January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[NYCweatherNOW]

Just now, purduewx80 said:

nope. all the ensembles favor a colder storm than the GFS and GEM ops.

That’s true GEFS AND GEPS are colder but it’s still so far away. I’d like the GfS to get on board

[purduewx80]

Steady as she goes on the 12Z EPS next weekend w/ 850 temps touching 0; otherwise track of the mean low would be favorable for mostly frozen precip here. May be some boundary layer issues Friday but I think that's worth watching for a few inches, too.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Steady as she goes on the 12Z EPS next weekend w/ 850 temps touching 0; otherwise track of the mean low would be favorable for mostly frozen precip here. May be some boundary layer issues Friday but I think that's worth watching for a few inches, too.

 Alot of qpf on the mean

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not even the normally colder Para GFS is showing anything like the Euro. For now, op Euro vs the world. EPS should be interesting 

The ensembles have the low off the coast for all the models.

[SnowGoose69]

That SWFE on the Euro at 108 is about as perfect as it gets for NYC on a SWFE.  Energy into the west which prevents the SWFE from being able to amplify too much and vortex far enough south in Canada it can’t track north.  Only need to hold it for 4 1/2 more days  

[purduewx80]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 Alot of qpf on the mean

Yep - I'd say that's the most well agreed upon part of the forecast. Friday's system helps open up the Gulf for business. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

For sure, there is nothing redeeming about ice storms. They are evil. Not fun to sit through, dangerous to go out in, and cause power outages that can result in basement floods. I like snow, but I'll take a snowless winter in the 40' and 50's to avoid an ice storm. I am hoping the guidance changes over the week. Right now, things just don't seem to be swinging our way with snowstorms. 

if you have a trap in the basement where the main sewer line is just knock the nut on the top of the upper highest cap with a long handled hammer to get it off if you have flooding caused by a sump pump failure   lets the water drain temporarily ---any ways we want the EURO up to stay just like this and let the other models ops and ensembles move back towards it .

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190121-0600z.html

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That SWFE on the Euro at 108 is about as perfect as it gets for NYC on a SWFE.  Energy into the west which prevents the SWFE from being able to amplify too much and vortex far enough south in Canada it can’t track north.  Only need to hold it for 4 1/2 more days  

There is a wave before the main event that might drop some snowfall.

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

if you have a trap in the basement where the main sewer line is just knock the nut on the top of the upper highest cap with a long handled hammer to get it off if you have flooding caused by a sump pump failure   lets the water drain temporarily ---any ways we want the EURO up to stay just like this and let the other models ops and ensembles move back towards it .

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190121-0600z.html

Thanks, but no trap, have dual sump pumps and a back up water pressure operated pump, so I'm good this year, but a lot of people aren't. These kinds of storms, mercifully, aren't common around here.

[Brasiluvsnow]

I don't think I can do a week of watching these models = I might have to give myself a timeout. Does anyone here expect the models to stay remotely consistent and not show a different solution a day from now never mind a week form now ? I wish the event was closer .

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

I don't think I can do a week of watching these models = I might have to give myself a timeout. Does anyone here expect the models to stay remotely consistent and not show a different solution a day from now never mind a week form now ? I wish the event was closer .

No.  It’ll change for sure.  But we are headed into more of a classic Niño pattern here and the tendency during those is for less model volatility since usually you have less of a pacific jet messing things up and the Euro tends to perform better during El Niño as well 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There is a wave before the main event that might drop some snowfall.

Perhaps we are going to get some interesting winter weather after all. People forget, but aside from a snow to ice event in Dec 93, the epic 94 winter didn't get rolling til after the MLK ice storm, and there were reprieves in between when it got milder and we thought we were done. don't know if you are old enough to remember it well.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Perhaps we are going to get some interesting winter weather after all. People forget, but aside from a snow to ice event in Dec 93, the epic 94 winter didn't get rolling til after the MLK ice storm, and there were reprieves in between when it got milder and we thought we were done. don't know if you are old enough to remember it well.

NYC and western LI did well in December 93 because of two fluke events that missed a good portion of the remainder of the area.  I think Central Park had 9-10 inches that month.  12/11/93 mostly delivered snow from EWR-FRG.  The late December snow event only really hit coastal areas.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No.  It’ll change for sure.  But we are headed into more of a classic Niño pattern here and the tendency during those is for less model volatility since usually you have less of a pacific jet messing things up and the Euro tends to perform better during El Niño as well 

Thanks

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, hopefully the Euro is wrong here. None of the other guidance like GFS, UK,and  CMC have an ice storm like that. 

Not that it matters because it doesnt but I think the fv3 had a run with lots of freezing rain and temps between 8-12 degrees. 

[Mark McIntyre]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Not that it matters because it doesnt but I think the fv3 had a run with lots of freezing rain and temps between 8-12 degrees. 

Was it this one? The 06z Sat run? 

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC and western LI did well in December 93 because of two fluke events that missed a good portion of the remainder of the area.  I think Central Park had 9-10 inches that month.  12/11/93 mostly delivered snow from EWR-FRG.  The late December snow event only really hit coastal areas.  

I forget which one it was, but it was pretty close to an ice event, after some snow, whereas the MLK one was just a little snow that quickly turned to accumulating ice, the likes of which I have never seen since. I assume we have better tools to predict that kind of thing these days. Caught most of us by surprise, we were expecting all snow.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I forget which one it was, but it was pretty close to an ice event, after some snow, whereas the MLK one was just a little snow that quickly turned to accumulating ice, the likes of which I have never seen since. I assume we have better tools to predict that kind of thing these days. Caught most of us by surprise, we were expecting all snow.

Overall the forecasts in the 93-94 winter weren’t too bad.  The first three events busted and the worst part is forecasts had it right in 2 of the 3 at 48-72 hours out and bailed late and got burn.  The winter storm watches were dropped for 12/29 only to have to be reissued when the storm tracked way closer.  I remember seeing the radar at 2-3pm in south jersey and thinking why did we drop those watches again?  12/11/93 the forecasts were for snow Saturday morning but 12Z guidance came in Friday backed off and most of the headlines were dropped 

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Was it this one? The 06z Sat run? 

the FV3 and each American model has to be questioned on whether they are even working properly and all the necessary data is being fed into them because of the prolonged shutdown - I find it suspicious that the GFS para went from a total of over 30 inches on the 6Z run to next to nothing snowfall on the 12Z run

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

the FV3 and each American model has to be questioned on whether they are even working properly and all the necessary data is being fed into them because of the prolonged shutdown - I find it suspicious that the GFS para went from a total of over 30 inches on the 6Z run to next to nothing snowfall on the 12Z run

I just posted in the SNE thread too that since we are headed out of the roaring Pacific jet and into a slower moving more El Niño like pattern the GFS is likely going to begin getting schooled by the Euro

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

All I have to say is locked and loaded right now. Do not pay attention to individual model runs at this lead time. The signal is there and exactly where we want it.

[NYCweatherNOW]

EPS looks amazing

[Stormlover74]

Upton fairly bullish

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the mid 20s. 

.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs
in the lower 30s. 

[gravitylover]

I know the models aren't running quite right and not being tweaked due to the shutdown, are they also not going to be sending balloons and such so not collecting proper data?

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Think this is the storm you're talking about. Trying to dig up surface obs but Plymouth State & Iowa State don't go back far enough.

Interesting write ups on the 1/7/94 major ice storm, below.  Ray Martin's quote is pretty stark: "Ice accretion from freezing rain exceeded 1 inch across much of central New Jersey, making this the worst ice storm in modern times across this part of the state."  Unfortunately, I was in Ireland for for work during Dec/Jan and missed all the fun.  I remember my wife telling me about how horrible the ice storms were and I had a hard time believing her, lol - there was no internet and I never got to read any reports of the storm at the time, but obviously, since then, I've heard tons.  

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94.html

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2013/08/historical-case-study-of-january-7-1994.html

 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting write ups on the 1/7/94 major ice storm, below.  Ray Martin's quote is pretty stark: "Ice accretion from freezing rain exceeded 1 inch across much of central New Jersey, making this the worst ice storm in modern times across this part of the state."  Unfortunately, I was in Ireland for for work during Dec/Jan and missed all the fun.  I remember my wife telling me about how horrible the ice storms were and I had a hard time believing her, lol - there was no internet and I never got to read any reports of the storm at the time, but obviously, since then, I've heard tons.  

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94.html

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2013/08/historical-case-study-of-january-7-1994.html

 

You could not get your car out. You could not get any kind of salt, including table salt, or sand, or cat litter. It was a real disaster. I took two steps out of my house, having never seen over an inch of ice in my life ( I was 32 ) and promptly fell on my back, and three more times trying to get up. There was an inch of ice on my windshield. 

[MJO812]

Gfs blows up the 1st wave for Friday. That might be a little treat before the main event.

We want an amped up solution for Friday. 

The main event looks good so far.

[David-LI]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs blows up the 1st wave for Friday. That might be a little treat before the main event.

We want an amped up solution for Friday. 

The main event looks good so far.

A little treat of rain on Friday, but looking great for the next storm. 

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I know the models aren't running quite right and not being tweaked due to the shutdown, are they also not going to be sending balloons and such so not collecting proper data?

That WaPo article appears to have been incorrect in regards to the GFS "not being tweaked".  Aside from any 100% normal changes in forecast skill, there are no obvious issues being caused by the shutdown.

There have been some minor issues with NWS offices not receiving shipments of helium/equipment to launch their balloons.  OKX was one of those offices that missed a few soundings in the past week. As far as I understand, no data is going missed other than a 1-off RAOB here and there.

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

A little treat of rain

More likely white rain verbatim. Only surface appears to be above freezing.