bluewave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: This year was basically a La Nina given the positive SOI most of the winter. Only few days of negative where we had more of an El Nino look and that produced the couple of snow storms in the mid Atlantic and southeast It was the hybrid nature of the pattern that was noteworthy. The pattern was essentially an overlapping El Niño and La Niña pattern. Notice the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii along with stronger PAC Jet. More of an El Niño +PNA in Canada. It may have been the inteference between the two patterns that caused such low Dec-Jan snowfall here. We missed a few good snowstorms due to the northern stream suppressing the weaker southern stream. We could have a had a better shot at snow if one of those features was able to dominate. Also notice that there was actually decent blocking in the North Atlantic. But there is only so much we can do with such a poor Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 After all that...a normal January temp wise. Haha. Would have thought the world was ending if you read through this monthly thread. Perspective! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: It was the hybrid nature of the pattern that was noteworthy. The pattern was essentially an overlapping El Niño and La Niña pattern. Notice the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii along with stronger PAC Jet. More of an El Niño +PNA in Canada. It may have been the inteference between the two patterns that caused such low Dec-Jan snowfall here. We missed a few good snowstorms due to the northern stream suppressing the weaker southern stream. We could have a had a better shot at snow if one of those features was able to dominate. Also notice that there was actually decent blocking in the North Atlantic. But there is only so much we can do with such a poor Pacific. I blame the SSW as I stated on here back in November. It's playing with fire look at the PV split to Eastern Europe and NW Alaska. I believe that got the ball rolling with the strong MJO in unfavorable phases and the roaring pac jet configuration. No SSW or one that split the PV to different areas of the globe, different winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, jfklganyc said: After all that...a normal January temp wise. Haha. Would have thought the world was ending if you read through this monthly thread. Perspective! Not many "normal" days but averaged all together it becomes... average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 hours ago, NittanyWx said: And for the record, every single meteorologist is going to have misses in a winter. I personally had a terrible November. But I do think this winter had way too many people hashing out ideas that they couldn't fully explain or only had a half understanding of. And I noticed the always cold/snow crowd again got run over because of this (JB, DiMartino, etc.). Think the next couple of weeks turn stormy, but the window for an east coast system that can deliver meaningful snow is fairly tight. Some things working for the east coast are a decent supply of cold air in Canada and an active storm track. Think you can squeeze something out of it if we can get a true phase 8 in Feb with some +PNA help. But, P1 Feb can actually be hostile on the PNA for us and make inland runners more likely. The window is fairly tight, and perhaps something will happen, but the reality is an overweight woman is warming up her vocal chords. A few people will insist that we have 6 weeks of opportunity for some snow, and that is true, but it might also be wet and cold or sunny and brisk. Overall a disappointing winter for snow weenies to date, but we get these kinds of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not many "normal" days but averaged all together it becomes... average The big story is how mild this January will finish with Arctic cold below 5 in NYC.This will be the warmest with the least snow since 1980. NYC Year......Jan low....Jan avg......Jan snowfall 2019..........4.........33.7......+1.3.....0.7” 2014..........4.........28.6.......-4.0......19.7” 2004...........1.........24.7.......-7.9......17.3” 2000..........3.........31.3........-1.5.......9.5” 1997..........4.........32.1........-0.5.......4.4” 1994..........-2........25.5.........-7.1......12.0” 1985..........-2........28.8.........-3.1......8.4” 1982...........0........26.1.........-6.5.....11.8” 1981..........2.........26.2..........-6.4.....8.0” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 One of the most boring January's in quite some time. Even the clunkers of 01-02 and 11-12 had snow in January... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 The snow showers today will be the highlight of January and the winter (minus nov) thus far for NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The big story is how mild this January will finish for such strong Arctic outbreaks to drop NYC below 5. This will be the warmest and least snow since 1980. NYC Year......Jan low....Jan avg......Jan snowfall 2019..........4.........33.8......+1.4......0.7” 2014..........4.........28.6.......-4.0......19.7” 2004...........1.........24.7.......-7.9......17.3” 2000..........3.........31.3........-1.5.......9.5” 1997..........4.........32.1........-0.5.......4.4” 1994..........-2........25.5.........-7.1......12.0” 1985..........-2........28.8.........-3.1......8.4” 1982...........0........26.1.........-6.5.....11.8” 1981..........2.........26.2..........-6.4.....8.0” A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month. Yeah, it looks like NYC won’t be too far from the current 32.6 average. The odd part is the previous 15 years since 1950 with a monthly January low under 5 degrees averaged 27.4 degrees. The only other year to even reach freezing was 1997 at 32.1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month. Some places... If I put the last storm down as the ~4" before the change to freezing rain then I'm at about 4.5" for the month. That doesn't speak to how difficult the conditions have been for a good number of days though and will be today and tomorrow. Hopefully I can pull a few inches this afternoon but I don't think there's even a remote chance to get to 10" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month. After yesterdays snow I'm slightly above normal for snowfall. 25.6" on the season with average of 23.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Some places... If I put the last storm down as the ~4" before the change to freezing rain then I'm at about 4.5" for the month. That doesn't speak to how difficult the conditions have been for a good number of days though and will be today and tomorrow. Hopefully I can pull a few inches this afternoon but I don't think there's even a remote chance to get to 10" for the month. I only received 2.6 inches from this last debacle and am now at 7.9 for the month, definitely below normal snowfall wise for January. Some towns in NW Orange County only 20 miles from me received 6-8 from yesterdays storm, with one report of 10, not sure I'm buying that one. It's just how this winter rolls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Ripping at Buffalo's airport. 1/4mi vis at 1° 850s under -20° wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I only received 2.6 inches from this last debacle and am now at 7.9 for the month, definitely below normal snowfall wise for January. Some towns in NW Orange County only 20 miles from me received 6-8 from yesterdays storm, with one report of 10, not sure I'm buying that one. It's just how this winter rolls. This is the first January since 2013 that the Scranton, PA area beat Islip for snowfall. 2019.....AVP....10.6....ISP.....0.7 2018...............10.3...............22.0 2017................3.9................14.0 2016................4.5................24.8 2015................15.2..............30.2 2014................13.0...............25.2 2013.................5.9................3.3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This is the first January since 2013 that the Scranton, PA area beat Islip for snowfall. 2019.....AVP....10.6....ISP.....0.7 2018...............10.3...............22.0 2017................3.9................14.0 2016................4.5................24.8 2015................15.2..............30.2 2014................13.0...............25.2 2013.................5.9................3.3 Wow, it wasn't even close either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: One of the most boring January's in quite some time. Even the clunkers of 01-02 and 11-12 had snow in January... Are there any other years where NYC went from mid November into early February with an inch or under of snow? I honestly can’t find one. Today definitely isn’t promising on the HRRR, NAM or RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: Are there any other years where NYC went from mid November into early February with an inch or under of snow? I honestly can’t find one. Today definitely isn’t promising on the HRRR, NAM or RGEM 97-98 had .5" until March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Ripping at Buffalo's airport. 1/4mi vis at 1° 850s under -20° wow. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Are there any other years where NYC went from mid November into early February with an inch or under of snow? I honestly can’t find one 1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January 1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November 1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare 1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare. We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January 1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November 1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare 1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare. We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November Thank you. Yea, this winter going into February, definitely ranks right up there with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 for NYC’s worst in the last 25 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thank you. Yea, this winter going into February, definitely ranks right up there with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 for NYC’s worst in the last 25 years This year, my neighborhood streets would have out performed those winters just on salt depth alone. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, rclab said: This year, my neighborhood streets would have out performed those winters just on salt depth alone. As always .... In my hood the trucks were out last night plowing the rainwater. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, snowheavyattimes said: In my hood the trucks were out last night plowing the rainwater. Lol I was on the Merritt pwky last night and there were trucks dropping salt with temps at 39 degrees with moderate rains....great use of tax payer funds! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January 1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November 1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare 1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare. We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November By this time next week 1994/1995 will be ahead of us with snowfall (that storm gave me a foot). That's crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Seeing Snow Squall Warnings in MD is this a new product or just rarely used? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, stockmanjr said: Seeing Snow Squall Warnings in MD is this a new product or just rarely used? Yes it is new as of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Yes it is new as of this winter It's a good product but kind of useless with minimal lead time. Not saying we're guaranteed a squall but local outlets said " an isolated snowshower". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Amazing update from Buffalo... would be amazing to be there! S+ 0° 0.06mi vis Gusting to 35 with a -23° windchill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Amazing update from Buffalo... would be amazing to be there! S+ 0° 0.06mi vis Gusting to 35 with a -23° windchill. Just brutal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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