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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah well I work in a job where a few days a week some elementary kid throws a fit and tears up a classroom and so they call me to help. I'm supposed to talk the kid down. Doesn't work, and I wind up chasing the kid around the building for hours waiting for his parents to come get him. Which means my actual work doesn't get done. When I retire I do not want to work with kids, I need a break. A nursing home would be ok. Couple days a week. 

This winter must be destroying you, no snow days for a breather from snowflake monsters

 

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Just now, RedSky said:

This winter must be destroying you, no snow days for a breather from snowflake monsters

 

You said it. But these kids ain't snowflakes. Librarian called the cops on one kid and it didn't even phase him. He kept destroying the place. So they called a third cop. Still no good. So they called EMS. The five of them got the kid into a stretcher and took him away. 5th grader.

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Was at Jones Beach this am looked like some off shore.

 

Special Marine Warning for...

  Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 40 NM...
  Peconic and Gardiners Bays...

* Until 130 PM EST.

* Very cold air moving out over the waters around eastern Long
  Island has already produced isolated waterspouts late this
  morning. More waterspouts may be possible into early this
  afternoon.
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Will be interesting to see how quickly precip moves into the area Wednesday. Some guidance hinting that if it's early enough, it may begin as freezing rain. Highest probs for this currently just W and N of the city. Even with the southerly flow forecast, it will take some time to erode this air mass. Then it's game on for another heavy rain/ring of fire/southerly flow event Wed night - Thu AM.

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7 hours ago, wdrag said:

For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance...  take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event).  Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows.  This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21.  Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F.  A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. 

 

Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure...  I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber).  In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. 

Always enjoyed your discussions (BOX or Mt Holly)...the best. And enjoyed meeting you at Mt. Holly open house several years ago. Also, a huge thank you for writing me back on how to interpret FOUS output many, many, years ago (I think I still have that letter somewhere!). -Greg in NJ

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8 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I'm surprised January 7, 2014 didn't get it done.

17 was the best NYC did for a low max during the 13-14 winter.

1 2017-2018 13 0
2 2016-2017 23 0
3 2015-2016 15 0
4 2014-2015 19 0
5 2013-2014 17 0
6 2012-2013 20 0
7 2011-2012 27 0
8 2010-2011 23 0
9 2009-2010 20 0
10 2008-2009 16 0
11 2007-2008 20 0
12 2006-2007 18 0
13 2005-2006 24 0
14 2004-2005 18 0
15 2003-2004 15 0
- 2002-2003 15 0
17 2001-2002 31 0
18 2000-2001 25 0
19 1999-2000 19

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, uncle W said:

here's one from 1885...2/9-10...2.22".....-2 on 2/11...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1885-02-10/ed-1/seq-5/

That looks like it could be one of the closest with only a 2 day lag following the heaviest rain.

1885-02-09 37 22 29.5 -4.7 35 0 1.74 0.0
1885-02-10 45 11 28.0 -6.4 37 0 0.48 T
1885-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -30.0 60 0 0.00 0.0
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This morning, much of the region experienced its coldest temperatures of the winter so far. Daily minimum temperatures included: Allentown: 5° (lowest since 1/18/2018: 4°); Boston: 5° (lowest since 1/7/2018: -2°); New York City: 4° (lowest since 2/14/2016: -1°); Newark: 4° (lowest since 1/7/2018: 4°); Philadelphia: 10° (lowest since 1/7/2018: 4°); and Poughkeepsie: 3° (lowest since 1/18/2018: -2°). In addition, New York City's high temperature of 14° was that city's lowest maximum temperature since January 6, 2018 when the thermometer topped out at just 13°.

The SOI was +7.78 today. The SOI could go negative within 3-6 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.132. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.055.

On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.625 (RMM). That amplitude had risen from the January 19-adjusted figure of 1.426.

The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 3-6 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop. Nevertheless, a rapid collapse of the MJO into low amplitude values is unlikely. Instead, the process will likely be gradual perhaps requiring an additional 5 or more days.

With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Even the Southeast could experience potential snowfall opportunities.

During the next 10 days, two storms will likely impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The former will likely be a rainstorm in much or all of the region. The latter storm could be the bigger one and potentially snowy. Details about the latter storm remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important.

The GEFS ensembles continue to show the AO's diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into low amplitudes and/or its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential.

Operational models that whipsaw from > 8" for a given location at one cycle then little or nothing for the same location at the next 12-hour cycle should be largely discounted until their run-to-run continuity improves. There is a big difference between 500 mb verification scores and synoptic detail verification. The EPS and GEFS continue to hint at a pattern with potential. At this timeframe, there is little reason to discount the existence of such potential, especially as critical details remain unresolved.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City has continued to increase. The implied probability is currently 55%. This colder than normal monthly average would occur during a month when the first 9 days had a mean temperature of 40.0°. During January 1869-2018, only 4 out of the 20 January cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above through 1/9 had a monthly mean temperature below 32.6° (the current normal figure): 1939, 1966, 2000, and 2005.

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11 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Tractor trailer just overturned on the upper level of the Verrazano Bridge. I'm guessing it was due to the wind. Surprisingly they didn't have a tractor trailer ban the last 24 hours with the wind the way it has been.

With a wind advisory in effect, one would reasonably have expected such a ban. Hopefully, no one was hurt.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a wind advisory in effect, one would reasonably have expected such a ban. Hopefully, no one was hurt.

From my experience they usually don't ban tractor trailers from the NYC bridges unless there is a high wind warning issued. They do have their own wind measuring instruments on all the MTA-TBTA/PAPD controlled bridges to keep an eye on things. I wonder what the threshold is for them to actually declare a ban. Could also have been a more northerly component to the gust that flipped the tractor trailer then what has been ongoing since yesterday. That bridge runs basically E-W.

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39 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From my experience they usually don't ban tractor trailers from the NYC bridges unless there is a high wind warning issued. They do have their own wind measuring instruments on all the MTA-TBTA/PAPD controlled bridges to keep an eye on things. I wonder what the threshold is for them to actually declare a ban. Could also have been a more northerly component to the gust that flipped the tractor trailer then what has been ongoing since yesterday. That bridge runs basically E-W.

You could be right. It’s troubling that such an accident occurred. 

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