Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: No, no I actually didn’t. But you on the other hand have been calling for cold and snowstorms since the end of November. that's his M.O. every year. So and so said this, so and so said that....blah blah blah. In the end, too much to fix this year...strong PAC jet, MJO constantly in poor phases of 4-5-6, phantom -AO and -NAO. Just too much working against us. Happens. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: JB had originally talked of a long lasting severe cold snap that would stretch resources thin....he's not talking about that anymore and is stating the models are too strong on the warm up next week. (certainly trying to keep the ship afloat, but it's taking on more water than the pumps can handle...) JB is the head of the snow weenie club. He is always preaching coldest times ever with wall to wall winter. Why? Because clicks and marketing. Seriously, when was the last time JB said in the fall, "you know what? This year I am expecting above normal temperatures and below average snowfall for the east coast metropolitan region." I cannot remember one year where it was not going to be the coldest winter of all time. And sadly, not one has been the coldest winter of all time. Then when we have a winter like this, despite his original call being very incorrect, people still go back to, but JB sees cold and snowy in the future. Long range forecast are very difficult to make, but when each and every year is going to be record snowfall, you have to begin to wonder whether it is just hype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: JB is the head of the snow weenie club. He is always preaching coldest times ever with wall to wall winter. Why? Because clicks and marketing. Seriously, when was the last time JB said in the fall, "you know what? This year I am expecting above normal temperatures and below average snowfall for the east coast metropolitan region." I cannot remember one year where it was not going to be the coldest winter of all time. And sadly, not one has been the coldest winter of all time. Then when we have a winter like this, despite his original call being very incorrect, people still go back to, but JB sees cold and snowy in the future. Long range forecast are very difficult to make, but when each and every year is going to be record snowfall, you have to begin to wonder whether it is just hype. He did one year-04-05 maybe? And he was right...but that's it... While I enjoy JB and do learn alot from his posts/videos, he has a clear cold bias-he'll try to find the cold in the pattern regardless. You have to factor that in with him and Joe D'Aleo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: He did one year-04-05 maybe? And he was right...but that's it... While I enjoy JB and do learn alot from his posts/videos, he has a clear cold bias-he'll try to find the cold in the pattern regardless. You have to factor that in with him and Joe D'Aleo.... But back then he was with Accuweather still. So, how much of that was truly him? Plus that pattern was pretty darn clear. Not trying to be disrespectful and what not, because he does know his storms quite well. However, like you said for the cold, he could probably have his true snow weenies believe that it could snow in NYC for Independence Day at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, JustinRP37 said: But back then he was with Accuweather still. So, how much of that was truly him? Plus that pattern was pretty darn clear. Not trying to be disrespectful and what not, because he does know his storms quite well. However, like you said for the cold, he could probably have his true snow weenies believe that it could snow in NYC for Independence Day at noon. 2001-02 is probably the first year I remember reading him and he was still gung ho for a cold snowy winter in the northeast. We did get cold briefly in late December but it was clear it wouldn't last 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Oooops. I told you the pattern was breaking right down but as always you condescendingly “opined” and degraded people. Karma How about you wait until it actually happens??? Right now neither of you are right or wrong. Claiming victory a week before something happens, especially in weather and more so in a volatile winter is ridiculous... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I still think we reach average snowfall (I'll admit though I have crow cooking in the oven now). I always thought this winter would feature normal to just above normal temperatures (looks like that is still the case). I'm just playing devil's advocate and pointing out that JB always claims wall to wall cold and snow in a season forecast. But sorry to say, that forecast for winter is already 2/3rds wrong. December was warm and not snowy, and January was average and not snowy. That is one thing that drives me nuts is when someone predicts above average snowfall for meteorological winter with below average temperatures, then when we end up having much above normal temperatures but one massive storm got us above average, that person goes "see" I was right". To me that is just dumb luck, which in the 2010s has turned out right more times than not since we have been getting blockbuster storms. I think the MTA in NYC has had more suspended days in the 2010s than any other decade for snow. Edit: Wrong quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 2001-02 is probably the first year I remember reading him and he was still gung ho for a cold snowy winter in the northeast. We did get cold briefly in late December but it was clear it wouldn't last That was my last year on ski team, and I remember that being just downright brutally icy because like you said the cold didn't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: That was my last year on ski team, and I remember that being just downright brutally icy because like you said the cold didn't last long. Ironically I fell on the ice and fractured my elbow that winter. Its like the one icy day we get and I manage to fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: looks like a good call at this point. Nothing to date, maybe 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow and then we torch for 5 days...not looking good for anything sustained cold/snowy 31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that's his M.O. every year. So and so said this, so and so said that....blah blah blah. In the end, too much to fix this year...strong PAC jet, MJO constantly in poor phases of 4-5-6, phantom -AO and -NAO. Just too much working against us. Happens. Do you have a magic 8 ball? You should stop posting if you think winter is over. I didn't forecast anything. I just got my forecasts from Isotherm and earthlight and others who thought this winter was going to be good at this point. Everyone called for a pattern change in late January which verified. Instead of calling someone out , know your facts first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: How about you wait until it actually happens??? Right now neither of you are right or wrong. Claiming victory a week before something happens, especially in weather and more so in a volatile winter is ridiculous... He does this every winter. Now Brian is trolling just like he is. He will not do this on other forums because he knows he will be restricted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The models do have a very brief warm-up but it might not last that long. The mjo will be the key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: In April? February and march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Do you have a magic 8 ball? You should stop posting if you think winter is over. I didn't forecast anything. I just got my forecasts from Isotherm and earthlight and others who thought this winter was going to be good at this point. Everyone called for a pattern change in late January which verified. Instead of calling someone out , know your facts first. No magic 8 ball, but like I outlined above, a lot is working against us. And on point 2, why don't you look at the data and make your own thoughts instead of regurgitating what others say? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: No magic 8 ball, but like I outlined above, a lot is working against us. And on point 2, why don't you look at the data and make your own thoughts instead of regurgitating what others say? I'm too busy to do that and also a grade A weenie. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I'm too busy to do that and also a grade A weenie. at least you have a sense of humor about it...LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I still think we reach average snowfall (I'll admit though I have crow cooking in the oven now). I always thought this winter would feature normal to just above normal temperatures (looks like that is still the case). I'm just playing devil's advocate and pointing out that JB always claims wall to wall cold and snow in a season forecast. But sorry to say, that forecast for winter is already 2/3rds wrong. December was warm and not snowy, and January was average and not snowy. That is one thing that drives me nuts is when someone predicts above average snowfall for meteorological winter with below average temperatures, then when we end up having much above normal temperatures but one massive storm got us above average, that person goes "see" I was right". To me that is just dumb luck, which in the 2010s has turned out right more times than not since we have been getting blockbuster storms. I think the MTA in NYC has had more suspended days in the 2010s than any other decade for snow. Edit: Wrong quote. I agree on the average snowfall. All it takes is one good storm from mid feb to mid March. The call for sustained snow cover on the coast will fail as it’s very hard to maintain snow cover from mid feb on. Funny thing is we may end up with at least some snow cover during this upcoming cold period from two chances. One being the storm tomorrow night and another from convective snow showers Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 analogs of hope...not counting none el nino years like 2012-13 that had a November snowstorm and February storm... 1905-06...after only 2.5" by mid January the second half had three snowstorms adding up to 17.5"... 1913-14...after only 1.6" by mid January February and March had major storms and a total of 38.9"... 1923-24...after only 1.5" by mid January the second half totaled 26.0" including an eight inch snowstorm on April 1st... 1925-26...after only 4.1" by mid January February had two major storms adding to the 28.3" that fell... 1965-66...Only a trace of snow by mid January but the last week of January got 11.6" including a KU event...February got another 6" storm in the second half of the month... 1968-69...had 8" going into the second half of February because December was good...22.2" including a major storm after February 8th... 1982-83...had 4" by mid January but February delivered 21.5" with a major storm... 2014-15...had 3.2" by mid January and 47.1" the rest of the way including a snowy March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 50 minutes ago, uncle W said: analogs of hope...not counting none el nino years like 2012-13 that had a November snowstorm and February storm... 1905-06...after only 2.5" by mid January the second half had three snowstorms adding up to 17.5"... 1913-14...after only 1.6" by mid January February and March had major storms and a total of 38.9"... 1923-24...after only 1.5" by mid January the second half totaled 26.0" including an eight inch snowstorm on April 1st... 1925-26...after only 4.1" by mid January February had two major storms adding to the 28.3" that fell... 1965-66...Only a trace of snow by mid January but the last week of January got 11.6" including a KU event...February got another 6" storm in the second half of the month... 1968-69...had 8" going into the second half of February because December was good...22.2" including a major storm after February 8th... 1982-83...had 4" by mid January but February delivered 21.5" with a major storm... 2014-15...had 3.2" by mid January and 47.1" the rest of the way including a snowy March... We pray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 One good storm and all is forgiven? Is that the general consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: One good storm and all is forgiven? Is that the general consensus? We just need to establish a pattern in February or March which will allow that to happen. We really haven’t had a just 1 storm winter in a while. Even 12-13 and 15-16 had multiple events. Optimally, you want to increase your number of events so we can at least reach normal seasonal snowfall. But in this new snowier era, all it takes is 1 could work out. Be we are just going to have to wait and see how things turn out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone31 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just happy the ponds have been skateable (no such word I know) here in NWJersey. I'll take cold over snow, even the rainstorms we've had has been natures Zamboni. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, cyclone31 said: Just happy the ponds have been skateable (no such word I know) here in NWJersey. I'll take cold over snow, even the rainstorms we've had has been natures Zamboni. I believe it actually is a word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Do you have a magic 8 ball? You should stop posting if you think winter is over. I didn't forecast anything. I just got my forecasts from Isotherm and earthlight and others who thought this winter was going to be good at this point. Everyone called for a pattern change in late January which verified. Instead of calling someone out , know your facts first. Earthlight and Isotherm are both very bright and talented forecasters - not taking anything away from them, but, here, in this instance, they are going to throw gutter balls this winter. The writing is on the wall. One week of cold, a snow event here and there and and annoyingly cold March (again) wont make this winter wintry. Damn November snow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 40 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: One good storm and all is forgiven? Is that the general consensus? I'd take it, there's been cold and no extreme warmth so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Earthlight and Isotherm are both very bright and talented forecasters - not taking anything away from them, but, here, in this instance, they are going to throw gutter balls this winter. The writing is on the wall. One week of cold, a snow event here and there and and annoyingly cold March (again) wont make this winter wintry. Damn November snow events Speak for yourself. There are alot of people here who don't live in NYC or Long Island( the centers of the universe). This winter hasn't been great but I have received 15 inches so far and still have snow on the ground. Expecting another 2-4 by Wednesday morning. Temps have been pretty much average as well. Saying winter is over in January is just foolish even if you have had very little snow to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Earthlight and Isotherm are both very bright and talented forecasters - not taking anything away from them, but, here, in this instance, they are going to throw gutter balls this winter. The writing is on the wall. One week of cold, a snow event here and there and and annoyingly cold March (again) wont make this winter wintry. Damn November snow events In winters that NYC receives 3"+ of snow in November, NYC averages over 30". Edit: the exact figure is 36.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 42 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: One good storm and all is forgiven? Is that the general consensus? Nah, not for me at least. I’m drained at this point. No matter what happens now, I’ll be ready for spring. Unless we get a 2014-15 Boston redux here, this winter cannot leave soon enough imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Nah, not for me at least. I’m drained at this point. No matter what happens now, I’ll be ready for spring. Unless we get a 2014-15 Boston redux here, this winter cannot leave soon enough imo agreed. 0 degrees and then warm up and rain does nothing for me. Let it torch at this point ala '11-12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: In winters that NYC receives 3"+ of snow in November, NYC averages over 30". Edit: the exact figure is 36.1" Back out the winters with black and white pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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