January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That would be silly.  

Nah, the NWS speaks the gospel.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Rjay said:

That would be silly.  

They have blown major forecasts within 24 hours multiple times over the past few years. Jan 15 and March 17 two great examples. This is 5, five, FIVE!!! Days away

[Rjay]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They have blown major forecasts within 24 hours multiple times over the past few years. Jan 15 and March 17 two great examples. This is 5, five, FIVE!!! Days away

November of this year.

I'm not a NWS basher as I believe they do a great job overall but they miss things sometimes 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They have blown major forecasts within 24 hours multiple times over the past few years. Jan 15 and March 17 two great examples. This is 5, five, FIVE!!! Days away

Granted, that is true, but in the post I saw they mentioned their reasoning, no blocking and no cold air damming, things I see people around here say are pretty necessary. Are you saying that these factors can change? Can blocking develop by then? I am not a student of meteorology, so I am trusting those who know these things. I was under the impression, from reading here, that we are missing key elements.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

November of this year.

I'm not a NWS basher as I believe they do a great job overall but they miss things sometimes 

Fair points. But given the time of year in Nov, I could give them a pass. I would think at this time of year they could smoke out a potential snow storm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Rjay said:

November of this year.

I'm not a NWS basher as I believe they do a great job overall but they miss things sometimes 

Yeah the November one was pretty bad as well. Granted this situation is off the charts. Very few if any analogs. 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They have blown major forecasts within 24 hours multiple times over the past few years. Jan 15 and March 17 two great examples. This is 5, five, FIVE!!! Days away

My understanding is forecasting actual snow totals is tricky; we did get snow in those storms, but not nearly as much as forecast. Here they are saying mainly rain, with impunity....

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Fair points. But given the time of year in Nov, I could give them a pass. I would think at this time of year they could smoke out a potential snow storm.

Jan 2015 they followed the euro all the way even when it was all alone and busted big time

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Granted, that is true, but in the post I saw they mentioned their reasoning, no blocking and no cold air damming, things I see people around here say are pretty necessary. Are you saying that these factors can change? Can blocking develop by then? I am not a student of meteorology, so I am trusting those who know these things. I was under the impression, from reading here, that we are missing key elements.

For this one to go right for the coast we need the entire low to be several hundred miles further south. Unlikely but not impossible. Several ways to get there. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For this one to go right for the coast we need the entire low to be several hundred miles further south. Unlikely but not impossible. Several ways to get there. 

Bear with me. If the low goes south ( but not too far, right? ) how does this keep the storm frozen as opposed to liquid.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Jan 2015 they followed the euro all the way even when it was all alone and busted big time

Yes, that was curious, I remember other models had shown the eastern trend. And people here were arguing, but many had jumped ship and didn't expect the huge totals. In the March 2017 scenario, they held onto the warnings because they felt 5 inches of sleet was dangerous, and they didn't want people to think it was hunky dory all of a sudden.

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Nah, the NWS speaks the gospel.

I hate you. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

I hate you. 

Well, they were right in some of those areas...

[Juliancolton]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

I hate you. 

Lest we forget

[donsutherland1]

The guidance is moving into agreement for New York City to see its coldest temperature since November 23, 2018 on January 21 and perhaps its coldest reading of the winter so far.

The SOI was -4.80 today. It has been negative for 14 out of the last 16 days.

The AO was -0.125. That is the 10th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.074.

On January 14, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.479(RMM). That amplitude was below the January 13-adjusted figure of 0.571.

Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. As previously noted, there is only a single case where the MJO re-emerged at a high amplitude in Phase 3 after having moved into the low amplitude values while in Phase 8. The guidance has now moved away from that scenario (favoring re-emergence into Phase 4 or 5; historically, Phase 5 would be more likely). The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude prior to its return to the colder phases.

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely for much of the rest of January. The guidance suggests that the AO could briefly go positive in coming days but then go strongly negative during the last week of the month. Severely negative AO figures correlate to colder than normal weather. For example, during the January 25-February 10 period, the mean temperature in New York City for cases when the AO was -3.000 or below (1981-2018) was 27.9°. For all other cases during that period, the mean temperature was 34.1°.

An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination.

Opportunities for snowfall are now increasing. A small system could bring a light accumulation of snow to parts of the region Thursday night and Friday. A larger storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period. However, the balance of risks has recently become weighted against significant snowfall from the weekend storm along the immediate coast. Nevertheless, a moderate snowfall remains possible. Cities such as Albany, Bangor, Binghamton, Burlington, Concord, Rochester, Rutland, Scranton, and Syracuse, along with much of Maine remain in line to receive a substantial snowfall.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area continues to increase. The guidance is suggesting the potential for a severe cold shot following the January 19-21 storm. Another more prolonged shot of notable cold is possible toward the end of the month.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The SOI dropped to -7.30. The 30 Day SOI value will drop to 0 in a couple of days or so.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/14/2019 at 12:01 PM, gravitylover said:

You have to at least go outside to listen to it. There's something special and scary about ice storms that need to be experienced aurally.

Yes, once the wind got going it was pretty eery.  I could hear my echo quite clearly and I heard weird musical sounds coming from the tree branches lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The guidance is moving into agreement for New York City to see its coldest temperature since November 23, 2018 on January 21 and perhaps its coldest reading of the winter so far.

The SOI was -4.80 today. It has been negative for 14 out of the last 16 days.

The AO was -0.125. That is the 10th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.074.

On January 14, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.479(RMM). That amplitude was below the January 13-adjusted figure of 0.571.

Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. As previously noted, there is only a single case where the MJO re-emerged at a high amplitude in Phase 3 after having moved into the low amplitude values while in Phase 8. The guidance has now moved away from that scenario (favoring re-emergence into Phase 4 or 5; historically, Phase 5 would be more likely). The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude prior to its return to the colder phases.

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely for much of the rest of January. The guidance suggests that the AO could briefly go positive in coming days but then go strongly negative during the last week of the month. Severely negative AO figures correlate to colder than normal weather. For example, during the January 25-February 10 period, the mean temperature in New York City for cases when the AO was -3.000 or below (1981-2018) was 27.9°. For all other cases during that period, the mean temperature was 34.1°.

An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination.

Opportunities for snowfall are now increasing. A small system could bring a light accumulation of snow to parts of the region Thursday night and Friday. A larger storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period. However, the balance of risks has recently become weighted against significant snowfall from the weekend storm along the immediate coast. Nevertheless, a moderate snowfall remains possible. Cities such as Albany, Bangor, Binghamton, Burlington, Concord, Rochester, Rutland, Scranton, and Syracuse, along with much of Maine remain in line to receive a substantial snowfall.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area continues to increase. The guidance is suggesting the potential for a severe cold shot following the January 19-21 storm. Another more prolonged shot of notable cold is possible toward the end of the month.

Don it seems like one of those late 80s, early 90s winters (or something like 2006-07) is shaping up.  In a way it's fascinating because I've always wondered what caused the 80s and early 90s to be like they were, despite ENSO, NAO, whatever, and it seems like it might have been the MJO that was controlling our weather despite what the other indices were doing.  

Also it seems like we get our coldest winters in years that have a lot of mixed precip events so we might be in one of those patterns where we have extreme cold punctuated by snow to ice to rain storms once a week or so followed by more cold.  2006-07 was the most recent winter in which this happened.

I would be more hopeful of a snowy late January and February if the el nino was stronger and could take over the pattern and then analogs like 83, 03, 10 and 16 could've come into play.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Rjay said:

November of this year.

I'm not a NWS basher as I believe they do a great job overall but they miss things sometimes 

it's not a fault of the NWS that meteorology isn't an exact science though. all forecasters make mistakes

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 30degs , or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is +2.1[35.3].    Should be +1.1[33.4] by the 24th.

EURO is 7" of Snow for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 50/50 on at least 14" by start of Feb.   One member has 47"!!!  Gonna be wrong--- be really wrong I say.

Bottom line is that the GFS turns a potential 32" [10 days] into 4" which will not even be left on the ground when all is done.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is forecast to move back closer to phase 7 or 8 near the end of the month anyway. Combined with the other players on the field, you would expect to see the changes that are showing up on the current day 11-15. But I don’t like to jump ahead to day 11-15 before discussing what is right in front of us. Remember, subtle shifts in the 8-10 will show up 11-15. 

I cant help but wonder if this is how our cold winters in the 80s turned out to have so little snow lol, we got a snapshot of that in 06-07 too

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant help but wonder if this is how our cold winters in the 80s turned out to have so little snow lol, we got a snapshot of that in 06-07 too

First half of winter snow this low so far has been more common in recent years especially with Niño type winters. But it did happen in some El Niño years in the 1980’s also. Most El Niño’s have the  snowiest and coldest part of winter after January 15th. 

NYC snow 12-01 to Jan 15th

1	1871-01-15	0.0	0
2	2019-01-15	T	0
-	2016-01-15	T	0
-	2012-01-15	T	0
-	2007-01-15	T	0
-	2000-01-15	T	0
-	1998-01-15	T	0
-	1973-01-15	T	0
-	1966-01-15	T	0
-	1889-01-15	T	0
11	1901-01-15	0.1	0
12	1995-01-15	0.2	0
13	1907-01-15	0.3	0
14	2013-01-15	0.4	0
15	2002-01-15	0.5	0
16	1919-01-15	0.6	0
17	1992-01-15	0.7	0
-	1937-01-15	0.7	0
19	1986-01-15	0.9	0
-	1932-01-15	0.9	0
21	1972-01-15	1.0	0
-	1878-01-15	1.0	0
-	1876-01-15	1.0	0
24	1987-01-15	1.1	0

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

First half of winter snow this low so far has been more common in recent years especially with Niño type winters. But it did happen in some El Niño years in the 1980’s also. Most El Niño’s have there snowiest and coldest part of winter after January 15th. 

NYC snow 12-01 to Jan 15th

1	1871-01-15	0.0	0
2	2019-01-15	T	0
-	2016-01-15	T	0
-	2012-01-15	T	0
-	2007-01-15	T	0
-	2000-01-15	T	0
-	1998-01-15	T	0
-	1973-01-15	T	0
-	1966-01-15	T	0
-	1889-01-15	T	0
11	1901-01-15	0.1	0
12	1995-01-15	0.2	0
13	1907-01-15	0.3	0
14	2013-01-15	0.4	0
15	2002-01-15	0.5	0
16	1919-01-15	0.6	0
17	1992-01-15	0.7	0
-	1937-01-15	0.7	0
19	1986-01-15	0.9	0
-	1932-01-15	0.9	0
21	1972-01-15	1.0	0
-	1878-01-15	1.0	0
-	1876-01-15	1.0	0
24	1987-01-15	1.1	0

Chris, do all these hugger storm tracks we have seen so far this season concern you? Even the November 15th storm tracked close to us.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do all these hugger storm tracks we have seen so far this season concern you? Even the November 15th storm tracked close to us.

I think this is part of the split flow and fast PAC Jet. The very active MJO in the Maritime Continent phases is a big piece of this. We also saw the +SOI out of phase with the El Niño for much of the winter. But that has begun to become more neutral to weakly negative recently. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get a classic intense benchmark storm where the coast is nearly 100% snow from start to finish. That has been one storm track that has been lacking since the fall. But there is still time to turn this around during the 2nd half of winter.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think this is part of the split flow and fast PAC Jet. The very active MJO in the Maritime Continent phases is part of this. We also saw the +SOI out of phase with the El Niño for much of the winter. But that has begun to become more neutral to weakly negative recently. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get a classic intense benchmark storm where the coast is nearly 100% snow from start to finish. That has been one storm track that has been lacking since the fall. But there is still time to turn this around during the 2nd half of winter.

and we usually see one of those every winter no matter how little snow we get that winter lol.

Do you think this kind of MJO may have been behind our "bad luck" during the 80s and early 90s, when locations to the south, west, north and east of us were all getting more snow than we were regardless of ENSO, NAO or anything else and even though the winters were colder back then?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Very interesting radiational cooling last night.

KFOK 10 with many hours in the low teens 

lGA  31

FRG 21 in between the two

Even EWR made it down to 24

[the_other_guy]

Anybody starting to think FOK is off with the temps?

 

Very well aware of the geographic situation out there having a house nearby...but it seems to have become one of the coldest spots in the entire region on nights where radiational cooling plays a large factor. And despite significant development around that parcel of pine barrens over the last 20 years...the cold nights seem to have intensified.

Thoughts?

For those not familiar, FOK sits in the middle of Pine Barrens on sandy soil with the Atlantic just south, the Peconic Bay just NE. While the area may seem isolated, Long Island is relatively small width wise. Major towns such as Riverhead and Hampton Bays are in (relatively) close proximity

 

The airport itself is a former Air Force (now national guard) base that is very underused. 

[Dan76]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Anybody starting to think FOK is off with the temps?

 

Very well aware of the geographic situation out there having a house nearby...but it seems to have become one of the coldest spots in the entire region on nights where radiational cooling plays a large factor. And despite significant development around that parcel of pine barrens over the last 20 years...the cold nights seem to have intensified.

Thoughts?

For those not familiar, FOK sits in the middle of Pine Barrens on sandy soil with the Atlantic just south, the Peconic Bay just NE. While the area may seem isolated, Long Island is relatively small width wise. Major towns such as Riverhead and Hampton Bays are in (relatively) close proximity

 

The airport itself is a former Air Force (now national guard) base that is very underused. 

Permafrost? 

[the_other_guy]

I also wanted to share this photo for its interesting snowfall pattern.

 

DelMarVa Peninsula approaching Ocean City on 1/15.

 

You can see the rain snow line from the last storm spared a small section of farmland.

Imagine this happening on Long Island? You south shore guys would go nuts!

[Juliancolton]

20 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Just measured 3.6" on the same side as the outlet stream, so probably even a little thicker farther out.

Now 4.4" thick. I've never recorded daily ice thickness on my pond during freeze-up periods before, and it's really interesting. Wish I had paid attention during the extreme cold periods of the past.