Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,389
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    crossbowftw3
    Newest Member
    crossbowftw3
    Joined
Rtd208

January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Believe this show temperatures anomalies rather than temperatures.  Still seriously chilly though. 

It literally says 2m temperatures on the top. Ridging from the North Pole to just N of Alaska through the extended period has already and will continue to deliver frigid air into North America. Widespread -30s in place over the NW Territories this morning. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Because that's never happened in this region and although it's physically possible, it's an extreme case particularly in this area. 

Most likely case would be a rain to arctic cold system, sleet storm, or a much warmer freezing rain event. 

Depends on your definition of region? I have personally watched pretty heavy freezing rain falling with a temp of +3° here.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worst I’ve ever seen around here was 1994. Temperature around 25 degrees with heavy rain. Everything was coated with around an inch of ice afterwards. The ice stayed for several days as temps were in the teens by day and single digits at night.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Depends on your definition of region? I have personally watched pretty heavy freezing rain falling with a temp of +3° here.

In and around the immediate NYC metro. 

And that's remarkable, the best I've seen was low 20s with light freezing rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They been missing storms to the north, east and south for years now. We cant get every storm. 

Right, and you have to think there are kids down there who are the way we were when we were there age wondering if it’ll ever snow again, so I hope they enjoy this.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

In and around the immediate NYC metro. 

And that's remarkable, the best I've seen was low 20s with light freezing rain. 

The only saving grace with that was the temp steadily rose all day and night into the 40's by the next morning. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Depends on your definition of region? I have personally watched pretty heavy freezing rain falling with a temp of +3° here.

I have seen an extended period of heavy freezing rain at +12.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be fun to see the city drop below zero but no one should be rooting for what the models are showing after the storms. I experienced -20 in Ithaca in February 2014 (no wind, fortunately) and it was insanely cold. If you didn't wear goggles your eyes would instantly water from the cold and start to freeze shut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No snow up here, also full sunshine now.

I’m on board for next weekend. The ice is likely overdone. Think most of that mixed precip would verify as sleet but haven’t looked at soundings. A week out so lots of time for significant changes.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember one freezing rain event on NYE maybe back in the 70's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe that ice storm in 1994 hammered us at the Jersey Shore as well and was the same day as the California earthquake.  We may have been off for school for MLK day. That was the most ice I've ever seen at the shore.  It was even worse a few miles northwest of Belmar.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I believe that ice storm in 1994 hammered us at the Jersey Shore as well and was the same day as the California earthquake.  We may have been off for school for MLK day. That was the most ice I've ever seen at the shore.  It was even worse a few miles northwest of Belmar.  

The 93-94 winter had a massive freezing rain storm in the metro with temps in the single digits, further upstate had freezing rain with temps below zero

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we get something closer to 12z GFS and don’t have to worry about ice. 

Gfs has redevelopment further SE. I think that's possible given the strength of the polar air to the north. 

I think a snow/sleet event is on the table too.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dec 16th, 1973 was one of Long Islands (south of the LIE)worst ice storms  It was the day that OJ ran for 200 yards against the Jets at Shea  I remember watching the snow/sleet mix at Shea while just 25 miles to the ESE in Wantagh it was 27F with a steady rain  The next morning with brilliant sunshine was a sight to behold  albeit as treacherous as you can imagine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs has redevelopment further SE. I think that's possible given the strength of the polar air to the north. 

I think a snow/sleet event is on the table too.

This is one time that I would root for an MJO 4-5 stronger SE Ridge vs an ice event. May be very tough to get a pure snow event Jan 20 with dueling -EPO vs MJO 4-5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bluewave said:

This is one time that I would root for an MJO 4-5 stronger SE Ridge vs an ice event. May be very tough to get a pure snow event with the Jan 20 storm with dueling -EPO vs MJO 4-5.

Oddly enough the Canadian seems to be seeing an ugly SE ridge trying to form days 8-10.  You have to wonder if the models are starting to pick up on that MJO rearing it’s head again.  The Euro has gotten somewhat stale on the cold too the last few runs 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 93-94 winter had a massive freezing rain storm in the metro with temps in the single digits, further upstate had freezing rain with temps below zero

That must be the ice storm I remember with heavy freezing rain and a temp of 3°.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That must be the ice storm I remember with heavy freezing rain and a temp of 3°.

That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I LOL Gfs is now suppressing the first wave into the MA.  You can’t make this stuff  up


 

 

It seems like there’s some winters that just want to snow, it snows in unfavorable setups, just comes out of nowhere, then there’s the ones that just find any excuse not to snow....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sferic said:

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

93-94 had everything. I was home for the early Jan storm and temps were in the low 20s with freezing rain and I remember watching them creep up a degree an hour thinking it's going to take 8 or more hours til we reach the freezing mark. Then I went back to central PA for the most incredible 2 months of snow I've ever seen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It seems like there’s some winters that just want to snow, it snows in unfavorable setups, just comes out of nowhere, then there’s the ones that just find any excuse not to snow....

The Op GFS looks out to lunch on the 17th being suppressed.  Unfortunately all the 12Z models and ensembles that are out so far now show Great Lakes low interference on that event so it may be headed into the trash bin as far as being a snow producer.  The 20th might be the only shot right now 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS looks a lot better than the OP and south of the OP run

UKMET is slower at 144hrs and about 100 miles south of GFS

 

thats a beautiful look on the GEFS

441271CC-AE81-453B-9CF0-163A8B02EF47.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

93-94 had everything. I was home for the early Jan storm and temps were in the low 20s with freezing rain and I remember watching them creep up a degree an hour thinking it's going to take 8 or more hours til we reach the freezing mark. Then I went back to central PA for the most incredible 2 months of snow I've ever seen.

Then there was a 50+ degree rainstorm that washed all that snow off the ice, clogging street drains and causing flooding. It was a horrific period, and no one was ready for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, sferic said:

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

Think this is the storm you're talking about. Trying to dig up surface obs but Plymouth State & Iowa State don't go back far enough.

010806.png.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×