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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Its going to feel tremendous after these next few days

Single digits and then 50 or higher within about 5 days has been the MO in recent years. Just goes to show what an outlier February 2015 was without any warm ups.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It was one of those after midnight highs today.


TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         38   1231 AM  66    1916  39     -1       55
  MINIMUM         25    942 AM  -2    1925  27     -2       46
  AVERAGE         32                        33     -1       51

The high here today was 38 at midnight.  The maximum temperature during the daylight hours was 29.  It is currently 26 (6:30PM)

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It’s great to finally see ESRL back. They have updated through December. You can see the unfavorable MJO forcing from the Western Pacific back to the Maritime Continent . Also note the Jet anomalies were more significant with the PAC Jet than the STJ. The Atlantic side really wasn’t so bad. There was some blocking extending back to Greenland. So there is only so much that you can do with such an unfavorable Pacific. That ridge north of Hawaii and faster PAC Jet had more of a La Niña flavor. While the ridge over Canada was more El Niño. You can see how the STJ got suppressed with the 12/11 snowstorm to our south.

16522B36-9F43-443F-B63B-AA50B9E76363.png.61fb76088ebabd8258043d3156b8444f.png

255D1045-97B2-40DF-9463-8955D36218D5.png.7f9c34c00b4aebd0a471ad63cb0ba752.png

4DFF3E94-FF47-41CF-88AB-6836C9E1D0BC.png.c7739469c9ea1add8f4b89116a257446.png

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Extreme cold will push into the Midwest and then spread into the Northeast tomorrow and Wednesday. Readings in Chicago could fall to their lowest level in 25 years and possibly even challenge that city's all-time minimum temperature record (12z GFS MOS). Some highlights:

MOS0128201912z.jpg

Single-digit temperatures are likely in the big cities of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, including Boston, Baltimore, New York, and Washington, DC.

The SOI was +2.55 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, some fluctuations to positive SOI values are possible, as is currently the case. The SOI could still reach -10.00 in coming days, but that outcome now appears unlikely to occur until the MJO has moved into Phase 7.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.435. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.189.

On January 27, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.935 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the January 26-adjusted figure of 1.901.

The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 3-6 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of either outcome remain relatively balanced according to both the latest guidance and the historical data.

Regardless, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude into at least the first week of February. For the month as a whole, the MJO will likely be at a high amplitude (1.000 or above) for a considerable part of February.

Since 1974, there have been 15 January cases that saw the MJO's amplitude average 1.500-2.000 during January (as is the case through January 27). 87% of those cases saw 15 or more days with a high amplitude MJO; 54% of those cases saw 20 or more days when the MJO had an amplitude of 1.000 or above; and, 40% of those cases had 25 or more days when the MJO was at an amplitude of 1.000 or above. Given this historic data and the low verification scores of extended range MJO forecasting, the base case is for a majority of days to see the MJO at high amplitude in February. Guidance showing prolonged periods of low amplitude values should be treated with a measure of skepticism.

The passage of an Arctic cold front could bring some precipitation from tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday to the region. A small accumulation is possible with most areas picking up a coating to 1" snow. Northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and New York City's northern and western suburbs have the potential to pick up a few inches.

Ahead of this small snowfall, Boston's ongoing snow drought continues. Through 8 pm today, Boston had received just 1.8" snow for the season to date. Without any additional snow for the remainder of the day, winter 2018-19 would tie winter 2006-07 for the least snowfall through January 28.

Following the shot of extreme cold, a period of moderation appears likely during the middle of the first week of February. The operational ECMWF and EPS are particularly aggressive with the warming. Should strong blocking develop near the beginning of the month, that blocking could blunt the extent of the warming. Colder air should follow by the end of that week.

Finally, the weekly ENSO Region anomalies centered around January 23 were released. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.2°C. The ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C. Based on this latest data, the base case for February is ENSO Region conditions varying from warm-neutral to very weak El Niño conditions.

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

tonight's forecast: 1/2 inch of salt

It's been ridiculous with the salt since the November debacle. There was so much salt used during the last "potential" storm (turned out to be all rain) that it created salt dust clouds. 

I relish in the fact that the only snow event resulted in a state wide disaster, and that's the only thing people will remember.

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been ridiculous with the salt since the November debacle. There was so much salt used during the last "potential" storm (turned out to be all rain) that it created salt dust clouds. 

I relish in the fact that the only snow event resulted in a state wide disaster, and that's the only thing people will remember.

287 was covered really heavily.  Clouds of dust like you mentioned, and of course people spraying their windshields with me behind them.

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29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been ridiculous with the salt since the November debacle. There was so much salt used during the last "potential" storm (turned out to be all rain) that it created salt dust clouds. 

I relish in the fact that the only snow event resulted in a state wide disaster, and that's the only thing people will remember.

We had a statewide disaster two weekends ago remember? People were clearing out the bread and milk. Never saw a flake or frozen drop 

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17 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

12/7 here. Cloudcover is taking a little longer than expected to overspread the area, so we have more time to cool off.

Agree.

copy of a section of Uptons AFD

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance.

Main updates were to increase cloud cover sooner based on latest
satellite trends and to slow onset of precipitation ahead of the
700-500 hPa shortwave that will be in the vicinity of the
western Great Lakes by 12Z Tuesday. It is appearing less likely
there will be any precipitation overnight, especially over the
eastern 2/3 of the CWA.

Lows tonight will be in the upper teens well inland to the 20s
elsewhere. These values should be near to slightly above normal.
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5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

14.2° right now.

I'm sure it will go up some tonight once the clouds roll in but I don't see how we get any mix up here tomorrow, BL seems fine and I doubt we crack 30°. The weather channel app is on crack, high of 36°, not happening.

Agree, we'll see if they make adjustments to our area forecast tomorrow morning.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I wouldn't be shocked if tomorrows storm busts a bit cold, temps getting colder tonight than expected, weak storm with out a strong warm push aloft. I'm not saying a snow event for the city but I could see at least some more white rain/mix than currently modeled.  

I wouldn't be surprised by mainly white rain. Anything appreciable I'd be surprised. I guarantee an inch or two of salt regardless. 

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I wouldn't be surprised by mainly white rain. Anything appreciable I'd be surprised. I guarantee an inch or two of salt regardless. 

You call for white rain with every storm lol.

But hopefully this event busts in a good way for our area.

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1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Right now the forecast is mostly plain rain so white rain would be a plus in this case.

It’s going to mostly snow. It’s definitely colder than modeled and it seems that no models ever gets the dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling. Remember when the precipitation moves in its going to start as snow flurries. If we get enough instability from the low pressure, building up about 100 south of Boston we could have a mostly mix to snow event. Regardless it’s going to be interesting. This could easily overachieve, or not. 

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