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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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Just now, NEG NAO said:

I agree without blocking and the 50/50 low don't expect any SECS or MECS we will just continue with the same pattern...…..Its good just inland and in the middle of the country though.

We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. 

Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking  to develop as we head into february.

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

I never get mad - I don't need anyones help - anyways to also post some other weather related info - JB in his morning video is going with the MJO graphic I displayed and thinks its going through the COD into phase 2

People use different mjo plots

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. 

Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking  to develop as we head into february.

Sure you can get snow in bad patterns, but it depends on what kind of snow you are looking for.  You can get a short duration SWFE that lasts like 6-8 hours and gives 6-8 inches and exits just before changing to rain or changes to sleet at the end, or you can get a fast moving Miller B that drops snow for a few hours and then changes to rain or mixed precip (or vice versa.)

 

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1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. 

With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch.  Hopefully it lasts for a few to several weeks.

Both 1993-94 and 2012-13 delivered in February and March.

 

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch.

 

I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative....

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You want to see the VP anomalies consolidate near the Date Line for it to look like a traditional February El Niño. The MJO passing through 6-7 is stretching the forcing west toward Indonesia to start February. The GFS is made public. But it’s hard to find the Euro which is best with MJO and tropical forcing in general. 

BC61A80A-02C0-4D37-A24F-C00EA82AB864.thumb.png.907e64d5a60d74e245602043e7fb26c4.png

488A826C-22E3-4C6B-8BA3-C57E6A7638E3.png.00bae2ecb956d54583d942fea0641b97.png

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif.1157586751f02e327e2b8234bcaf3324.gif

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5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO?

In the last 10-15 years we have several times.  If you go back before that just about never.  The Pacific was so favorable since 2000 the Atlantic often didn’t matter.  I’m not sure of any 12 inch plus events prior to 2000 that occurred with a +NAO outside of 2/11/94

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 12-13, 2014 is one such case.

Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast.

So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island.

 

But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-)

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast.

So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island.

 

But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-)

 

 

You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1.  

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