TwcMan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: agreed. 0 degrees and then warm up and rain does nothing for me. Let it torch at this point ala '11-12 I agree. It might sound crazy but I don’t even want to look at snow this year. I’m that fed up with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The cold is good for controlling the bug population, and early warmth can harm trees when hit with late season freezes. (See April 2007)I love snow, but I love the very cold that is nature’s pruning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Anybody else looking at that -12F for a high temp this week in Chicago? We are barely getting the edge of that airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Oooops. I told you the pattern was breaking right down but as always you condescendingly “opined” and degraded people. Karma Dude , the next 5 days are well BN with 2 shots of light snow , Your " breakdown " is a 5 to 7 day period of AN , then it`s back ( in the 10 -15 ) as we head towards p8. You guys think it`s over ? Good luck bud. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Dude , the next 5 days are well BN with 2 shots of light snow , Your " breakdown " is a 5 to 7 day period of AN , then it`s back ( in the 10 -15 ) as we head towards p8. You guys think it`s over ? Good luck bud. This assumes it gets to phase 8, many MJO forecasts have it meandering in phase 6/7. And this year anything outside 5 days has been impossible to forecast including the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I don't know how anyone can be calling for winter cancel when almost every forecast outside 5 days has been garbage all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Dude , the next 5 days are well BN with 2 shots of light snow , Your " breakdown " is a 5 to 7 day period of AN , then it`s back ( in the 10 -15 ) as we head towards p8. You guys think it`s over ? Good luck bud. 10-15 days away as usual. Maybe it comes this time, maybe it doesn't, but it's getting late early. The warmup in the mid term was only seen by modeling 2-3 days ago, so anything beyond that is anyone's guess at this juncture... No guarantee the erratic MJO doesn't pop over to 4-5 again...and without blocking any arctic shots are in and out like the one this week...need something to lock it in....too much going wrong this year IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I do recall a certain forecaster saying winter was over last year in mid February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This assumes it gets to phase 8, many MJO forecasts have it meandering in phase 6/7. And this year anything outside 5 days has been impossible to forecast including the MJO. Use these , you are going back into a low amplitude p8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I don't know how anyone can be calling for winter cancel when almost every forecast outside 5 days has been garbage all winter. Including the ones that didn't call for a lot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 10-15 days away as usual. Maybe it comes this time, maybe it doesn't, but it's getting late early. The warmup in the mid term was only seen by modeling 2-3 days ago, so anything beyond that is anyone's guess at this juncture... No guarantee the erratic MJO doesn't pop over to 4-5 again...and without blocking any arctic shots are in and out like the one this week...need something to lock it in....too much going wrong this year IMO. The next 5 are cold , small snow shots , then we def warm for 5 days and then we prob reset. The MJO could always wheel back into a crud p , but before it does I think it gets to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I do recall a certain forecaster saying winter was over last year in mid February You never know-we could have a wild March-but that's a wildcard....can't count on it given our climo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Including the ones that didn't call for a lot of snow? Well most guidance since Jan 1 has been calling for lots of snow in the LR so we haven't really gotten a chance to test that theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Dude , the next 5 days are well BN with 2 shots of light snow , Your " breakdown " is a 5 to 7 day period of AN , then it`s back ( in the 10 -15 ) as we head towards p8. You guys think it`s over ? Good luck bud. Yep, sure. You condescendingly degraded posters as usual for suggesting this breakdown was even coming at all, arrogantly, as you always do, as if you control the weather and tell it what to do. Then when the news is bad you disappear, then reappear to lecture people. And the cold is lasting less than 5 days. It’s going bye bye come Saturday. MJO phase 8, how long have we heard that battle cry now? 3 weeks. It’s coming, it’s coming. So is met spring in 4 weeks from now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep, sure. You condescendingly degraded posters as usual for suggesting this breakdown was even coming at all, arrogantly, as you always do, as if you control the weather and tell it what to do. Then when the news is bad you disappear, then reappear to lecture people. And the cold is lasting less than 5 days. It’s going bye bye come Saturday. MJO phase 8, how long have we heard that battle cry now? 3 weeks. It’s coming, it’s coming. So is met winter in 4 weeks from now There`s zero bad news for me , my call was that we turn colder from Jan 10 onward , we did. The next 5 days are BN with L snow , then we warm for 5 days before the MJO goes back into 8. There`s no bad news.. It hasn`t snowed - I trade energy I don`t care about your backyard , I think I posted to Brian 2 weeks ago , you may be cold and dry Calling Brian ,,, could you enlighten the young lad pls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: There`s zero bad news for me , my call was that we turn colder from Jan 10 onward , we did. The next 5 days are BN with L snow , then we warm for 5 days before the MJO goes back into 8. There`s no bad news.. It hasn`t snowed , I think I posted to Brian 2 weeks ago , you may be cold and dry Calling Brian ,,, could you enlighten the young lad pls You did correct, but the warmup surprised you and everyone else-you were looking for a cold 30 day period...granted that could happen but we're going to have a few days with some big positive departures that were not see even 3 days ago...very difficult forecasting this year MJO jumping back to crappy phases mid Jan-also a surprise...Christ a month ago I thought we were headed towards a 14-15 repeat, doesn't look like that at all now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 1:22 PM, SnoSki14 said: Temperatures over the past few days have been verifying warmer than forecast. 50F right now, forecast was 45F. and today it was colder than forecast. Was supposed to be upper 30s and didn't even hit freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: and today it was colder than forecast. Was supposed to be upper 30s and didn't even hit freezing It was one of those after midnight highs today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 38 1231 AM 66 1916 39 -1 55 MINIMUM 25 942 AM -2 1925 27 -2 46 AVERAGE 32 33 -1 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: It was one of those after midnight highs today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 38 1231 AM 66 1916 39 -1 55 MINIMUM 25 942 AM -2 1925 27 -2 46 AVERAGE 32 33 -1 51 yeah but afternoon temps were supposed to be 36-38 as of this morning. EWR stayed around 30-31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: and today it was colder than forecast. Was supposed to be upper 30s and didn't even hit freezing That may help us a bit tomorrow if the south winds don't screw us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Anybody else looking at that -12F for a high temp this week in Chicago? We are barely getting the edge of that airmass. I’m glad we aren't getting a taste of that. I don’t even know how such an airmass would translate in our area. -12F is insane for a high temperature, especially in a place where the average high is in the low 30’s iirc. I can’t even fathom that level of cold as I’ve never experienced temperatures below zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cfa said: I’m glad we aren't getting a taste of that. I don’t even know how such an airmass would translate in our area. -12F is insane for a high temperature, especially in a place where the average high is in the low 30’s iirc. I’ve never experienced negative anything. I've felt -20 before and it was horrible, even with zero wind. It was part of this hellish month: https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/ithaca/new-york/united-states/usny0717/2015/2 E: Go to the history tab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: yeah but afternoon temps were supposed to be 36-38 as of this morning. EWR stayed around 30-31 The models were pretty close. But I didn’t look at what any outlets were running with. KNYC NAM MOS GUIDANCE 1/28/2019 1200 UTC DT /JAN 28/JAN 29 /JAN 30 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 N/X 29 TMP 29 30 28 29 29 30 32 35 37 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I've felt -20 before and it was horrible, even with zero wind. It was part of this hellish month: https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/ithaca/new-york/united-states/usny0717/2015/2 E: Go to the history tab. That sounds awful--How long could you withstand being outside for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: That sounds awful--How long could you withstand being outside for? Well I had a 25 minute walk to class so I guess that long lol. I was completely covered up though, including goggles so my eyes wouldn't freeze shut. On top of my regular clothes I also had leather gloves, a heavy sweater, a heavy jacket, two scarves and a skullcap, as well as the jacket's hood. The only exposed skin was immediately around my eyes, and even that was rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I've felt -20 before and it was horrible, even with zero wind. It was part of this hellish month: https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/ithaca/new-york/united-states/usny0717/2015/2 E: Go to the history tab. 1/19/94 I was in -15 degree air and that was at noon with light winds. Any exposed skin just feels like needles are being stuck in your skin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Lake Plaid routinely gets down to -20 during cold snaps...ive been there twice for it...it aint pretty, but not as bad as you think. At some point cold is just cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: 1/19/94 I was in -15 degree air and that was at noon with light winds. Any exposed skin just feels like needles are being stuck in your skin I remember that day like it was yesterday. I woke up to -22. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: Lake Plaid routinely gets down to -20 during cold snaps...ive been there twice for it...it aint pretty, but not as bad as you think. At some point cold is just cold. Wrong. There is a big difference between 0 and -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Wrong. There is a big difference between 0 and -20. That is opinion. Both will kill you if you are exposed...that is fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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