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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Heard it from who?

All the forecast I have seen had the 2nd half being colder and here we are.

Pattern has changed

LOL-really dude?   Sure it will be colder, that's not much of a stretch after a warm dec and 1st 10 days of Jan that averaged +7.   That's kind of like saying the 2nd half will be snowier than the first half of winter....

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53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Social media is part of the problem too-people post ridiculous maps that have no chance of verifying and the hype machine in general gets worse every year.   Years like 93-94, 95-96, 14-15 are thrown out way too often as analogs...

I completely agree with you regarding analog years.  Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people.  Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. 

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I completely agree with you regarding analog years.  Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people.  Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. 

A few people like HM were posting often in the fall that the stratosphere argued strongly against anything like 02-03 or 09-10 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

A few people like HM were posting often in the fall that the stratosphere argued strongly against anything like 02-03 or 09-10 

I saw several forecasts which included those years as analog years. I think the vast majority of people(non mets) who come up with their own winter forecasts are ones who love snow/cold. And I think their bias towards cold and snow influences their  forecasts.  The majority of seasonal forecasts that are posted within the various forums here and elsewhere online are winter forecasts. There are not many spring/summer/fall forecasts posted. 

The same happens when untrained weather hobbyists  look at model runs. Some find a snowstorm hit in every run. 

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I saw several forecasts which included those years as analog years. I think the vast majority of people(non mets) who come up with their own winter forecasts are ones who love snow/cold. And I think their bias towards cold and snow influences their  forecasts.  The majority of seasonal forecasts that are posted within the various forums here and elsewhere online are winter forecasts. There are not many spring/summer/fall forecasts posted. 

The same happens when untrained mets look at model runs. Some find a snowstorm hit in every run. 

I feel like its been closer to 94-95 with the warmth and rain minus the early season snowstorm. Maybe we'll get one good hit like the early feb storm that year. Central Park had .2" going into Feb and ended with 11.8. Nearly all of it in the one storm

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will still be a less impressive cool down for NYC than the one in November. The November coldest minimum was 15 and the low max was 28 degrees. NYC is already 27 degrees without any lows near 15 for the remainder of this cool down.

I think some real arctic air comes down into our area after 20th-22nd threat.

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  1. UK is a bit snowier for Sunday (first time in awhile it's shown any snow N or 78, if I recall correctly) as are some other models - not saying we're going to get hammered, but I'm thinking an inch is in range for my area (Edison, where 0.5-1.0" seems to be the 12Z consensus), which is way better than cirrus.  The RPDS is even more bullish, while the NAM and GFS show ~1/2" for the Edison area - and the Euro is somewhere between 0.5-1.0", which is an improvement from yesterday.  

PA_000-072_0000.gif

 

PR_000-072_0000.gif

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26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

those years were also in the heart of the warm AMO with a warm north atlantic that would enhance blocking....

Great post. +AMO not only favors NATL blocking (-NAO), it also strongly favors more KU events. I don’t think the recent streak of +NAO winters since we’ve begun going into a -AMO is any coincidence. As we get deeper into the long term -AMO cycle, I’m willing to bet that we see a real big drop in the number of KU’s and majority +NAO winters coming up in the next decade 

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

yup, going to be big. hope the EPS makes the same changes.

now its just a matter of fiquring out whats going to go wrong...……..this how we get fooled shows it at 9 days then come early next week things change...

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I completely agree with you regarding analog years.  Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people.  Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. 

Having lived through the many winters of the 70s and 80s and early 90s I can assure you that there was no bias towards colder weather.  You do know that there was a period of 20 years back then where there were only 4 KU events in the region.  Average annual snowfalls were much less than they are now.

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55 minutes ago, RU848789 said:
  1. UK is a bit snowier for Sunday (first time in awhile it's shown any snow N or 78, if I recall correctly) as are some other models - not saying we're going to get hammered, but I'm thinking an inch is in range for my area (Edison, where 0.5-1.0" seems to be the 12Z consensus), which is way better than cirrus.  The RPDS is even more bullish, while the NAM and GFS show ~1/2" for the Edison area - and the Euro is somewhere between 0.5-1.0", which is an improvement from yesterday.  

PA_000-072_0000.gif

 

PR_000-072_0000.gif

The soundings on many of the models I’ve looked at aren’t horrifyingly dry.  The Euro does get precip as far north as NYC.  It’s not impossible if we get a 30-40 mile adjustment north some people might at least be able to say their shutout is over 

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