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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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57 minutes ago, nzucker said:

10-11 was my favorite winter in Westchester....had 70" and it piled up fast since it was from late December to early February. The SWFE on 2/3 put a sheen of ice on a 30" snowpack, very memorable. That storm hit Chicago extremely hard if I remember correctly.

Last year the best storms here were the Equinox one which dropped about 8" and then the one in early April that dropped another 6". The other 3 March Nor'easters were mostly nuisance events here in the Bronx.

I had 60 inches by February 1 that winter. NYC had a great chance of beating 1995-1996 if the la niña didn't take over.

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57 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Not a fan of the sst profile myself. Phase 5 is Indonesia. Well, look where the warmest water is along the equator. ENSO anomaly charts are overrated IMO. The ground truth is more important. Why does the convection seem to want to hang out near phase 5 this year? Here's today:

hxeGmsI.jpg

Here's one that I saved from Jan. 11th:

CS2Eiq6.jpg

Just something that I've had in the back of my mind...

Majority of forecasters think the mjo will go into the COD and not affect the forecast.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Majority of forecasters think the mjo will go into the COD and not affect the forecast.

Hopefully that's what happens. I'm just a bit concerned with the lackluster look starting to emerge on ensembles with the Pacific in the 10-15 day. The Pacific should be helping out in an el nino at this point moving forward. It looks kind of meh on the latest runs. 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The hopes for a big winter are fading fast.   Hopefully we can get one or two decent snow storms before it’s over.   Hate wasting January’s low sun agle  and low climo highs (I’m a fan of snowpack too) 

I had thought we were going to be into a sustained cold and snowy pattern change come 1/21. I was wrong, I busted. The 11-15 day period does not look promising right now, that is for sure and that period would take us into early February. I now have very serious doubts about February being any good for sustained cold or snow. I already think March is not a cold and snowy month like the last few have been. I’ve mentioned this before, but by the beginning of March, the +QBO will have descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and it’ll be strengthening. I think that works very strongly against any high latitude blocking, the pattern retrogrades, -PNA/RNA pattern takes over, zonal and semi zonal flow and it’s spring, unlike the last few March’s. The optimism I had for late January through the end of February is fading very quickly 

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42 minutes ago, romba said:

Uch -ao/+nao= suppression city again. Gonna need some strong help this year to get 6+ inches to the metro it seems

If the PV meanders in Hudson bay and the MJO causes some SE ridging, then you'll have a ton of clippers and Miller Bs coming down the pike.

Miller Bs are usually good those north of 40°N.

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I had thought we were going to be into a sustained cold and snowy pattern change come 1/21. I was wrong, I busted. The 11-15 day period does not look promising right now, that is for sure and that period would take us into early February. I now have very serious doubts about February being any good for sustained cold or snow. I already think March is not a cold and snowy month like the last few have been. I’ve mentioned this before, but by the beginning of March, the +QBO will have descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and it’ll be strengthening. I think that works very strongly against any high latitude blocking, the pattern retrogrades, -PNA/RNA pattern takes over, zonal and semi zonal flow and it’s spring, unlike the last few March’s. The optimism I had for late January through the end of February is fading very quickly 

Sustained cold is a given with the PV meandering along the southern Hudson. In fact it'll be enough to give us a negative temperature departure this month.

The problem I guess will be whether the cold and snow can align. I think it will in the form of clippers and Miller B storms as they'll be plenty of arctic blocking with bouts of strong Pacific blocking. 

Models/ensembles show BN temps with plenty of snow chances in the next 2 weeks. If we get to March 15 and nothing happens then you can talk but we have another 6 weeks to go minimum.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the PV meanders in Hudson bay and the MJO causes some SE ridging, then you'll have a ton of clippers and Miller Bs coming down the pike.

Miller Bs are usually good those north of 40°N.

Since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow, a very bad sign. Usually the truly historic winters find ways to snow, they snow in bad patterns. On the flip side, the true duds find ways not to snow, given that it’s the end of January, I’d say we are definitely making a run for a dud right now

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11 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Ever time you guys say March was good remember it was good for you islanders and north, we on coastal Jersey got basically nothing, so our chances are really dwindling.

The last March storm delivered as did the April Monday event for us. But yeah, we missed all the others, the worst being the 4 inches we got when 2 feet were predicted. Again. I get heat on here in every March because I dismiss most of the events because truly big storms are just really rare in march around here. But we can get 4-8 inchers.

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It always does because it loves the northern stream 

I am just hoping for an odd 3-6 incher or two. I really doubt we are seeing much more than that, if that. Totally unscientific, but it won't surprise me if the pattern ahead begins to unravel. I don't think it will surprise anyone really. But we did get the Feb 2006 blizzard ( which of course underperformed in my region but was still big ) and Jan 2016 during pretty lousy patterns.

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5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yesterdays 0.2 inches in Central Park leaves the city 31.1 inches short of reaching a 30 year average at the end of December 2020.

At this rate and with this pattern that's not a lock. Who knows what next winter brings, it could be a 96/97, 97/98. I shudder when I think of those.

A 30" 30 year average?

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9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yesterdays 0.2 inches in Central Park leaves the city 31.1 inches short of reaching a 30 year average at the end of December 2020.

At this rate and with this pattern that's not a lock. Who knows what next winter brings, it could be a 96/97, 97/98. I shudder when I think of those.

It’s highly likely at this stage we are neutral or El Niño next winter.  Probably 70% El Niño 30 neutral at this stage if you asked me to guess.  Chances are the Pacific would cooperate more in 19-20 than it did this winter 

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NYC decade snow averages...
decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T.....7.8......6.5.....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2017-18......0.4.....1.3.....5.1....15.7.......9.7.....6.2......0.7....39.1  2010-11-2018-19...11/15...December average went down...January will probably go down also...total average went down...


1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3
1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4

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27 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

A 30" 30 year average?

Correct. 31.1 inches needed by December 31, 2020 for the next 30 year average in Central Park to be 30.0 inches. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will).

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro shows some great potential next wsunday into Monday 

look at the digging. I mean that would definitely be a big storm but so far away obviously. At least we got a storm signal

6E97C405-A9DC-4385-A2AA-C3993606516E.png

EAC9272F-EB47-4C5C-AD0C-38C9DBEA0F8B.png

It's had the storm a few runs in a row now. Even if it's not huge I think we'd settle for a nice 4-8" event

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What do you think of what Tacoman said in the main ENSO thread about this being the result of the la nina from last year transitioning to an el nino this year, which has caused the positive SOI as well as the Pacific blowtorch?  He said el ninos that come after la ninas are generally colder in the West.

I know la ninas that come after el ninos are usually really good for us (1995-96 and 2010-11 being prime examples) but I did not know about el ninos coming after la ninas being like this one is.

 

Let's toss some other stuff in here lol-

What would happen if the AO went strongly negative but the NAO stayed positive?  That plus the above indicators you mentioned, could they result in suppression when its cold enough to snow and result in huggers or runners in between Arctic air masses (basically what we've been seeing already.)

So basically, we could be getting more consistently cold but will have to rely on clippers for snow that bomb very late and only significantly impact eastern NE (there's your miller b's lol), while the big storms either get suppressed or are a snow/ice to rain scenario before the next blast of Arctic air comes in.

 

 

We have certainly been getting some contradictory patterns in the Pacific in recent years. The warming of the equatorial Pacific west of the Dateline has amped up the MJO. It used to be that the Western Pacific would cool off during El Niño’s. But now we get a solid block of SST warmth from South America to Asia. There has also been quite a bit of SST warming off the equator in the Tropical Pacific. So we are mixing SST patterns together which would remained separate in the past. We can get this stuff like the SOI being out of phase with ENSO. Along with jet patterns that can look hybrid. There was also  record precipitation in 2016-2017 for parts of California that broke the super Niño records set in 1983 and 1998. Almost like a one year delay from the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

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