LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m not sure we are there yet but we are getting there. I think the problem the last 6 or so years is something unrelated. Even during the 1980s the NAO still was negative a decent amount of time although only the 83-84 and 84-85 winters saw it average negative overall those were awful winters back then too lol cold and dry or warm and wet. Jan 1985 had that historic cold snap followed by a mild Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We don't need a negative nao for snow. trust me, you need it THIS winter for any kind of snow that matters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's a shame we probably won't get an 18Z sounding from OKX. Both 925 and 850mb winds are forecast at record levels the next several hours. Fairly widespread 80-85KT winds showing up on the JFK terminal doppler and DIX between 2000-5000', with a few embedded maxes over 90KT, and the jet is still forecast to intensify. Hard to say if it will mix down in a widespread fashion, but I'd imagine a few 50KT gusts are possible in the region between 11-3ish. I hope we get a tornado or other severe weather event that makes them have to give us soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: I’m not talking about next week. I said come the 2nd week of February. You can see the retrogression on all models The NAO block remains elusive. It appears we have a 2 week window for some action...if the NAO block does come then things could change... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's a shame we probably won't get an 18Z sounding from OKX. Both 925 and 850mb winds are forecast at record levels the next several hours. Fairly widespread 80-85KT winds showing up on the JFK terminal doppler and DIX between 2000-5000', with a few embedded maxes over 90KT, and the jet is still forecast to intensify. Hard to say if it will mix down in a widespread fashion, but I'd imagine a few 50KT gusts are possible in the region between 11-3ish. Just had a gust to 43 mph in Wantagh ahead of the main squall line this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good luck with that. We can’t buy a -NAO the last few winters. I think we have entered into a long term +NAO cycle related to the long term -AMO flip NAO blocking seems to have deceased when the water in the NOrth Atlantic cooled around 2013... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The NAO block remains elusive. It appears we have a 2 week window for some action...if the NAO block does come then things could change... We haven't necessarily needed it but that's because the Pacific blocking had been stellar. This year, so far, we haven't had either so it's been crappy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: We haven't necessarily needed it but that's because the Pacific blocking had been stellar. This year, so far, we haven't had either so it's been crappy. The PAC has surprised me. With that warm blob up near AK I would have figured we’d get a good -EPO. Instead we’ve had a strong pac jet all season killing the ridge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We haven't necessarily needed it but that's because the Pacific blocking had been stellar. This year, so far, we haven't had either so it's been crappy. The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? without a neg nao you need the pacific to be great a la 1993-94 and 2002-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just had a gust to 43 mph in Wantagh ahead of the main squall line this afternoon. it feels like a spring storm outside with raging downpours and high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: without a neg nao you need the pacific to be great a la 1993-94 and 2002-03 13-14 amd 14-15 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 P7 by the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: 13-14 amd 14-15 too yes 14-15 had the amazing turnaround the Pac was GREAT that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? By then or post 2/20 winter will be wrapping up anyway, so it won't matter. And I don't expect March to bail us out again either. Time is ticking now, we're just about at peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: yes 14-15 had the amazing turnaround the Pac was GREAT that year 14-15 had a classic, very strong ++PDO which we don’t have the luxury of now. It played a huge role in the very favorable Pac side we had back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Few inches on Wednesday with the anafront and then the brutally cold air comes rushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 is that small hail I hear pinging outside? hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: looks like the NAO might stay near neutral or even a little positive, Don. That appears to be the case according to the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 This wind is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it feels like a spring storm outside with raging downpours and high winds Farmingdale gusting to 51 mph now. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kfrg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: By then or post 2/20 winter will be wrapping up anyway, so it won't matter. And I don't expect March to bail us out again either. Time is ticking now, we're just about at peak climo. March is hard to predict at the moments. In general positive SOI or SOI El Niño winters averaging between -5 and 0 tend to have mild Marches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Farmingdale gusting to 51 mph now. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kfrg It is wild out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: There’s pretty good guidance suggesting that we go positive EPO and back to zonal come the 2nd week of February. If you look at the 200mb, the Pacific jet is gaining quite a bit a strength now over the far western Pacific again and it would appear another jet extension period is building up Where you seeing that ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 This pre-frontal feature with embedded rotation is what may bring the gusts down on LI - it might just clip eastern Queens. The cold front is farther NW and has lighter winds associated with it. 90KT+ showing up aloft just off the Jersey Shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 NYC will test 0 next week with or without snow on the ground. Jan 30 /31 - Feb 4 will be the coldest 5 day period KNYC will see this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Where you seeing that ? Orh from sne also disagreed with him 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: This pre-frontal feature with embedded rotation is what may bring the gusts down on LI - it might just clip eastern Queens. The cold front is farther NW and has lighter winds associated with it. 90KT+ showing up aloft just off the Jersey Shore. Already gusting past 50 out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Orh from sne also disagreed with him I love to see guidance that maybe I missed , I was hoping he could show me. Another BOZO in here from Red Bank posed in here a week ago that the upcoming period would have the trough in the west. He`s going to test zero during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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