bluewave Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Just perspective on this winter… Near normal (slightly AN) temperatures and not much snow. You go back to November and you start charting it out...that is what you get. Seems lost on this site, But we have not witnessed the AN temperature extremes we have gotten over the last few years. While the overall warm departures since December 1st haven’t been that high, the temperature swings have been as extreme as the last few years. Models hinting at another near 50 degreee or greater temperature jump like the one we saw last week. 40 degree Decembers like last month are becoming so common that they just feel normal to people. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 hours ago, winterwx21 said: That's true, but most aren't looking at it that way because that snowstorm was a freak event in mid November. We've had pretty much no snow at all during met winter and it's almost February. Let's hope we can at least pull out a little 1 to 2 inch snow tuesday night. "not looking at it that way?" There's no other way to look at it. The snow from 11/15 counts. Period. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Anyone bitching about this winter must’ve been too young to remember the great El Niño of 1998. This is practically Arctic compared to that - it’s near normal and we’ve had plenty of cold days. Frankly we just got unlucky with a couple of storms - we could just as easy be tracking above average with 50-100mi differences in track. Shit happens. Im pumped for a nice pac torch. Much better to get those in Feb with the longer days and warm sun: it can be 55 and nice for golf and hiking, rather than 45 and useless. Also, that’ll blast snow all over th west, and I’m going skiing again out there in March. This has been a very strong snow season in CO/UT/NM and they have been due for one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Anyone bitching about this winter must’ve been too young to remember the great El Niño of 1998. This is practically Arctic compared to that - it’s near normal and we’ve had plenty of cold days. Frankly we just got unlucky with a couple of storms - we could just as easy be tracking above average with 50-100mi differences in track. Shit happens. Im pumped for a nice pac torch. Much better to get those in Feb with the longer days and warm sun: it can be 55 and nice for golf and hiking, rather than 45 and useless. Also, that’ll blast snow all over th west, and I’m going skiing again out there in March. This has been a very strong snow season in CO/UT/NM and they have been due for one. well, any of us could go visit snow some place else. More to the point, we can go visit someplace warm. Frankly, if I'm going to hit the road at this time of the year, I'm not heading into snow. I'm going where I can catch a few bass and I don't mean through the ice. But then I don't ski or sled or do anything else in the snow; it's good for a few pictures to send to my wife's family in Colombia, that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 28 minutes ago, RU848789 said: "not looking at it that way?" There's no other way to look at it. The snow from 11/15 counts. Period. End of story. I think the point is that it was not only long ago at this point, it was during a time of the year when winter hasn't really settled in and it wasn't going to stick around for very long, which it did not. . So there is no winter "feel" despite the 5 or so inches, kinda like after the freak Oct snow in 2011, which also correlated with a piss poor winter. Which this has been up to now, we can all agree. But of course it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Thoughts on the incoming precipitation for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, ny10019 said: Thoughts on the incoming precipitation for Tuesday? There's a thread for it. Nothing much if anything for us. Sussex and some areas could get something decent. New England could get a big one. Again. My BIL in ME has had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: There's a thread for it. Nothing much if anything for us. Sussex and some areas could get something decent. New England could get a big one. Again. My BIL in ME has had it. Most models showing 1-2" for northern Middlesex County, although a couple of models show a very steep gradient from east to west (like the FV3 showing nada for Carteret and 4" for P'way), which I find a little hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Against the 2010’s snowier standard, NYC is in 9th place for the season. But 10th place since December 1st. Seasonal snowfall through Jan 27th for NYC 1 2011-01-27 56.1 0 2 2016-01-27 27.9 0 3 2014-01-27 27.5 0 4 2018-01-27 17.9 0 5 2015-01-27 17.1 0 6 2010-01-27 13.2 0 7 2017-01-27 10.1 0 8 2012-01-27 7.2 0 9 2019-01-27 7.1 1 10 2013-01-27 6.6 0 Dec 1 through Jan 27 NYC snowfall 1 2011-01-27 56.1 0 2 2016-01-27 27.9 0 3 2014-01-27 27.5 0 4 2018-01-27 17.9 0 5 2015-01-27 16.9 0 6 2010-01-27 13.2 0 7 2017-01-27 10.1 0 8 2012-01-27 4.3 0 9 2013-01-27 1.9 0 10 2019-01-27 0.7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Extreme cold will likely spread from the Midwest into the Northeast this week. Readings in Chicago could fall to their lowest level in 25 years, possibly challenging that city's all-time minimum temperature record. The 1/27 18z GFS MOS forecast a low temperature of -26° in Chicago for January 30. The last time Chicago had a reading of -20° or below was January 18, 1994 when the temperature fell to -21°. Chicago's all-time low temperature is -27°, which was set on January 20, 1985. Single-digit temperatures will be possible in the big cities of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, including Boston, Baltimore, New York, and Washington, DC. The SOI was -3.34 today. This is the second consecutive day the SOI has been negative. The SOI could still reach -10.00 in coming days, but the probability of such an outcome has decreased. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.484. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.185. To date, 52% of days have seen the AO below 0.000 and 21% have had the AO at or below -1.000. On January 26, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.899 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the January 25-adjusted figure of 1.814. The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 4-7 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The GEFS favors a push into Phase 8, but its long-term verification has recently been weak. The historical data is ambiguous. Since 1974, there have been 12 cases when the MJO reached Phase 5 with an Amplitude of 1.000 to 2.499 in the January 16-31 period. All of those cases proceeded directly to Phase 6 and 9 (75%) proceeded directly to Phase 7. The historical risks are balanced between the MJO's reversing back to Phase 6 or continuing to Phase 8. In any case, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude through the remainder of January and into the first week of February. With the MJO's likely pushing toward or reaching Phase 7 toward the start of February, the AO will very likely see predominantly negative values for a sustained period of time. Strong to severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January. A storm or frontal passage could bring some snow during the January 29-30 period with the Arctic cold front that brings severe cold to the East. A small accumulation is possible across the region. Meanwhile, Boston's terrible snow drought continues. Through 6 pm today, Boston had received just 1.8" snow for the season to date. Only winter 2006-07 with 1.5" had seen less at this point in time. Following the shot of extreme cold, a period of moderation appears likely during the middle of the first week of February. The operational ECMWF and EPS are particularly aggressive with the warming. Should strong blocking develop near the beginning of the month, that blocking could blunt the extent of the warming. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. Finally, in the next day or two, the weekly ENSO Region anomalies centered around January 23 will become available. The risk that the El Niño could remain a weak basin-wide event through much of February has increased in recent days, as it appears unlikely that the modeled westerly wind burst will be sufficiently strong to materially alter the ENSO Region SSTAs. Such an outcome would have implications, especially with respect to snowfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Most models showing 1-2" for northern Middlesex County, although a couple of models show a very steep gradient from east to west (like the FV3 showing nada for Carteret and 4" for P'way), which I find a little hard to believe. We saw it last March. We had about 4 and it went up to 6 your way and 9 in Piscataway. Very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Finally, in the next day or two, the weekly ENSO Region anomalies centered around January 23 will become available. The risk that the El Niño could remain a weak basin-wide event through much of February has increased in recent days, as it appears unlikely that the modeled westerly wind burst will be sufficiently strong to materially alter the ENSO Region SSTAs. Such an outcome would have implications, especially with respect to snowfall. Maybe not a cold snowy month(February)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Maybe not a cold snowy month(February)? no indication of that at this time ……….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Drz1111 said: Anyone bitching about this winter must’ve been too young to remember the great El Niño of 1998. This is practically Arctic compared to that - it’s near normal and we’ve had plenty of cold days. Frankly we just got unlucky with a couple of storms - we could just as easy be tracking above average with 50-100mi differences in track. Shit happens. Im pumped for a nice pac torch. Much better to get those in Feb with the longer days and warm sun: it can be 55 and nice for golf and hiking, rather than 45 and useless. Also, that’ll blast snow all over th west, and I’m going skiing again out there in March. This has been a very strong snow season in CO/UT/NM and they have been due for one. Expectations were low that winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Expectations were low that winter though. yeah big el nino's are often warm here...82-83, 97-98 and 15-16...we lucked out 2 of the three with a big storm, but otherwise, the winters were torches outside of a 2-3 week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: no indication of that at this time ……….. have you see the euro and EPS for this coming weekend and into the following week? Massive torch incoming (if correct) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: have you see the euro and EPS for 2nd week of Feb? Massive torch incoming (if correct) yes that's why I replied to him no indication of a cold and snowy Feb - nothing is showing up anywhere to indicate we will have cold along with significant snow - in fact just the opposite might happen ……... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yes that's why I replied to him no indication of a cold and snowy Feb - nothing is showing up anywhere to indicate we will have cold along with significant snow - in fact just the opposite might happen ……... I misunderstood your post. I agree, looks horrible on modeling now...which is a change however from the models showing constant good pattern 7-10 days out.... let's look at it this way then, maybe it will snow in a warm pattern like last year's president's day weekend event. Heck, we can't get snow in this (somewhat) colder pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I misunderstood your post. I agree, looks horrible on modeling now...which is a change however from the models showing constant good pattern 7-10 days out.... let's look at it this way then, maybe it will snow in a warm pattern like last year's president's day weekend event. Heck, we can't get snow in this (somewhat) colder pattern.... Let’s hope not! When you say torch, can you quantify that in temps please? I read 60’s somewhere. Is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Let’s hope not! When you say torch, can you quantify that in temps please? I read 60’s somewhere. Is that possible? From tropical tidbits, this is the 500 MB temp anomolies for a few dates....ugly to say the least, however there is more cold moving in in the long range, but verbatim this would be quite warm for 3-4 days...(the op run has 2 m daytime temps of 50-60 from PHL to NYC during this period.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I misunderstood your post. I agree, looks horrible on modeling now...which is a change however from the models showing constant good pattern 7-10 days out.... let's look at it this way then, maybe it will snow in a warm pattern like last year's president's day weekend event. Heck, we can't get snow in this (somewhat) colder pattern.... 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Let’s hope not! When you say torch, can you quantify that in temps please? I read 60’s somewhere. Is that possible? last February we hit 80 in some locations ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 cold coming in behind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: cold coming in behind... when that cold is coming in that's the period to watch for an east coast storm IMO around the 8 -10th - MJO should be favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: when that cold is coming in that's the period to watch for an east coast storm IMO around the 8 -10th - MJO should be favorable hoping we can get one decent storm out of this disaster....even duds like 94-95 had a good storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: We saw it last March. We had about 4 and it went up to 6 your way and 9 in Piscataway. Very possible. Kind of. For 3/8/18, we had 8.5" in Metuchen and people in P'way had 10-11", while Carteret had 4-5", so yes, an unusual gradient, but that was much more about where the death spiral snow bands set up, which isn't something global models are going to predict well (it's mesoscale level stuff). In this case, as far as I can tell, it's a very steep gradient due to temps when the precip falls and I don't think I've ever seen Carteret get 0" while P'way gets 4", due to thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hoping we can get one decent storm out of this disaster....even duds like 94-95 had a good storm.... Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we did get a storm after the warmth. It happened last year after we hit 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 At least the cold coming in after the warm up won’t be like the cold at the end of this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Kind of. For 3/8/18, we had 8.5" in Metuchen and people in P'way had 10-11", while Carteret had 4-5", so yes, an unusual gradient, but that was much more about where the death spiral snow bands set up, which isn't something global models are going to predict well (it's mesoscale level stuff). In this case, as far as I can tell, it's a very steep gradient due to temps when the precip falls and I don't think I've ever seen Carteret get 0" while P'way gets 4", due to thermal profiles. That just destroyed us in Morris County . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Kind of. For 3/8/18, we had 8.5" in Metuchen and people in P'way had 10-11", while Carteret had 4-5", so yes, an unusual gradient, but that was much more about where the death spiral snow bands set up, which isn't something global models are going to predict well (it's mesoscale level stuff). In this case, as far as I can tell, it's a very steep gradient due to temps when the precip falls and I don't think I've ever seen Carteret get 0" while P'way gets 4", due to thermal profiles. 3/8 was a disaster here. We got about a foot of soggy goo with a lot of wind. Tons of trees down and power was out for days after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: 3/8 was a disaster here. We got about a foot of soggy goo with a lot of wind. Tons of trees down and power was out for days after that one. schools were closed here 3 days due to that...numerous trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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