weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Kind of. For 3/8/18, we had 8.5" in Metuchen and people in P'way had 10-11", while Carteret had 4-5", so yes, an unusual gradient, but that was much more about where the death spiral snow bands set up, which isn't something global models are going to predict well (it's mesoscale level stuff). In this case, as far as I can tell, it's a very steep gradient due to temps when the precip falls and I don't think I've ever seen Carteret get 0" while P'way gets 4", due to thermal profiles. That storm was such a letdown over here. well we made up for it with the next two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 58 minutes ago, North and West said: That just destroyed us in Morris County . All during the storm I kept telling people here I wasn't seeing much and they didn't believe me. Ten minutes west on 287 they had nearly a foot. Real snowhole here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Maybe not a cold snowy month(February)? Total seasonal snowfall. February could still be snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: when that cold is coming in that's the period to watch for an east coast storm IMO around the 8 -10th - MJO should be favorable That's if the MJO continues to progress, some have it reversing back to phase 6. Others keep it at a high amplitude and have it moving through 7+. Hopefully that's correct. 7 hours ago, Drz1111 said: Anyone bitching about this winter must’ve been too young to remember the great El Niño of 1998. This is practically Arctic compared to that - it’s near normal and we’ve had plenty of cold days. Frankly we just got unlucky with a couple of storms - we could just as easy be tracking above average with 50-100mi differences in track. Shit happens. Im pumped for a nice pac torch. Much better to get those in Feb with the longer days and warm sun: it can be 55 and nice for golf and hiking, rather than 45 and useless. Also, that’ll blast snow all over th west, and I’m going skiing again out there in March. This has been a very strong snow season in CO/UT/NM and they have been due for one. It's all about the optics. 80% of forecasts I saw back in Oct/Nov/Dec had well AN snows for the northeast. And you had all the right ingredients in place for that to happen. So to go from that and see that 18/19 now ranks at the bottom of the snowfall list for this decade is a huge misstep. But what's even worse was that Dec/Jan were not warm months (Jan could end up normal) and precip has been well AN for both. It's not like 97/98 where we saw blowtorch months. And yeah we've had a ton of bad luck too because many areas in the SE/Mid-Atlantic have considerably more snowfall than this region, which only piles on the frustration. It's a perfect storm of suck that I haven't experienced with any winter before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Last 4 days of Jan. averaging 26degs., or 6degs., BN. Month to date is +1.4[33.8]. Should end Jan.at +0.4[32.8]. At this rate Feb. will have to be >3.6degs. BN to make DJF Normal. All 8 days are averaging 27degs., or 5degs. BN. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is a 70% chance of at least 7" by Feb. 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That's if the MJO continues to progress, some have it reversing back to phase 6. Others keep it at a high amplitude and have it moving through 7+. Hopefully that's correct. It's all about the optics. 80% of forecasts I saw back in Oct/Nov/Dec had well AN snows for the northeast. And you had all the right ingredients in place for that to happen. So to go from that and see that 18/19 now ranks at the bottom of the snowfall list for this decade is a huge misstep. But what's even worse was that Dec/Jan were not warm months (Jan could end up normal) and precip has been well AN for both. It's not like 97/98 where we saw blowtorch months. And yeah we've had a ton of bad luck too because many areas in the SE/Mid-Atlantic have considerably more snowfall than this region, which only piles on the frustration. It's a perfect storm of suck that I haven't experienced with any winter before. Almost all long range forecasts had this winter projected to be cold and snowy. LR forecasts are exceedingly difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Odd combination of weather statistics for January that we haven’t seen since 1980 in NYC. Januaries with major Arctic outbreaks dropping below 5 degrees are usually colder and snowier. Another example of how the 2010’s just do their own thing. NYC Year......Jan low....Jan avg......Jan snowfall 2019..........4.........33.8......+1.4......0.7” 2014..........4.........28.6.......-4.0......19.7” 2004...........1.........24.7.......-7.9......17.3” 2000..........3.........31.3........-1.5.......9.5” 1997..........4.........32.1........-0.5.......4.4” 1994..........-2........25.5.........-7.1......12.0” 1985..........-2........28.8.........-3.1......8.4” 1982...........0........26.1.........-6.5.....11.8” 1981..........2.........26.2..........-6.4.....8.0” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 People went gung ho on a -NAO winter when all signs in fall pointed towards it being positive especially when we saw the dip negative in mid november before it shot right back to positive. The WAR that had been in place since summer refused to die and was also completely ignored in many forecasts. Too many based their long range based off analogs and what was supposed to happen in a weak modoki nino instead of analyzing the current pattern in the fall. There were red flags. The 3 month running average for the NAO was positive for most of 2018, and this was completely ignored. There is a trend for the NAO to favor one phase or another over a long period of time and there wasn't anything that jumped out to me why this would change. There were some interesting theories on why we'd see a neg nao but they have all came up empty this year. Sometimes simple is best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: People went gung ho on a -NAO winter when all signs in fall pointed towards it being positive especially when we saw the dip negative in mid november before it shot right back to positive. The WAR that had been in place since summer refused to die and was also completely ignored in many forecasts. Too many based their long range based off analogs and what was supposed to happen in a weak modoki nino instead of analyzing the current pattern in the fall. There were red flags. The 3 month running average for the NAO was positive for most of 2018, and this was completely ignored. There is a trend for the NAO to favor one phase or another over a long period of time and there wasn't anything that jumped out to me why this would change. Their were some interesting theories on why we'd see a neg nao but they have all came up empty this year. Sometimes simple is best. Long range weather forecasting is like trying to definitively guess the sex of a child you are going to have before you even conceive. You have a 50/50 shot and if you get it right, you are lucky. God controls the weather not analytics. I'd bet this upcoming Spring will be cold and raw.... One other thing to note that I have realized over the years (aside from Nov 1995), any winter with an early season snowstorm (pre 12/1) ends being the highlight of the winter (at least since 1989) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I think I want to wait out the -NAO thought written above and you're welcome to ping me April 1, if it indeed never really went persistently negative in Feb/Mar with below normal snow NYC. Your observation regarding early season snow is valid and I like it. But I also like analytics and it's only going to improve. I'm definitely not giving up on the next 7 weeks. Regarding the next two weeks...They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail. Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM. Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now). I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed. I'm thinking temps within 2F of that which was written yesterday which was heavily based on EC 2M temps and abnormally cold 850 temps of -25C. This is impressive...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985... not 1994. Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F. Lets see what the models deliver the next several days... noting some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events, meaning chance of Ice near i80 instead of all rain in Feb 3 and beyond rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 45 minutes ago, The Iceman said: People went gung ho on a -NAO winter when all signs in fall pointed towards it being positive especially when we saw the dip negative in mid november before it shot right back to positive. The WAR that had been in place since summer refused to die and was also completely ignored in many forecasts. Too many based their long range based off analogs and what was supposed to happen in a weak modoki nino instead of analyzing the current pattern in the fall. There were red flags. The 3 month running average for the NAO was positive for most of 2018, and this was completely ignored. There is a trend for the NAO to favor one phase or another over a long period of time and there wasn't anything that jumped out to me why this would change. Their were some interesting theories on why we'd see a neg nao but they have all came up empty this year. Sometimes simple is best. We are entering a long term -AMO phase. -AMO is correlated with predominant +NAO. Opposite for +AMO. -AMO is also associated with fewer KU events overall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are entering a long term -AMO phase. -AMO is correlated with predominant +NAO. Opposite for +AMO. -AMO is also associated with fewer KU events overall The cooling of the North Atlantic and warming of the SST’s off the US East Coast is different than the last -AMO era. So we get more of an tripole pattern rather than a canonical -AMO. Very interesting paper on what we may expect going forward with enhanced strorminess. So there is no indication of any immediate changes in the number KU events. We have already had this pattern for several years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11046-x Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations. However, unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess. Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are entering a long term -AMO phase. -AMO is correlated with predominant +NAO. Opposite for +AMO. -AMO is also associated with fewer KU events overall While the AMO definitely influences the NAO, it seems like it isn't a perfect correlation. NAO trends are typically 10-15 years in length while the AMO is more like 20-30 years. It looks to me like it's more that a peak AMO event influences the NAO but not during the entire event. Also, I think the lack of KU events can be more attributed to the NAO than the AMO. There were several KU's during the last -AMO. Including 1996,93,87. Now it may be that there are more 'bad' winter's in a -AMO but I don't believe there is a difference in the amount or strength of storms on the east coast. The lack of blocking though means that the storm track favors inland areas. Still important to note that we are entering a -AMO phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The cooling of the North Atlantic and warming of the SST’s off the US East Coast is different than the last -AMO era. So we get more of an Atlantic Tripole rather than a canonical -AMO. Very interesting paper on what we may expect going forward with enhanced strorminess. So there is no indication of any immediate changes in the number KU events. We have already had this pattern for several years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11046-x Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations. However, unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess. Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre. Great read. Thanks for sharing. You can kind of see it this winter. We have not had any lack of strong systems the main factor is that we don't have any long term blocking. Now if a -AMO correlates to a +NAO, it seems like this increase of storminess so to speak will have a bigger effect on inland area's like we have seen this year. Now I wasn't alive in the 80's but it doesn't seem like they didn't have a lack of storms either, just didn't have the blocking in place so 95 went over to rain more often than not. We're relying on perfect timing without the blocking in place so while we still can see KU's as evidence this decade, inland area's definitely will be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are entering a long term -AMO phase. -AMO is correlated with predominant +NAO. Opposite for +AMO. -AMO is also associated with fewer KU events overall Earthlight thinks the AMO is changing soon and we should get into a favorable pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight thinks the AMO is changing soon and we should get into a favorable pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight thinks the AMO is changing soon and we should get into a favorable pattern. Sure John 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just gotta laugh after awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Great read. Thanks for sharing. You can kind of see it this winter. We have not had any lack of strong systems the main factor is that we don't have any long term blocking. Now if a -AMO correlates to a +NAO, it seems like this increase of storminess so to speak will have a bigger effect on inland area's like we have seen this year. Now I wasn't alive in the 80's but it doesn't seem like they didn't have a lack of storms either, just didn't have the blocking in place so 95 went over to rain more often than not. We're relying on perfect timing without the blocking in place so while we still can see KU's as evidence this decade, inland area's definitely will be favored. Thanks. Not sure the snowfall outcome would have been much different for Dec and Jan even with more of a -NAO. While we have had -AO intervals, the Pacific was just too unfavorable. The typical El Niño forcing near the Date Lane was much further west due to the strong MJO activity. The very warm SST departures in the Central and Western Pacific have really revved the MJO up. So we have the forcing shifted back across the Western Pacific and Maritime Continent. As for the monthly -NAO figures, they have been mostly positive since the 14-15 winter. But the intervals that we did get like March 2018 really produced. Other times, we made due on shorter Atlantic blocking periods along with Pacific blocking. The Warm Arctic, Cold Continents pattern has also been a factor in increased snowfall this decade. Hopefullly, we can get some conditions later this winter or early spring that produce a decent snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 JB ready to follow Trump and join the Troglodyte (as in cave-in) Society it seems today. His analog today consists of a single event or thread now. When it is this cold in Chicago in Jan., Feb. is usually BN. I am sure there are many cases of the opposite. Or I could just as easily claim that when the temperature is 100+ on July 30 in Chicago, it is super cold 6 months later. Ridiculous. Personally I feel I am in 1997-98 working with 0.5" of seasonal snow as March 20 approaches to ruin a record setting snowless winter. Then a week later----the greatest March Heatwave ever. Take out the surprise Nov. snowstorm and we have 0.7". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: JB ready to follow Trump and join the Troglodyte (as in cave-in) Society it seems today. His analog today consists of a single event or thread now. When it is this cold in Chicago in Jan., Feb. is usually BN. I am sure there are many cases of the opposite. Or I could just as easily claim that when the temperature is 100+ on July 30 in Chicago, it is super cold 6 months later. Ridiculous. Personally I feel I am in 1997-98 working with 0.5" of seasonal snow as March 20 approaches to ruin a record setting snowless winter. Then a week later----the greatest March Heatwave ever. Take out the surprise Nov. snowstorm and we have 0.7". JB had originally talked of a long lasting severe cold snap that would stretch resources thin....he's not talking about that anymore and is stating the models are too strong on the warm up next week. (certainly trying to keep the ship afloat, but it's taking on more water than the pumps can handle...) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 49 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight thinks the AMO is changing soon and we should get into a favorable pattern. broken record 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 41 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Just gotta laugh after awhile one of the weirdest MJO's period's I can remember. If it stays in 6 you can nail the coffin on this "winter" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: JB had originally talked of a long lasting severe cold snap that would stretch resources thin....he's not talking about that anymore and is stating the models are too strong on the warm up next week. (certainly trying to keep the ship afloat, but it's taking on more water than the pumps can handle...) Soon, JB is going to be Casey Jones 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, triniiphone said: broken record In April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 12:08 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I love to see guidance that maybe I missed , I was hoping he could show me. Another BOZO in here from Red Bank posed in here a week ago that the upcoming period would have the trough in the west. He`s going to test zero during that period. Oooops. I told you the pattern was breaking right down but as always you condescendingly “opined” and degraded people. Karma 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Oooops. I told you the pattern was breaking right down but as always you condescendingly “opined” and degraded people. Karma You cancelled winter in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 57 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: One goes up one goes all COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You cancelled winter in January. looks like a good call at this point. Nothing to date, maybe 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow and then we torch for 5 days...not looking good for anything sustained cold/snowy 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You cancelled winter in January. No, no I actually didn’t. But you on the other hand have been calling for cold and snowstorms since the end of November. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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