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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don it seems like one of those late 80s, early 90s winters (or something like 2006-07) is shaping up.  In a way it's fascinating because I've always wondered what caused the 80s and early 90s to be like they were, despite ENSO, NAO, whatever, and it seems like it might have been the MJO that was controlling our weather despite what the other indices were doing.  

Also it seems like we get our coldest winters in years that have a lot of mixed precip events so we might be in one of those patterns where we have extreme cold punctuated by snow to ice to rain storms once a week or so followed by more cold.  2006-07 was the most recent winter in which this happened.

I would be more hopeful of a snowy late January and February if the el nino was stronger and could take over the pattern and then analogs like 83, 03, 10 and 16 could've come into play.

 

Severe blocking (AO -3.000 or below) was almost twice as frequent during the snowy 1999-00 through 2015-16 period as it was during the 1979-80 through 1998-99 period. I suspect that we will get our chances now that the pattern change is upon us. The EPS weeklies continue to show a 500 mb pattern that has been conducive to a lot of snow in past winters.

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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Now 4.4" thick. I've never recorded daily ice thickness on my pond during freeze-up periods before, and it's really interesting. Wish I had paid attention during the extreme cold periods of the past.

I hope you're recording now at least, its never too late to start recording weather obs.

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Now 4.4" thick. I've never recorded daily ice thickness on my pond during freeze-up periods before, and it's really interesting. Wish I had paid attention during the extreme cold periods of the past.

I've monitored ice thicknesses on our lake for years for ice fishing purposes. Got up to 3 1/2" in early December before the melt. Deepest I've ever seen it was 22" thick.

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I hope you're recording now at least, its never too late to start recording weather obs.

I often neglect to keep records because I figure there's no way I'll still be living in the HV for more than another year or so, and then what's the point? I think the first time I said that was around 2001... lol. But I'm definitely interested to keep tabs on the ice at least for the rest of this season and see what the data looks like come springtime.

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8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Anybody starting to think FOK is off with the temps?

 

Very well aware of the geographic situation out there having a house nearby...but it seems to have become one of the coldest spots in the entire region on nights where radiational cooling plays a large factor. And despite significant development around that parcel of pine barrens over the last 20 years...the cold nights seem to have intensified.

Thoughts?

For those not familiar, FOK sits in the middle of Pine Barrens on sandy soil with the Atlantic just south, the Peconic Bay just NE. While the area may seem isolated, Long Island is relatively small width wise. Major towns such as Riverhead and Hampton Bays are in (relatively) close proximity

 

The airport itself is a former Air Force (now national guard) base that is very underused. 

The NWS actually did a study on this. Since the ASOS is situated on a sand field, it radiates better than the surrounding area.

https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/woc/winter/microclimates/OKX/IC_43_Sears_OKX.pdf

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8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I also wanted to share this photo for its interesting snowfall pattern.

 

DelMarVa Peninsula approaching Ocean City on 1/15.

 

You can see the rain snow line from the last storm spared a small section of farmland.

Imagine this happening on Long Island? You south shore guys would go nuts!

DB31F998-F8D7-4FC6-84D9-6A6DCC899827.jpeg

It does and they do.

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An increasingly wild weather pattern is now taking hold.

The SOI was -7.30 today. It has been negative for 15 out of the last 17 days.

The AO was -0.241. That is the 11th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.077.

On January 15, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.954(RMM). That amplitude had risen above the January 14-adjusted figure of 0.480.

The recent uncertainty concerning the progression of the MJO has largely resolved itself with the MJO's making a strong push toward higher amplitudes. The MJO's re-emergence in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above is now imminent. After that, the MJO could advance fairly quickly through Phase 4 and into Phases 5 and 6. As the MJO moves through Phases 5 and 6, the AO could go positive for a time (as has been indicated on the guidance). However, with the AO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

For New York City, beginning with winter 1950-51, winters with 0 days on which the AO fell to -3.000 or below averaged just 22.5" snow. Those with 1 or more days where the AO was -3.000 or below averaged 28.2". Those with 5 or more such days of severe blocking averaged 30.6". The possibility exists for multiple such days beginning in late January and continuing into the start of February, especially as the impact of the recent SSW event works through the troposphere.

A small system could bring a light accumulation of snow (generally a coating to an inch of snow with locally higher amounts of up to 2") to parts of the region tomorrow night into Friday morning. Boston, which has received a record low 0.2" snow to date (the old record was 0.6" in 1927-28), could pick up about an inch of snow.

A larger storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period. The balance of risks is weighted against significant snowfall from the weekend storm along the immediate coast. Nevertheless, a moderate snowfall remains possible in this area. There is a growing risk of a significant period of sleet and freezing rain in parts of the coastal plain. Cities such as Albany, Bangor, Binghamton, Burlington, Concord, Rochester, Rutland, Scranton, and Syracuse, along with much of Maine remain in line to receive a substantial snowfall.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area continues to increase. The guidance is suggesting the potential for a severe cold shot following the January 19-21 storm. Another more prolonged shot of notable cold is possible toward the end of the month.

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9 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I also wanted to share this photo for its interesting snowfall pattern.

 

DelMarVa Peninsula approaching Ocean City on 1/15.

 

You can see the rain snow line from the last storm spared a small section of farmland.

Imagine this happening on Long Island? You south shore guys would go nuts!

DB31F998-F8D7-4FC6-84D9-6A6DCC899827.jpeg

It's absolutely happened on the south shore. I remember a Dec 2005 storm that was 4-6" in northern Nassau and all rain in Long Beach. The 2/13/14 disaster was another one. It rained at my house for hours while north of Sunrise Highway raked it in. 

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27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Euro is slightly warmer but the freezing line is just north of the city.

Tomorrow's the day that you wanna see better changes. 

As of now I don't buy the big ice storm threat because of the airmass ahead of it. So my only hope is that models trend towards a weaker, southern system.

My preliminary guess is that we'll see some mixed precip/snow ahead of the system, then 40s and rain, and finally cold & dry with temps in the teens. Ice will be confined to 30-40 miles north of the city.

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28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO was -0.241. That is the 11th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.077.

On January 15, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.954(RMM). That amplitude had risen above the January 14-adjusted figure of 0.480.

Great write up Don, thank you !

Just wondering whether you have any insights into something that was puzzling me, in regards to the NAO.

The GEFS and the EPS forecast later in the month the development of a -NAO. 

I believe most seasonal models such as the Euro, UkMet, JMA and even the CFS have a strong -NAO signal and a corresponding Greenland block that depending what long range model you look at retros it later in Feb into a Davis Straights block. 

MY question is why did the GFS and the GFS upgrade turn on a dime in the last 24 hours totally changing the Pacific and Altantic blocking signatures, it was not a gradual change but a sudden change. Yet, the GEFS and the EPS as of today show a -NAO developing late in the month. 

Any ideas Don why this is ? Thanks as always. ( I heard it might be due to the Pac and the MJO phase but nothing concrete ) 

Also, if time permits with the sustained -SOI do you forsee a possible coupling finally of the Nino ocean and atmosphere by later in Feb possibly? I believe @bluewavemade a post either today or yesterday where he felt there was a chance at that happening. Thanks  

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

Great write up Don, thank you !

Just wondering whether you have any insights into something that was puzzling me, in regards to the NAO.

The GEFS and the EPS forecast later in the month the development of a -NAO. 

I believe most seasonal models such as the Euro, UkMet, JMA and even the CFS have a strong -NAO signal and a corresponding Greenland block that depending what long range model you look at retros it later in Feb into a Davis Straights block. 

MY question is why did the GFS and the GFS upgrade turn on a dime in the last 24 hours totally changing the Pacific and Altantic blocking signatures, it was not a gradual change but a sudden change. Yet, the GEFS and the EPS as of today show a -NAO developing late in the month. 

Any ideas Don why this is ? Thanks as always. ( I heard it might be due to the Pac and the MJO phase but nothing concrete ) 

Also, if time permits with the sustained -SOI do you forsee a possible coupling finally of the Nino ocean and atmosphere by later in Feb possibly? I believe @bluewavemade a post either today or yesterday where he felt there was a chance at that happening. Thanks  

I can’t speak about the FV3 MJO forecast. However, the GFS takes the MJO through Phases 5 and 6 at a higher amplitude than the GEFS. 

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34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tomorrow's the day that you wanna see better changes. 

As of now I don't buy the big ice storm threat because of the airmass ahead of it. So my only hope is that models trend towards a weaker, southern system.

My preliminary guess is that we'll see some mixed precip/snow ahead of the system, then 40s and rain, and finally cold & dry with temps in the teens. Ice will be confined to 30-40 miles north of the city.

 

33 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

IF we see 40s and rain tomorrow night itll probably be the biggest model bust temps wise since the invention of computers. 

I think you'e talking about 2 different systems here-the 1st post is 1/20 and the 2nd is 1/17

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31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I can’t speak about the FV3 MJO forecast. However, the GFS takes the MJO through Phases 5 and 6 at a higher ampplitude than the GEFS. 

Thanks as always Don. Will be interesting to see the outcome of the MJO and the performance of the GFS versus the EPS and GEFS at higher lattitudes later on in the month and maybe the GFS will move back into the EPS corner.  

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Severe blocking (AO -3.000 or below) was almost twice as frequent during the snowy 1999-00 through 2015-16 period as it was during the 1979-80 through 1998-99 period. I suspect that we will get our chances now that the pattern change is upon us. The EPS weeklies continue to show a 500 mb pattern that has been conducive to a lot of snow in past winters.

Don what do you think was the reason we had much colder winters back then but much less snow? Januaries back in the 80s almost universally had monthly average temps in the mid to upper 20s and the southern track was much more frequent with several cases of DC getting more snow than what they've gotten in the last couple of decades (outside of the really big winters like 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2009-10.)

 

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