January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. 

If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

Cancelling winter in January ? Who does that ?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least for a while. A more -PNA La Niña-like pattern takes over during the first week of February. We then have to wait and see what happens after that. The -PNA interval looks like a MJO 6 pattern.

 

 

This will be wrong if the Mjo keeps on going into 8.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That would be historic since there have only been 4 years in NYC with less than 4” after December 1st. We may see a pattern where everyone cancels winter and then a 4+ or 6+ snowstorm sneaks up on us before the season is over. 

1	2019-04-20	0.7	84
2	1973-04-20	2.8	0
3	1932-04-20	3.3	0
4	2002-04-20	3.5	0
5	1919-04-20	3.8

 

Call me crazy, but the CFS and EURO weeklies look good. I know they keep getting pushed back BUT the MJO looks good on 90% of guidance.

Also, both CFS and EURO weeklies predicted this torch week coming up with a dip of the pna. Then the pattern gets better.

Also, Isotherm and too a lesser extent Don are still confident on a better pattern.

Now, it may not last long, but like you said 1 or 2 moderate to heavy events are still POSSIBILITIES before spring.

Neck, we may even luck out with a hail Mary blizzard to get our area to climo.

All in all too early to completely give up.

 

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That would be historic since there have only been 4 years in NYC with less than 4” after December 1st. We may see a pattern where everyone cancels winter and then a 4+ or 6+ snowstorm sneaks up on us before the season is over. 

1	2019-04-20	0.7	84
2	1973-04-20	2.8	0
3	1932-04-20	3.3	0
4	2002-04-20	3.5	0
5	1919-04-20	3.8

 

My hunch is this -PNA is a total head fake and never happens.  I’m not buying the change next week is anything more than a 5-7 day warmup 

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Call me crazy, but the CFS and EURO weeklies look good. I know they keep getting pushed back BUT the MJO looks good on 90% of guidance.

Also, both CFS and EURO weeklies predicted this torch week coming up with a dip of the pna. Then the pattern gets better.

Also, Isotherm and too a lesser extent Don are still confident on a better pattern.

Now, it may not last long, but like you said 1 or 2 moderate to heavy events are still POSSIBILITIES before spring.

Neck, we may even luck out with a hail Mary blizzard to get our area to climo.

All in all too early to completely give up.

 

All it takes is 1 storm here to get to normal.

[Yanksfan]

On another note, this is a message to all the so called climate change theorists... just because we're experiencing  a dead ratter winter, does not mean this is the new norm from here on out. I have a family member who believes in this assumption.  We have been incredibly fortunate coming off a string of above normal winters. We were due for a bad one at some point. 

[dWave]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That would be historic since there have only been 4 years in NYC with less than 4” after December 1st. We may see a pattern where everyone cancels winter and then a 4+ or 6+ snowstorm sneaks up on us before the season is over. 

1	2019-04-20	0.7	84
2	1973-04-20	2.8	0
3	1932-04-20	3.3	0
4	2002-04-20	3.5	0
5	1919-04-20	3.8

 

That wouldnt suprise me..like the almost snowless 97-98 until a late March suprise snowfall kept us out the record books.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least for a while. A more -PNA La Niña-like pattern takes over during the first week of February. We then have to wait and see what happens after that. The -PNA interval looks like a MJO 6 pattern.

 

 

There are big problems beyond the 1st week of February too. Look at the strength of the PAC jet going into mid month. It’s absolutely raging, zonal and aimed directly at the CONUS

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This will be wrong if the Mjo keeps on going into 8.

We still are going to get at least a transient MJO look while it’s going through phase 6. Remember, there is often a lag with the MJO. The big question then becomes what does the MJO do after the first week of February? The optimal outcome would be to continue through phase 8. Or even decay and allow the Niño forcing near the Date Line to dominate. 

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This will be wrong if the Mjo keeps on going into 8.

Big if there. MJO has been unpredictable all season. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Call me crazy, but the CFS and EURO weeklies look good. I know they keep getting pushed back BUT the MJO looks good on 90% of guidance.

Also, both CFS and EURO weeklies predicted this torch week coming up with a dip of the pna. Then the pattern gets better.

Also, Isotherm and too a lesser extent Don are still confident on a better pattern.

Now, it may not last long, but like you said 1 or 2 moderate to heavy events are still POSSIBILITIES before spring.

Neck, we may even luck out with a hail Mary blizzard to get our area to climo.

All in all too early to completely give up.

 

The long lasting severe cold option looks to be dwindling too....with no blocking a fast flow (pac jet) cold is in and out...

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

On another note, this is a message to all the so called climate change theorists... just because we're experiencing  a dead ratter winter, does not mean this is the new norm from here on out. I have a family member who believes in this assumption.  We have been incredibly fortunate coming off a string of above normal winters. We were due for a bad one at some point. 

Actually most climate change models show our area continuing to have an increasing average snowfall for awhile. One of the reasons for this is the ocean temps have been well above normal for many of our storms adding fuel to the storm. Globally, warmer air holds more moisture. If you look at the average cloud cover globally, that too has been on the way up. So for awhile increasing snowfall until things take a turn. The problem is the media doesn’t cover or digest science too well. And for anyone who doesn’t think that almost 8 billion humans don’t have an impact on the climate, well I can’t help them. There are still people who insist the world is flat and evolution doesn’t exist. Yet we can see the globe and watch evolution with our very own eyes. The problem is people believe climate change is a political problem, it is not. And I see no reason why we can not develop technology to allow us to use resources more efficiently and have a cleaner environment. Nobody wants to live anywhere near a mountain top removal mining area. My prior life I worked in coal my restoration and I can tell you it is not a pretty sight. And always remember, that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. You cannot avoid thermodynamics even with fossil fuels. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

 

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

 

 

 

Wow!  Dangerously cold Monday night through Thursday.  Feel terrible for those who will have to endure that--and I hope people's dwellings are able to deal with that.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least in the 1980s we did OK with snowfall (is 50% of average) this year is in another level with 97 98 and 2001 2002.

Huh?  NYC is only 3-4 inches below normal to this point...

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Wow!  Dangerously cold Monday night through Thursday.  Feel terrible for those who will have to endure that--and I hope people's dwellings are able to deal with that.

Some parts of Illinois could see bettter than a 70 degree temperature jump a few days later.

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Huh?  NYC is only 3-4 inches below normal to this point...

That's true, but most aren't looking at it that way because that snowstorm was a freak event in mid November. We've had pretty much no snow at all during met winter and it's almost February. Let's hope we can at least pull out a little 1 to 2 inch snow tuesday night.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. 

If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

I nominate this for the worst post of all time on this forum. And it has absolutely nothing to do with lack of snow. It has everything to do with making a blanket statement intended to stir the pot. This is straight trolling.  

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I nominate this for the worst post of all time on this forum. And it has absolutely nothing to do with lack of snow. It has everything to do with making a blanket statement intended to stir the pot. This is straight trolling.  

I'll bump my post in 6 weeks. It's not trolling, I'm very confident the snow is pretty much done. 

Take a look at the 12z Gfs op, it has a full scale Pacific jet roaring through mid February. If that verifies then Feb will be warmer than both Dec & Jan.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll bump my post in 6 weeks. It's not trolling, I'm very confident the snow is pretty much done. 

Take a look at the 12z Gfs op, it has a full scale Pacific jet roaring through mid February. If that verifies then Feb will be warmer than both Dec & Jan.

1. We see accumulating snow Tuesday night. 

2. After the cold and dry period we see a transient warmup associated with MJO 6/7

3. As the MJO goes into 8 we are approaching the absolute peak of snow climatology and more specifically for KU storms. 

4. A -NAO developes in the long term.

 

We go through this snowless how?

[495weatherguy]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some parts of Illinois could see bettter than a 70 degree temperature jump a few days later.

Insane.  Imagine if this type of swing occurred a few weeks later?  Say early March?

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

1. We see accumulating snow Tuesday night. 

2. After the cold and dry period we see a transient warmup associated with MJO 6/7

3. As the MJO goes into 8 we are approaching the absolute peak of snow climatology and more specifically for KU storms. 

4. A -NAO developes in the long term.

 

We go through this snowless how?

I’ll believe the -NAO when it actually happens

[kat5hurricane]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. 

If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

It's lunacy that anybody would say this in late January with such certainty. Do you have any meterological reasoning to back this up outside of being a disgruntled snow lover?

As we've seen many times in the past 15 years especially, there's been plenty of thread the needle snow events in less than ideal conditions. All it takes is one popping up on the models in the mid range to change the entire mood around here.  I don't know what flip flops more, the long term models or some AmericanWX posters

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

On another note, this is a message to all the so called climate change theorists... just because we're experiencing  a dead ratter winter, does not mean this is the new norm from here on out. I have a family member who believes in this assumption.  We have been incredibly fortunate coming off a string of above normal winters. We were due for a bad one at some point. 

Well climate change is a theory in the same way evolution is. At some point winters like this one probably will be the norm in our area. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

The long lasting severe cold option looks to be dwindling too....with no blocking a fast flow (pac jet) cold is in and out...

As long as you have this raging PAC jet, it’s going to be a huge problem: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=npac&pkg=uv250&runtime=2019012706&fh=384

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Actually most climate change models show our area continuing to have an increasing average snowfall for awhile. One of the reasons for this is the ocean temps have been well above normal for many of our storms adding fuel to the storm. Globally, warmer air holds more moisture. If you look at the average cloud cover globally, that too has been on the way up. So for awhile increasing snowfall until things take a turn. The problem is the media doesn’t cover or digest science too well. And for anyone who doesn’t think that almost 8 billion humans don’t have an impact on the climate, well I can’t help them. There are still people who insist the world is flat and evolution doesn’t exist. Yet we can see the globe and watch evolution with our very own eyes. The problem is people believe climate change is a political problem, it is not. And I see no reason why we can not develop technology to allow us to use resources more efficiently and have a cleaner environment. Nobody wants to live anywhere near a mountain top removal mining area. My prior life I worked in coal my restoration and I can tell you it is not a pretty sight. And always remember, that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. You cannot avoid thermodynamics even with fossil fuels. 

The thing I tell people is that climate change is happening whether they believe it or not. If you don't believe you had a heart attack that doesn't change the fact that you had it. We can point to the EKG and see the evidence. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Had a few fat flakes falling about an hr ago. Now getting a few snow showers. 36°

[the_other_guy]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well climate change is a theory in the same way evolution is. At some point winters like this one probably will be the norm in our area. 

Just perspective on this winter… Near normal (slightly AN) temperatures and not much snow.

You go back to November and you start charting it out...that is what you get.

Seems lost on this site, But we have not witnessed the AN temperature extremes we have gotten over the last few years.

[SnoSki14]

Temperatures over the past few days have been verifying warmer than forecast. 

50F right now, forecast was 45F. 

31 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's lunacy that anybody would say this in late January with such certainty. Do you have any meterological reasoning to back this up outside of being a disgruntled snow lover?

As we've seen many times in the past 15 years especially, there's been plenty of thread the needle snow events in less than ideal conditions. All it takes is one popping up on the models in the mid range to change the entire mood around here.  I don't know what flip flops more, the long term models or some AmericanWX posters

It's a pretty easy forecast actually. Lack of Atlantic blocking plus powerful Pacific jet will yield rainstorms & milder weather. 

This looks solid through mid Feb when MJO hovers near phase 6/7 with lag effects. A window will probably open up for 2-3 weeks from mid Feb to early March but only if the MJO can get to phase 8. 

I see no evidence of a -NAO anytime soon. I think it'll take tremendous luck to get an advisory event or better unless there's a radical change in the weather pattern.

I do think 1-3" inches over the next 6 weeks is possible. The Arctic front itself this week could drop an inch. NYC may crack 10".

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just perspective on this winter… Near normal (slightly AN) temperatures and not much snow.

You go back to November and you start charting it out...that is what you get.

Seems lost on this site, But we have not witnessed the AN temperature extremes we have gotten over the last few years.

Sounds like we are about to see those extremes