LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Out of those three, the one thing we have going for us is the AO, which will be tanking....that might indicate suppression with a pos NAO and neg PNA though and huggers/runners between Arctic airmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Let’s hope that AO drop is real. So far it’s been basically neutral.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Let’s hope that AO drop is real. So far it’s been basically neutral.... Yeah but did you get a load of the NAO and PNA? It looks like there might be a disconnect between the AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks nothing like the euro weeklies Agreed. I am starting to give up. PNA is looking to at least flatline if not negative and NAO going pos again. Only AO looks good but if PNA negative then heights will fall west. Maybe tomorrow will look better. At least we scored an inch last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Out of those three, the one thing we have going for us is the AO, which will be tanking....that might indicate suppression with a pos NAO though. The PNA is the biggest issue. Would allow AO to sink to west coast and pop SE ridge in east. I think this is why we are still seeing cutters in the ops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. I am starting to give up. PNA is looking to at least flatline if not negative and NAO going pos again. Only AO looks good but if PNA negative then heights will fall west. Maybe tomorrow will look better. At least we scored an inch last night. thats a really odd look, check out Tacoman's post in the main ENSO thread about how el ninas that come after la ninas can be different (colder in the West), in line with how la ninas after el ninos are usually better in the east (1995-96 and 2010-11 come to mind.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: thats a really odd look, check out Tacoman's post in the main ENSO thread about how el ninas that come after la ninas can be different (colder in the West), in line with how la ninas after el ninos are usually better in the east (1995-96 and 2010-11 come to mind.) Hopefully next year is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The PNA is the biggest issue. Would allow AO to sink to west coast and pop SE ridge in east. I think this is why we are still seeing cutters in the ops. Yeah that combo neg AO/neg PNA/ pos NAO sounds like a recipe for thread the needle scenarios, otherwise we either get suppressed or cutters/huggers/runners. The way you get snows in this kind of pattern is either front end thumps that change over or clippers that redevelop (which favor E NE anyway.) I wish we had some analogs for that kind of pattern to glean from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. MA forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 About one month left of “real” winter before normal highs start climbing into mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. I am starting to give up. PNA is looking to at least flatline if not negative and NAO going pos again. Only AO looks good but if PNA negative then heights will fall west. Maybe tomorrow will look better. At least we scored an inch last night. Tough pattern for sure. This week features a 36-48 hour cold snap and then back to 40’s Wed- Friday. Any prolonged cold and ssnow threat remains in the longer range. Same ol theme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Tough pattern for sure. This week features a 36-48 hour cold snap and then back to 40’s Wed- Friday. Any prolonged cold and ssnow threat remains in the longer range. Same ol theme... The only intriguing thing about this winter is the complex array of indicators and a lower level of confidence in what the outcome will be. I still hold out hope for one big coastal storm at some point, but no telling whether it's all snow. So far it's cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: The only intriguing thing about this winter is the complex array of indicators and a lower level of confidence in what the outcome will be. I still hold out hope for one big coastal storm at some point, but no telling whether it's all snow. So far it's cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry, etc. The hopes for a big winter are fading fast. Hopefully we can get one or two decent snow storms before it’s over. Hate wasting January’s low sun agle and low climo highs (I’m a fan of snowpack too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: The hopes for a big winter are fading fast. Hopefully we can get one or two decent snow storms before it’s over. Hate wasting January’s low sun agle and low climo highs (I’m a fan of snowpack too) One thing I see about our weather is that unless something huge happens to dislodge a pattern, persistence beats everything else with regards to storm track, timing of cold air with storms (or lack thereof), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: One thing I see about our weather is that unless something huge happens to dislodge a pattern, persistence beats everything else with regards to storm track, timing of cold air with storms (or lack thereof), etc. Yep. We almost need a 980 mb cutter to roar up the lakes and reset it all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep. We almost need a 980 mb cutter to roar up the lakes and reset it all... I hope we get that on the 24th, that would help change things up for the weekend and what happens next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The hopes for a big winter are fading fast. Hopefully we can get one or two decent snow storms before it’s over. Hate wasting January’s low sun agle and low climo highs (I’m a fan of snowpack too) The hopes for an average winter are fading fast for both Philly and New York. Of course we can get lucky in March like last year but overall it looks like a favorable period of 3-4 days then we're back to where we started in early Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Looks nothing like the euro weeklies What's wrong about that look? Why are there so many people who are giving up already? It's only this forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What's wrong about that look? Why are there so many people who are giving up already? It's only this forum lol Not time to give up but it’s getting late early. Anything good remains a week plus away. The euro weeklies are much more bullish. Have to hope that verifies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not time to give up but it’s getting late early. Anything good remains a week plus away. The euro weeklies are much more bullish. Have to hope that verifies It's just that our opportunity for snowpack is declining rapidly. All of the winters where we amassed a good snowpack had pretty much started by now...10-11 had Boxing Day, 13-14 had the 1/24 storm and 2/1, 14-15 had the 1/21 and 1/26. If we don't see a large-scale pattern change soon, we'll lose the best part of climo and have a scenario like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, nzucker said: It's just that our opportunity for snowpack is declining rapidly. All of the winters where we amassed a good snowpack had pretty much started by now...10-11 had Boxing Day, 13-14 had the 1/24 storm and 2/1, 14-15 had the 1/21 and 1/26. If we don't see a large-scale pattern change soon, we'll lose the best part of climo and have a scenario like last year. Last year was a great ending, but the snow melted quick with the strong March sun....10-11 rocked because the 30-40 day pattern occurred during the heart of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Last year was a great ending, but the snow melted quick with the strong March sun....10-11 rocked because the 30-40 day pattern occurred during the heart of winter... 10-11 was my favorite winter in Westchester....had 70" and it piled up fast since it was from late December to early February. The SWFE on 2/3 put a sheen of ice on a 30" snowpack, very memorable. That storm hit Chicago extremely hard if I remember correctly. Last year the best storms here were the Equinox one which dropped about 8" and then the one in early April that dropped another 6". The other 3 March Nor'easters were mostly nuisance events here in the Bronx. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Not a fan of the sst profile myself. Phase 5 is Indonesia. Well, look where the warmest water is along the equator. ENSO anomaly charts are overrated IMO. The ground truth is more important. Why does the convection seem to want to hang out near phase 5 this year? Here's today: Here's one that I saved from Jan. 11th: Just something that I've had in the back of my mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: MA forum Okay we'll see I guess. Whatever happens, happens. Not every winter is going to score. A lot of 80s & 90s winters were just like this year. Personally I think I'm done on here until there's something legitimate to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Okay we'll see I guess. Whatever happens, happens. Not every winter is going to score. A lot of 80s & 90s winters were just like this year. Personally I think I'm done on here until there's something legitimate to track. If promised pattern does not materialize I will take away from this winter the fact that the weeklies are useless! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: If promised pattern does not materialize I will take away from this winter the fact that the weeklies are useless! The weeklies beyond week 3 are generally not that reliable. They have stretches where they perform well but they can totally get the pattern wrong more often than not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The weeklies beyond week 3 are generally not that reliable. They have stretches where they perform well but they can totally get the pattern wrong more often than not How do you feel heading into the final 2 months of the winter season? The vibe I am getting around the forum is still optimistic, however muted from the high optimism a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: How do you feel heading into the final 2 months of the winter season? The vibe I am getting around the forum is still optimistic, however muted from the high optimism a week ago. I don’t see a torch or anything resembling late December and early January happening through week 3. What may happen though after Day 12 if the ensembles are right is -AO/+NAO and then you have to hope the EPO helps us. If it doesn’t you’re gonna have a fairly lousy pattern. The ENSO would indicate we could carry a good pattern into March. Plenty of El Niño’s have had snowy Marches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Uch -ao/+nao= suppression city again. Gonna need some strong help this year to get 6+ inches to the metro it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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