bluewave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I want to say 2-14-16 was the only case of NYC going below 0 in an El Niño winter. I seem to remember hearing that at the time A first for such a strong El Niño. But we did it in 1977 with a weak El Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 According to Staten Island's Mesonet site at CSI, 2-m temperature bottomed out at 1.6° in the 7AM hour. It has since warmed up to 6°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is only the 4th time since 1970 that NYC reached 2 degrees or lower this late in the season. Interesting that 3 out of the 4 times were since 2015. From January 31 on 1-31-19....2 2-14-16....-1 2-20-15......2 2-18-79......0 That low of -1 on VD 2016 was amazing and the only time it's happened in February (and mid February at that!) since the 1960s. Can you do a little comparison of what the surrounding airports did on VD 2019 vs what happened this morning? I dont think JFK or LGA went below 0 with that outbreak (I think EWR did), so this one may have matched that one for our local airports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is only the 4th time since 1970 that NYC reached 2 degrees or lower this late in the season. Interesting that 3 out of the 4 times were since 2015. From January 31 on 1-31-19....2 2-14-16....-1 2-20-15......2 2-18-79......0 2015 was so extreme we almost got down to single digits in early March- I wonder when the last time that happened was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 i got down to 2. So did FRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Had a goose egg here. Wind chill was -21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 All in all we ended up with a very average January temperature and precip wise unfortunately most of us couldn't cash in in the snowfall department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 This is the warmest NYC January since 1869 to reach 2 degrees or lower. 2019....2.....32.5 2004...1......24.7 1994...-2.....25.5 1985...-2.....28.8 1982....0.....26.1 1981...2......26.2 1977..-2.....22.0 1976...-1....27.3 1968....-1....26.7 1957....0....28.5 1948....0....25.4 1945...2.....25.2 1936..-3.....29.3 1935...-1....28.8 1927...-1....30.9 1925...-2....28.4 1920....-1...23.4 1918....-4...21.7 1914....-5...31.5 1912....-3...23.7 1904...-4.....25.3 1896....-2....30.0 1893...1......23.7 1888....0.....23.2 1883....1.....23.7 1882....-6....28.3 1881....1....24.6 1879...-4...26.0 1875...-3...23.8 1873...-1...27.3 1871....0...27.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Low here was +3. Could have been a little colder but we're still sucking heat out of the Sound. Our below zero days in recent years have been in mid and late February. Yesterdays squall began with a few flakes at 4:28 and peaked in white out conditions from 4:44 - 4:47. it calmed down pretty quickly after that. Here is the event condensed down to about a minute (regular speed, just clipped): 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Current temp is 14 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Interesting little fact about today - it seems all 6 official climate sites tied/set records for the lowest maximum temperature: Central Park - Previous Record 16°F; Observed 16°F LGA - Previous Record 21°F; Observed 17°F JFK - Previous Record 23°F; Observed 17°F ISP - Previous Record 23°F; Observed 17°F BDR - Previous Record 24°F; Observed 18°F EWR - Previous Record 17°F; Observed 17°F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 This morning, the temperature fell to -31° in Rockford, Illinois. That set a new all-time record low temperature for that location. The prior record was -27°, which was set on January 10, 1982. Aided by today's 2° minimum temperature, New York City finished January with a monthly mean temperature of 32.5°. That is 0.1° below normal. The SOI was +0.01 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, the SOI could continue to retain positive values, as is currently the case. Afterward, it will likely return to negative values. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.286. That was the lowest figure since November 27, 2018 when the AO was -3.072. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.263. On January 30, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.459 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen from the January 29-adjusted figure of 1.577. The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within day or two. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of a turn toward Phase 6 or a drop to low amplitude prior to any move to Phase 8 have continued to increase. Both Phase 6 and a Phase 7 at low amplitude favor a positive AO. As the dynamic models have shifted toward an increased likelihood of either outcome, the ensemble guidance has shifted toward at least a period where the AO goes positive. Such a turn would fit with the upcoming warmup that is forecast. Strong blocking could have blunted its magnitude, but now the guidance has shifted toward a less blocky outlook for perhaps a week. The operational ECMWF, GFS, and EPS forecast high temperatures in the 50s to perhaps 60° during the February 3-6 period in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Farther south, parts of the Middle Atlantic region could experience a high temperatures in the 60s. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. There is a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 NYC average temperature for January 2019 was 32.5...the 2010's decade averaged 32.8...since 1990 the average is 33.6...1960 to 1989 averaged 31.2...the long term average is 32.0 since 1870...the 2019 January max min was 59 and 2...the average max since 1990 is 60.3...the long term is 57.2...the average minimum is 8.0 since 1870 and 9.9 since 1990....precipitation was 3.58" in 2019...the average since 1870 is 3.45"...3.75" since 1990...snowfall averaged 12.7" for the 2010's...only 1.1" in 2019...the average since 1870 is 7.8"...8.7" since 1990... January NYC climate stats from Central Park...since 1870... Decade averages... decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation 1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.........................68...-4......9.6"......3.29" 1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7......53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12" 1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46" 1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3......55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1"......3.07" 1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1.....6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77" 1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4......53.9.....4.6...62...-2......8.9"......3.52" 1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9......59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4"......3.98" 1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20" 1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7...10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75" 1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4.....8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37" 1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57" 1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26" 1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2......6.1"......4.47" 2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8.....9.8...72....1......7.2"......3.19" 2010's...32.8...38.0...28.6......59.2.....8.7...66....2....12.9"......3.60".....2010-2019... 1870- 2019.....32.0...43.2...21.7…..57.2.....8.0...72...-6......7.8"......3.45" 1990- 2019.....33.6...41.4...24.7......60.3.....9.9...72...-2......8.8"......3.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This morning, the temperature fell to -31° in Rockford, Illinois. That set a new all-time record low temperature for that location. The prior record was -27°, which was set on January 10, 1982. Aided by today's 2° minimum temperature, New York City finished January with a monthly mean temperature of 32.5°. That is 0.1° below normal. The SOI was +0.01 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, the SOI could continue to retain positive values, as is currently the case. Afterward, it will likely return to negative values. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.286. That was the lowest figure since November 27, 2018 when the AO was -3.072. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.263. On January 30, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.459 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen from the January 29-adjusted figure of 1.577. The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within day or two. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of a turn toward Phase 6 or a drop to low amplitude prior to any move to Phase 8 have continued to increase. Both Phase 6 and a Phase 7 at low amplitude favor a positive AO. As the dynamic models have shifted toward an increased likelihood of either outcome, the ensemble guidance has shifted toward at least a period where the AO goes positive. Such a turn would fit with the upcoming warmup that is forecast. Strong blocking could have blunted its magnitude, but now the guidance has shifted toward a less blocky outlook for perhaps a week. The operational ECMWF, GFS, and EPS forecast high temperatures in the 50s to perhaps 60° during the February 3-6 period in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Farther south, parts of the Middle Atlantic region could experience a high temperatures in the 60s. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. There is a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop. everytime you post something, it sounds like your guessing lol. Like when you thought the SOI would drop to -10 a few days ago, and severe blocking would develop. Anyway.....I am optimistic that your optimism will finally pay off post Feb 10. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 degrees after a high of 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 48 minutes ago, Ji said: everytime you post something, it sounds like your guessing lol. Like when you thought the SOI would drop to -10 a few days ago, and severe blocking would develop. Anyway.....I am optimistic that your optimism will finally pay off post Feb 10. The models had been much more aggressive with the forecast WWB. It’s now clear that on account of marginal El Niño conditions, such guidance needs to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 SI's Mesonet site reporting 12°F, feels balmy now that the winds have died down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: everytime you post something, it sounds like your guessing lol. Like when you thought the SOI would drop to -10 a few days ago, and severe blocking would develop. Anyway.....I am optimistic that your optimism will finally pay off post Feb 10. Funny, I read them as well grounded evaluations of the current situation. Particularly appreciated is that these are much more sober than those provided by some of the more opinionated/enthusiastic forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, etudiant said: Funny, I read them as well grounded evaluations of the current situation. Particularly appreciated is that these are much more sober than those provided by some of the more opinionated/enthusiastic forecasters. Agreed, it is evident that Don has a strong grasp of statistics & probability. The probability may be accounting for what some may see as "guessing" but I see it as pure mathematics. It's impossible for medium/long-range weather forecasts to be deterministic. Don is one of the best & most cautious posters, and his posts come come off as the farthest thing from a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 47 minutes ago, etudiant said: Funny, I read them as well grounded evaluations of the current situation. Particularly appreciated is that these are much more sober than those provided by some of the more opinionated/enthusiastic forecasters. Regarding Mr Sutherland, I agree with you wholeheartedly. I always like to consider the source and in this case if the source is who I think it is from way back.... well enough said. As always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Jan. ended at -0.1[32.5]. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 January finishes slightly above normal here with a mean of 31.9F (+1.3F). Avg Hi/Lo: 39.9F / 23.9F Highest temperature was 60F on the 1st, lowest temperature was 3F on the 31st. Precipitation was above normal at 4.28” (+0.67”). Snowfall was below normal with 0.6” (-6.9”). *Normals from ISP and data from my PWS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 17 hours ago, etudiant said: Funny, I read them as well grounded evaluations of the current situation. Particularly appreciated is that these are much more sober than those provided by some of the more opinionated/enthusiastic forecasters. No worries. Ji is just having some fun. Speaking of fun, he's also enjoying today's snowfall down in VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 19 hours ago, Mark McIntyre said: Agreed, it is evident that Don has a strong grasp of statistics & probability. The probability may be accounting for what some may see as "guessing" but I see it as pure mathematics. It's impossible for medium/long-range weather forecasts to be deterministic. Don is one of the best & most cautious posters, and his posts come come off as the farthest thing from a weenie. Well said. Too many people don't understand that these medium/long-range pattern forecasts are largely probabilistic, as deterministic forecasts are useless beyond about 7-8 days, due to the chaotic nature of weather. So, there will always be a decent level of uncertainty in pattern forecasts and Don conveys that well, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 11:49 AM, bluewave said: This is the warmest NYC January since 1869 to reach 2 degrees or lower. 2019....2.....32.5 2004...1......24.7 1994...-2.....25.5 1985...-2.....28.8 1982....0.....26.1 1981...2......26.2 1977..-2.....22.0 1976...-1....27.3 1968....-1....26.7 1957....0....28.5 1948....0....25.4 1945...2.....25.2 1936..-3.....29.3 1935...-1....28.8 1927...-1....30.9 1925...-2....28.4 1920....-1...23.4 1918....-4...21.7 1914....-5...31.5 1912....-3...23.7 1904...-4.....25.3 1896....-2....30.0 1893...1......23.7 1888....0.....23.2 1883....1.....23.7 1882....-6....28.3 1881....1....24.6 1879...-4...26.0 1875...-3...23.8 1873...-1...27.3 1871....0...27.7 wow none of them even reached 32 and only one other one was above 31- Jan 1914 interesting that winter keeps popping up- it ended strongly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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