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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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15 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Major ICE storm on the para 6z been show this for a few runs now...

I'd really rather rain than ice. Many people around here can't drive when it's nice out. And even with an inch or two of snow on the ground, it's insane how much people panic over. Over an inch of ice, that's a recipe for disaster on the NJ Turnpike.

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57 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Major ICE storm on the para 6z been show this for a few runs now...

Well I don't think we'll see freezing rain with single digits temperatures. 

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Major ICE storm on the para 6z been show this for a few runs now...

fv3p_asnow_neus_37.png

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Woke up to a gorgeous 1/4" layer of pixie dust on everything and it's snowing lightly, but likely to stop soon. Better go stock up on milk and bread, lol. Could get a little bit m ore later this morning. Nice to at least see a little bit. Reports of a few inches south of Philly to Toms River and up to 6" in DC so far. Time to go play soccer...

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21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I don't think we'll see freezing rain with single digits temperatures. 

Dangerous situation

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8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Woke up to a gorgeous 1/4" layer of pixie dust on everything and it's snowing lightly, but likely to stop soon. Better go stock up on milk and bread, lol. Could get a little bit m ore later this morning. Nice to at least see a little bit. Reports of a few inches south of Philly to Toms River and up to 6" in DC so far. Time to go play soccer...

The mid-Atlantic wins the first half of met winter snowfall sweepstakes with today and December 11th. We can see this during El Niño years. But this type of suppression in the past has generally been a result of too much blocking on the Atlantic side. This time it’s the fast Pacific Jet squashing the southern stream.

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Have a slight dusting in wantagh, anyone else on the island or nyc area have anything?

A nice dusting here in Brooklyn 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Have a slight dusting in wantagh, anyone else on the island or nyc area have anything?

Not a flurry here in the Bx. Snow on radar not reaching the ground. 

Actually the cloud cover is thinning out in spots.

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Have a slight dusting in wantagh, anyone else on the island or nyc area have anything?

Maybe saw one flake here in Jericho on LI

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It could be signaling that some part of the wider Northeast region has a shot at an extended icy overrunning event. Models won’t be able to pintpoint the latitude more than several days ahead of time. Battle of the cold -EPO and slight warming influence from the MJO heading at least to weak amplitude 4-5. The best we have been able to do on ice this decade was 2-2-11. Before that it was 2-14-07. But nothing so far has been able to rival Jan 94. The Jan 98 ice storm was record breaking to our north near upstate NY and Canada.

Please no ice, if we can help it. January 1994 was awesome, but I was a kid then. It’s different now.

We’ve gone through major power outages here in the past decade; the most recent was six total day’s total after the March 2, 2018 nor’easter and the 20”+ heavy wet snow of March 7, 2018. Irene and Sandy were also 10+ days combined.

Give me dry, powdery snow any day!


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14 minutes ago, dWave said:

Not a flurry here in the Bx. Snow on radar not reaching the ground. 

Actually the cloud cover is thinning out in spots.

Had some  brief very light snow here in SW Suffolk. I can see patches of blue sky to my NW now.

 

11EEFEA8-9ED1-491E-845B-0F9CFB1B79E0.jpeg.fb2d55754da7a2cbe7538295a6df2a4b.jpeg

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Woke up to a gorgeous 1/4" layer of pixie dust on everything and it's snowing lightly, but likely to stop soon. Better go stock up on milk and bread, lol. Could get a little bit m ore later this morning. Nice to at least see a little bit. Reports of a few inches south of Philly to Toms River and up to 6" in DC so far. Time to go play soccer...

Good for people in DC who want snow. We’ve had a lot recently, so if you enjoy it down there, that’s great.


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I’ve never seen a model output such as this mornings para GFS showing cold temps like this. This would be insane after a devastating ice storm 

8E7F6AD9-4ED1-4729-8151-AE852EB64076.png

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Had some  brief very light snow here in SW Suffolk. I can see patches of blue sky to my NW now.

 

11EEFEA8-9ED1-491E-845B-0F9CFB1B79E0.jpeg.fb2d55754da7a2cbe7538295a6df2a4b.jpeg

We now have bright sunshine across the Sound in southern Westchester County.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I don't think we'll see freezing rain with single digits temperatures. 

Why exactly wouldn’t you see freezing rain with single digit temps? As in you don’t think that’s physically possible or what?

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12 minutes ago, North and West said:


Good for people in DC who want snow. We’ve had a lot recently, so if you enjoy it down there, that’s great.


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They been missing storms to the north, east and south for years now. We cant get every storm. 

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10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We now have bright sunshine across the Sound in southern Westchester County.

Unusually slow start to the snowfall season through January 13th for places to our north like Boston. It’s a good thing we got that record November snowstorm.

1 2019-01-13 0.2 1
2 1928-01-13 0.5 1
3 2007-01-13 0.8 0
4 2016-01-13 1.2 0
5 2012-01-13 1.5 0
- 1936-01-13 1.5 0
7 1914-01-13 1.9 1
8 1980-01-13 2.0 1
9 1932-01-13 2.3 1
10 1891-01-13 3.0 92
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11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’ve never seen a model output such as this mornings para GFS showing cold temps like this. This would be insane after a devastating ice storm 

8E7F6AD9-4ED1-4729-8151-AE852EB64076.png

Euro is similair

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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We now have bright sunshine across the Sound in southern Westchester County.

Sun breaking out here too now. Id call it mostly cloudy still though, or "mix of clouds and sun"

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confluence associated with digging northern stream vort doing its thing with the rapid clearing and end to light snow here.

image.thumb.png.8f0a8f7c9d6e9470e3cc356622b25ac0.png

snow will expand back to the north this evening once that pushes east but should put on the brakes about 50 miles south of the city.

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why exactly wouldn’t you see freezing rain with single digit temps? As in you don’t think that’s physically possible or what?

Because that's never happened in this region and although it's physically possible, it's an extreme case particularly in this area. 

Most likely case would be a rain to arctic cold system, sleet storm, or a much warmer freezing rain event. 

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is similair

 

18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’ve never seen a model output such as this mornings para GFS showing cold temps like this. This would be insane after a devastating ice storm 

8E7F6AD9-4ED1-4729-8151-AE852EB64076.png

Believe this show temperatures anomalies rather than temperatures.  Still seriously chilly though. 

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8 minutes ago, etudiant said:

 

Believe this show temperatures anomalies rather than temperatures.  Still seriously chilly though. 

that's not the anomaly that's the actual temp - this is the anomaly

fv3p_T2ma_neus_62.png

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Sun filtered through thin high clouds here.

Freezing rain with teens and single digits happens every few years, not that rare up here. I think it was last year when I couldn't get into my car for 2 days because it was frozen shut after an episode.

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