies" and "tellies" looked good. On 12/17/2018 at 6:18 PM, Snow88 said: Weeklies look awesome On 12/17/2018 at 7:08 PM, Snow88 said: Cold but we know they can change Everyone is on board with a big pattern change by the 1st week of January. I wouldn't discount snow for xmas. Still have to watch it. Mjo is on the move. Get some sleep 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I think I'll just wait until I see a snow covered ground. Hard to argue with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Next week looks interesting for a few inches of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Ummmm euro looks very interesting and so does Canadian of course the worst model goofus shows this as a cold front with a period of snow. Euro shows a potent bombogenesis benchmark Miller B. Canadian shows similar just coastal hugger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Remainder of Jan. averaging 31degs., or 1deg. BN. Month to date is +1.4[33.7]. Should end the month near +0.7[33.1]. All 8 days are averaging 30degs., or about 2degs. BN. EURO is 3" of Snow the next 10 days, with a -4 Low on Feb. 03. The GEFS is a 40% chance of at least 7" of Snow by Feb. 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: 0z Euro backed off on the intensity of the cold behind the storm near the end of the month. The actual forecast is sensitive to the PV location and wind direction. So there is a chance that it won’t get cold enough to drop the monthly departures to negative. Jan temperature departures through the 24th NYC....+1.4 LGA.....+1.3 EWR....+1.7 JFK......+1.3 ISP.......+2.0 BDR......+1.9 The Op run kept the PV up in Canada basically even Chicago didn’t get that cold either. It’s an outlier at the moment though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: It will come down to the storm evolution. A deeper low through New England could squeeze the PV just to our north with more westerly flow for us. Guidance a few days ago was weaker with the storm and had colder temperatures. At the same time though I think that PV not dropping way south changes the entire forecast days 5-10 as far as having better snow chances. If that thing comes south we probably are dry for 3-4 days. If it hangs up more in SE canada something could happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 21 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: March is hard to predict at the moments. In general positive SOI or SOI El Niño winters averaging between -5 and 0 tend to have mild Marches The way the season has evolved and even though 2012-13 was not a true el nino (we have to get away from being too dependent on ENSO), do you think this season may follow a similar progression? Bluewave (Chris) and I have been talking about it extensively in the NYC area subforum, that starting with the November snowstorm and continuing with what our area has experienced both temp and snowfall-wise, this season has been a very good match to 2012-13. Does this mean eastern regions will get a megasnowstorm in February? Obviously not, but perhaps the risks are higher than they would ordinarily be and if it does happen, I do hope it's a big event for more than just the eastern regions. In addition to that, we had a significant event in March, so since the whole pattern change was delayed this season just like it was in 2012-13 do you think the chances are now higher that the wintry pattern may continue on into March? My thinking is yes. from Tom's thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 0z Euro backed off on the intensity of the cold behind the storm near the end of the month. The actual forecast is sensitive to the PV location and wind direction. So there is a chance that it won’t get cold enough to drop the monthly departures to negative. Jan temperature departures through the 24th NYC....+1.4 LGA.....+1.3 EWR....+1.7 JFK......+1.3 ISP.......+2.0 BDR......+1.9 Thats actually a good thing, those 80s snow drought winters all had cold Januarys, the more cold, the more suppressed so we want to see just average cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thats actually a good thing, those 80s snow drought winters all had cold Januarys, the more cold, the more suppressed so we want to see just average cold. It would be a first for NYC if it can hold a positive temperature departure for the rest of the month. Every other January since 1980 with a low under 5 degrees finished with a cold departure for January. NYC Januaries since 1980 with a low under 5 degrees 2014....-4.0...28.6 2004....-7.9...24.7 2000....-1.3...31.3 1997....-0.5...32.1 1994....-7.1...25.5 1985....-3.1....28.8 1982....-6.5....26.1 1981.....-6.4....26.2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be a first for NYC if it can hold a positive temperature departure for the rest of the month. Every other January since 1980 with a low under 5 degrees finished with a cold departure for January. NYC Januaries since 1980 with a low under 5 degrees 2014....-4.0...28.6 2004....-7.9...24.7 2000....-1.3...31.3 1997....-0.5...32.1 1994....-7.1...25.5 1985....-3.1....28.8 1982....-6.5....26.1 1981.....-6.4....26.2 So now the chances for having a 0 or below low look much less likely? Jan 1996 didnt have a low under 5, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Latest NAO stays positive PNA rises AO tanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Latest NAO stays positive PNA rises AO tanks and the MJO stays out of the game for a while in the COD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: and the MJO stays out of the game for a while in the COD That wouldn't be a bad thing at all. Let's hope we get some snow in February because it has been boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: and the MJO stays out of the game for a while in the COD Don`t use the RIMM plots , we are going to into P7 - P8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Latest NAO stays positive PNA rises AO tanks Yes sounds like we will still have some issues at the coast. The rain/snow line will always be close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: 8 ball or ouiji board ? And I will use whatever I want and other METS are using what I am. They aren`t - I am just trying to help you, most Mets are not using the RIMM plots , they opt for the VP200 anomalies , it filters better. Just helping you out buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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