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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Might end up happening this weekend though it’s not a great chance 

If not today then most likely next weekend if everything works out.

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's so frustrating just looking at the Nam and seeing the confluence squash this storm. :(

Without the confluence this would have destroyed everyone.  Even DCA/BWI insread of 3-5 would probably be seeing 10-15 

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23 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

This weekend's storm is a joke. Next weekend is the real story.

 Thats what this weekend was.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It's so frustrating just looking at the Nam and seeing the confluence squash this storm. :(

Yuuuuuup. If it relaxed just a little it would be a major event probably even here. Horribly timed shortwave coming down from the northern stream and drying/crushing everything to crap just like the early Dec storm which also could've been a KU with a differently timed northern stream. Not sure if VA/NC specials are counted as KU storms. 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

People in DC/Balt/DelMarVa might not want to look at this.  And not a flake north of about 195.  Kind of like the 12Z GFS.  Although the CMC, FV3, NAM, RGEM, etc., still look pretty good down in those areas.  But I'd be a little nervous...

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

I would be surprised if DCA didn’t see at least 4 and BWI 3.  I would be somewhat nervous to hedge much higher than that though 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would be surprised if DCA didn’t see at least 4 and BWI 3.  I would be somewhat nervous to hedge much higher than that though 

Yeah, it was interesting that the UK, GFS and NAM all greatly reduced snowfall in our area, with nada north of 195/276, but only the UK also squashed snowfall all the way down to DC/Balt/DelMarVa - GFS and NAM didn't go that far.  Just observations - I'm not skilled enough to know which models are more likely to be right.  

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, it was interesting that the UK, GFS and NAM all greatly reduced snowfall in our area, with nada north of 195/276, but only the UK also squashed snowfall all the way down to DC/Balt/DelMarVa - GFS and NAM didn't go that far.  Just observations - I'm not skilled enough to know which models are more likely to be right.  

The setup at 500 and 700 looked awful here for overrunning snows.  I thought perhaps somehow we would pull something off just based off the strength of the high, the fact the mid levels on many forecast soundings weren’t as dry as you’d expect, and that any WAA might kick off several hours of snow but it’s looking like it may not happen 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The setup at 500 and 700 looked awful here for overrunning snows.  I thought perhaps somehow we would pull something off just based off the strength of the high, the fact the mid levels on many forecast soundings weren’t as dry as you’d expect, and that any WAA might kick off several hours of snow but it’s looking like it may not happen 

The push down from the northern stream S/W looks to be greatest when the WAA is reaching our longitude, drying everything up and crushing the storm south. Nasty shortwave entering N NE and the Adirondacks to make that happen. Nothing but dry air roaring in on that setup. There'll be the usual northern wall of snow that makes it up to some latitude and stops and gets crushed east from there, but it seems dry air in general gets mixed into the storm and it can't really amplify and develop a massive WAA snow shield like it could with this southern stream trough because the confluence and northern stream press down is bad enough to deamplify everything. Like it'll go from flurries to a few inches over 50 miles instead of the flurries to well over a foot over 50 miles like 2/6/10 did. I'm sure parts of VA will walk away with a nice haul just like early Dec. A couple tweaks and it could've been much different just like that storm. Ridiculous. 

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro is over a foot of snow from DC to Boston for the 19th/20th.  FV3 is also epic; CMC/GFS not so much - rain.  Nice to have major potential, though...

I think that's something to watch. The bad luck part of this though might be the trough overamplifying and it hugging the coast, although looks like there would be a big high in the way to help overrunning. I think the pattern is finally switching up. This current storm would've been a beast with the few tweaks I mentioned. You can see how it already is in the Midwest, but too bad it's about to relatively shrivel up under the confluence sledgehammer. 

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Bottom line is we need a stop to the crazy Pacific Jet ASAP and a little (not too much) help from the NAO/AO to have an El Nino enhanced southern stream deliver the goods. It just takes one of these southern stream systems to obliterate us given the right setup, but have to get there first. This isn't a crazy Nino but 2002-03 wasn't either and that gave us PDII. 09-10 had some that delivered, some that didn't because of the same confluence, "Super Nino" Jan 2016 had the possibly best snowstorm in my backyard (that I missed :( ) in decades, the Feb 1983 blizzard, etc. I think if this winter amounts to much it'll be on a system (or two) like that timed right given what we've already seen so far in the storms that are targeting the Mid Atlantic. 

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Wow. The SOI loves to be negative now. That's good news. 

12 Jan 2019 1011.02 1007.65 -5.84 3.32 3.14
11 Jan 2019 1012.30 1007.20 2.31 4.19 3.51
10 Jan 2019 1011.56 1008.50 -7.30 4.56 3.75
9 Jan 2019 1011.75 1007.65 -2.40 4.94 3.94
8 Jan 2019 1012.44 1007.80 0.15 5.05 3.98
7 Jan 2019 1012.09 1008.40 -4.33 4.93 3.97
6 Jan 2019 1010.17 1007.40 -8.66 5.15 3.97
5 Jan 2019 1008.86 1008.20 -18.60 5.64 3.97
4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11
3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31
2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48
1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66
31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67
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19 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Looks to be a good sunset tonight. Always get good ones, as well as sunrises before any threatening weather.

Good to see that damn wind stopped, I always get allergies when the wind blows like that or when the humidity is really high

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The MJO has been becoming the star of the show more and more in recent years. Makes it very hard  to do a winter forecast in the fall outside of some general winter themes. 

What does it take to have a good winter or even just one big winter storm if the MJO is bad?

A very negative NAO?

 

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People in DC/Balt/DelMarVa might not want to look at this.  And not a flake north of about 195.  Kind of like the 12Z GFS.  Although the CMC, FV3, NAM, RGEM, etc., still look pretty good down in those areas.  But I'd be a little nervous...
P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif&key=606428e0706aa56f97a1e508ec8441b280e63ac454dfa7f88b6c4fb5d1604473
6z nam says what?0df398cc37c08f4a589c2296c6e14001.jpg

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I think that's something to watch. The bad luck part of this though might be the trough overamplifying and it hugging the coast, although looks like there would be a big high in the way to help overrunning. I think the pattern is finally switching up. This current storm would've been a beast with the few tweaks I mentioned. You can see how it already is in the Midwest, but too bad it's about to relatively shrivel up under the confluence sledgehammer. 

Yeah the real story with the current storm is going on in St Louis, not even Virginia or anywhere on the east coast is going to see what they're seeing out there.  The storm is weakening as it goes east.

Why cant we see a storm go west to east at our latitude? Is it because of the El Nino?  They always seem to go west to east either well south or well north of us lol.

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18 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I don't have the patience or knowledge, maybe @uncle W does, to run some scenarios based on the Hebrew calendar which is the longest running lunar calendar in use today. I'd be curious to see the results. 

Interesting thing about the Hebrew calendar is that it's based on both the sun and the moon.  Every few years they add a leap month to account for the differences and that resets the calendar back to the seasons.

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I think that's something to watch. The bad luck part of this though might be the trough overamplifying and it hugging the coast, although looks like there would be a big high in the way to help overrunning. I think the pattern is finally switching up. This current storm would've been a beast with the few tweaks I mentioned. You can see how it already is in the Midwest, but too bad it's about to relatively shrivel up under the confluence sledgehammer. 

Well this current storm was supposed to affect most of the northeast and now it's barely hitting the Mid-Atlantic states. 

Same thing could happen next weekend. There's a ton of cold air that will prevent the storm from trying to cut, but of course it depends on the PV. 

If it's further north then it'll cut further north like the Gfs shows. Luckily the Gfs has been far from accurate lately.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

What does it take to have a good winter or even just one big winter storm if the MJO is bad?

A very negative NAO?

 

A very negative nao would be great for the Mid Atlantic.  A negative epo would be nice for our area.

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Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or 1deg AN.

EURO is 15" [23" in DC] by the end of the 10 day period(19th.-21st with a temp under 20* all the way!).    GEFS is 50/50 on at least 7" by the 28th.

If the EURO takes these one run snow outbursts back for the fifth time here on the next run, I would declare it unstable and useless.  GEFS obviously is the pits too for showing something every 15 day period when we are at 0" for nearly 60 days.   That's 45 days and two runs a day.   We do not yet know about the next 15.    It is 30 degs. warmer than the EURO during the 'storm'.

21.7* here at 6am 

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