hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: DC gets over 30 inches next weekend Maybe another MLK Day special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maybe a compromise between all the guidance showing a hugger tracking close to NYC ala the GFS and GEM? I'd say a superensemble approach like that is definitely the best right right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Maybe another MLK Day special Have we had one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Have we had one? In 1994 but it mostly impacted inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Have we had one? I think Jan '14 had one but it was a moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: We could just use the 0z and 12z Euro as the lane markers with the actual low tracking right down the middle near NYC. Yes ,right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It this range the fact that we have something to track is a good sign. Anyone jumping to conclusions one way or another is out to lunch. The is how the 2010s work. Feast or famine. I hope everyone’s hungry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The crappy part about this storm is if it cuts there likely won’t even be much front end snow with it. These setups are usually miserable enough when the cut the coastal areas see nothing but rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The crappy part about this storm is if it cuts there likely won’t even be much front end snow with it. These setups are usually miserable enough when the cut the coastal areas see nothing but rain Lets just worry about a storm first then worry about track after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The crappy part about this storm is if it cuts there likely won’t even be much front end snow with it. These setups are usually miserable enough when the cut the coastal areas see nothing but rain I'd almost rather have that-something worse than seeing 4 inches of fresh snow washed away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: right then stop making a big deal out of them and defending the models showing them after 5 days...….. He does this every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 At least it feels like mid-January outside. 24/2F, down from a high of 28, with a few hours of CAA left. The HRRR tries to decouple me in the pre-dawn hours, so if that happens I could see my first single-digit low since November 23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Sunday Nam has several inches of snow for SNJ and 6+ for DC and Baltimore Looks like this might be turning out to be a nice snow event for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z EPS came in warmer for the storm around the 20th than 0z. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2019011112&fh=192 Mixed solutions on the indies. The placement is good this far out since the majority of storms so far this winter have trended south due to the pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: In 1994 but it mostly impacted inland areas A terrific storm, one of my favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Forget about DC and 30" (actually 1 member has 19', and check out e14 for Dallas 39" 'e' must signify 'error'!! I do not follow these charts for other cities often, so maybe for Dallas this is an on par, hodge podge type output. But I did notice a tendency toward northerly cutoff for the next 15 as Boston does not do well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: In 1994 but it mostly impacted inland areas It was a wicked ice storm through much of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I'd almost rather have that-something worse than seeing 4 inches of fresh snow washed away.... Bannable post, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: But the EPS is making a move toward MJO 4-5 which put the ridge in play near the East Coast. That could work against us with the EPO finally going negative. How would it work against us if the epo is going negative ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Gfs has 2 waves for next weekend which the other models also show but not like the gfs. First wave is warm but the 2nd wave is snow along a front. Gfs continues with an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Having a southeast ridge will not hurt if we so get a negative nao or negative epo. We could have used it this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It essentially creates an RPNA with rigging near AK and EC and a trough over the GL. The cold only comes by after the storm is past. Yeah the only way we overcome that is to have an overwhelming EPO to counter the WAR like we have had in some recent years. I'd love to see it since that's how we get those exceptionally cold snowstorms and deep winter here. But I don't see anything like that modeled here. MJO is killing any semblance of forecast certainty this year. I wish it would just retreat to the COD and stay there.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yeah the only way we overcome that is to have an overwhelming EPO to counter the WAR like we have had in some recent years. I'd love to see it since that's how we get those exceptionally cold snowstorms and deep winter here. But I don't see anything like that modeled here. MJO is killing any semblance of forecast certainty this year. I wish it would just retreat to the COD and stay there.... It will not be a bad thing if it stays in the COD which might happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yeah the only way we overcome that is to have an overwhelming EPO to counter the WAR like we have had in some recent years. I'd love to see it since that's how we get those exceptionally cold snowstorms and deep winter here. But I don't see anything like that modeled here. MJO is killing any semblance of forecast certainty this year. I wish it would just retreat to the COD and stay there.... The MJO has been becoming the star of the show more and more in recent years. Makes it very hard to do a winter forecast in the fall outside of some general winter themes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It will not be a bad thing if it stays in the COD which might happen . simple man checking in here---> ? = COD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 On January 8, the MJO was in Phase 8 at a high amplitude, the SOI was slightly positive, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative. That is a rare combination for January during El Niño winters. The last time it occurred during such a winter was January 17, 2003 as a significant pattern change was in its early stages of evolution. The following 30-day period was very snowy in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City picked up 28.6" snow with the highlight of that period being a blockbuster President's Day snowstorm on February 15-17. The general ideas on the road to the pattern change have worked out quite well so far. The SOI went negative and has been predominantly negative. The AO went negative. The first week of January was much warmer than normal with no snowfall. The second week of January is on course to be materially colder than the first week of the month. A storm will bring some snow mainly to parts of the Middle Atlantic region later tomorrow and Sunday. The SOI was +2.31 today. It has been negative for 10 out of the last 12 days. The AO was -2.166. That is the lowest AO value since it was -3.072 on November 27, 2018 and is the 6th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter has now gone slightly negative to -0.017. On January 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.607 (RMM). That amplitude was below the January 9-adjusted figure of 2.057. Considerable uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Both the GEFS and EPS forecast the MJO to move to low amplitude values through Phase 8. Both the EPS and Canadian ensembles bring it to Phase 5 with an amplitude of 1.000 or above. For now, with the MJO only slowly losing amplitude and the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude. It would then move into Phase 1 and probably into a low amplitude shortly afterward. As that happens, the AO could briefly approach or reach positive values before it returns to mainly negative values. The prospects for snowfall in and around the New York City area will likely remain above climatology for at least the next two weeks, if not longer given the expected evolution of the teleconnections. A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination. During the January 12-13 period, Baltimore and Washington, DC remain in line to receive their biggest snowfall so far this season. This winter's biggest snowfall so far at both locations occurred during the November 15-16, 2018 snowstorm. That storm's accumulations were: Baltimore: 1.7" Washington, DC: 1.4" The potential exists for 3"-6" in Washington, DC and possibly Baltimore. 2"-4" with locally higher amounts appears likely across southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Lesser amounts appear likely north of there, especially from central New Jersey northward across New York City and Long Island. Central Park could pick up a small accumulation of snow. This would be the Washington and Baltimore area's biggest snowstorm since March 20-22, 2018. Another storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall. The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, 2nd lowest such figure since winter 1999-00 when no measurable snow had fallen through January 11). Finally, the current El Niño event, which had been basinwide for through December may have begun to evolve toward a central Pacific-based event. During the week centered around January 2, the ENSO Region 1+2 weekly anomaly fell sharply from +0.8°C during the preceding week to +0.2°. Additional data will be needed to confirm such an evolution. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Current temp down to 26 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 NYC needs any measurable snow it can get to end one of the longest streaks without measurable snow within a season. Today is day 57 and 7th longest on record. That’s days between snow events in a single season. 154 83 2011-10-30 through 2012-01-20 155 67 1889-12-15 through 1890-02-19 156 65 1983-02-13 through 1983-04-18 157 62 1998-01-19 through 1998-03-21 158 60 1953-11-07 through 1954-01-05 159 57 2007-12-17 through 2008-02-11 160 56 2018-11-16 through 2019-01-10 161 55 1888-11-26 through 1889-01-19 162 53 1949-12-09 through 1950-01-30 163 50 1968-01-10 through 1968-02-28 - 50 1954-02-09 through 1954-03-30 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC needs any measurable snow it can get to end one of the longest streaks without measurable snow within a season. Today is day 57 and 7th longest on record. 154 83 2011-10-30 through 2012-01-20 155 67 1889-12-15 through 1890-02-19 156 65 1983-02-13 through 1983-04-18 157 62 1998-01-19 through 1998-03-21 158 60 1953-11-07 through 1954-01-05 159 57 2007-12-17 through 2008-02-11 160 56 2018-11-16 through 2019-01-10 161 55 1888-11-26 through 1889-01-19 162 53 1949-12-09 through 1950-01-30 163 50 1968-01-10 through 1968-02-28 - 50 1954-02-09 through 1954-03-30 I shouldn't have put gas in that new snowblower. I could have returned it. The old one works fine ( it's just too heavy ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC needs any measurable snow it can get to end one of the longest streaks without measurable snow within a season. Today is day 57 and 7th longest on record. That’s days between snow events in a single season. 154 83 2011-10-30 through 2012-01-20 155 67 1889-12-15 through 1890-02-19 156 65 1983-02-13 through 1983-04-18 157 62 1998-01-19 through 1998-03-21 158 60 1953-11-07 through 1954-01-05 159 57 2007-12-17 through 2008-02-11 160 56 2018-11-16 through 2019-01-10 161 55 1888-11-26 through 1889-01-19 162 53 1949-12-09 through 1950-01-30 163 50 1968-01-10 through 1968-02-28 - 50 1954-02-09 through 1954-03-30 Might end up happening this weekend though it’s not a great chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now