495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Watch us get 2 big snowstorms to get us to average in March and when looking back we will just see an average winter in lieu of catastrophic. A distinct possibility—March storms used to be a fantasy, now they are a reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: A distinct possibility—March storms used to be a fantasy, now they are a reality 1990 91 was a dud but had 2 good March events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The relationship between the MJO and SSW’s is an active area of current research. Last winter we saw a record MJO 7 nearly 4 SD in February. This was right around the time of the SSW. This winter the Jan SSW was preceded by the MJO spike around 3 sd around Christmas. Last winter we had the great run from March into early April as the MJO weakened. Now we are seeing a similar weakening or decay in the MJO next week. So hopefully we get a great window of winter opportunity moved up a month from last year. Thanks bluewave. It seems the models are very sensitive to swings in the MJO, where they think the convection is, and the amplitude of the MJO as well. Your thoughts here make sense, I really feel the duration and nature of this SSWE has caused a longer lag effect ( speculation only ), but yes, when the MJO decays we should see the modeling improve. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 MJOs. I really dont like the curl back to bad phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: MJOs. I really dont like the curl back to bad phases. Which model is more accurate ? Models have been struggling, but I agree, any deviations from weakening or decay are an issue, unless it heads back to the better phases. Good things came along for certain locations when we were in phase 8 , but wow it chugged along ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, frd said: Which model is more accurate ? Models have been struggling, but I agree, any deviations from weakening or decay are an issue, unless it heads back to the better phases. Good things came along for certain locations when we were in phase 8 , but wow it chugged along ! That is a better question for Bluewave. None are really accurate so I just look at d2d trends. Unfortunately the GEFS is curling to bad phases more each day. This is causing the angst in GFS I think. The AO and NAO ARE going negative according to CPC below, so perhaps the MJO causing a SE ridge will help mitigate suppression. Again a question for Bluewave. See below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 1990 91 was a dud but had 2 good March events. That was 91-92. 90-91 was actually fairly decent snow wise despite being a well above normal winter 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That is a better question for Bluewave. None are really accurate so I just look at d2d trends. Unfortunately the GEFS is curling to bad phases more each day. This is causing the angst in GFS I think. The AO and NAO ARE going negative according to CPC below, so perhaps the MJO causing a SE ridge will help mitigate suppression. Again a question for Bluewave. See below. Thats the best the AO ensemble forecast has been in days. I know many MJO experts talk about how there are issues with models interpreting where the convection isd, they could be wrong, maybe you need to look at the entire Pacific to see what is happening to better understand and anticipate what the MJO will do. I know several mets stated that manner of looking at the MJO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, frd said: Thats the best the AO ensemble forecast has been in days. I know many MJO experts talk about how there are issues with models interpreting where the convection isd, they could be wrong, maybe you need to look at the entire Pacific to see what is happening to better understand and anticipate what the MJO will do. I know several mets stated that manner of looking at the MJO. I am stoked that we actually see a negative NAO. First time This year. Last year the SSW resulted in 28 inches from March through April. Was epic even had a tree fall on my house early March. This SSW if similar would be better due to earlier timing and therefore better than 7 to 1 snow ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I am stoked that we actually see a negative NAO. First time This year. Last year the SSW resulted in 28 inches from March through April. Was epic even had a tree fall on my house early March. This SSW if similar would be better due to earlier timing and therefore better than 7 to 1 snow ratios. Yes, thats true. We would be in a prime time to cash in. There was some talk around from the strat guys including Earthlight, aka John Homenuk, that the date near Jan 21 st might be the day where the models sense the influence of the SSWE on the troposphere from downwelling. I mean the weeklies must be anticipating something in the HL from that for the look that they provide. I would watch the next several days for modeling changes. I hope this year provides more research on the effect of SSWE and the Pacific as it relates to the MJO and convection and heat release. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: MJOs. I really dont like the curl back to bad phases. All MJO forecasts pretty much have the MJO rotting in the circle or at a very low amplitude. The influence by February is almost non-existent so that by Jan 26 it's a non factor. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: All MJO forecasts pretty much have the MJO rotting in the circle or at a very low amplitude. The influence by February is almost non-existent so that by Jan 26 it's a non factor. let's hope...this next week of Phase 5 and 6 was largely unforecast if you go back 15-20 days....we continue to fight a a poor MJO phase..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Repeat Feb 4? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: 1990 91 was a dud but had 2 good March events. It was 92, and they weren't really impressive down my way. Not enough to close school. I was teaching at the time. But it was a bit of a surprise, as we'd had a lot of mild Marches up til then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 In all honesty its frustrating. GEPS and GEFS look like they are breaking down the blocks in lr, and ops show nothing till then. Maybe we are still headed to an epic blocking pattern but other than weeklies not seeing it. Just venting in the wrong thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Yes, thats true. We would be in a prime time to cash in. There was some talk around from the strat guys including Earthlight, aka John Homenuk, that the date near Jan 21 st might be the day where the models sense the influence of the SSWE on the troposphere from downwelling. I mean the weeklies must be anticipating something in the HL from that for the look that they provide. I would watch the next several days for modeling changes. I hope this year provides more research on the effect of SSWE and the Pacific as it relates to the MJO and convection and heat release. 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I am stoked that we actually see a negative NAO. First time This year. Last year the SSW resulted in 28 inches from March through April. Was epic even had a tree fall on my house early March. This SSW if similar would be better due to earlier timing and therefore better than 7 to 1 snow ratios. Sorry about the tree. Iwas always worried about my old oak and finally took it down after a decade of serious storms. I didn't do well with most of the March storms down here but we had the bonus April event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Sorry about the tree. Iwas always worried about my old oak and finally took it down after a decade of serious storms. I didn't do well with most of the March storms down here but we had the bonus April event. Thanks insurance covered all so thats good. We will see future I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1990 91 was a dud but had 2 good March events.That winter blew in general. I remember it being very sunny and mild while watching Gulf War footage; granted, I was 8.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, North and West said: That winter blew in general. I remember it being very sunny and mild while watching Gulf War footage; granted, I was 8. . We had the late December storm in a very warm pattern that dumped 6-8". There was a noreaster in January with a good dump of snow before sleet and rain. Interior locations may have gotten up to a foot. There also a surprise storm in late Feb that gave parts of the city on east 6"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: let's hope...this next week of Phase 5 and 6 was largely unforecast if you go back 15-20 days....we continue to fight a a poor MJO phase..... Mjo isn't going to be an issue moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We had the late December storm in a very warm pattern that dumped 6-8". There was a noreaster in January with a good dump of snow before sleet and rain. Interior locations may have gotten up to a foot. There also a surprise storm in late Feb that gave parts of the city on east 6"+ That wasn't 1990; I was teaching in Elizabeth. There was no snow to speak of, and I remember returning a parka to LL Bean because it was too warm. Didn't have our first snow day until March 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That wasn't 1990; I was teaching in Elizabeth. There was no snow to speak of, and I remember returning a parka to LL Bean because it was too warm. Didn't have our first snow day until March 93. Yes that was during the winter of 90-91 12-27-28 7.5" but melted in 2 days 1-11 6" changed to sleet and then heavy rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: 1990 91 was a dud but had 2 good March events. 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: It was 92, and they weren't really impressive down my way. Not enough to close school. I was teaching at the time. But it was a bit of a surprise, as we'd had a lot of mild Marches up til then. Many more warm marches say 1970-2000 than recently 2001 on if I had to guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Euro has a nice storm next monday. A little warm but would be rain to heavy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Mjo isn't going to be an issue moving forward based on what?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 airmasses continue to come in warmer than progged in the longer range. KC, a week ago was supposed to be in the single digits...instead it's close to 20 degrees there today.... need to get the AO to tank and get the MJO to take a trip through 7/8/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: airmasses continue to come in warmer than progged in the longer range. KC, a week ago was supposed to be in the single digits...instead it's close to 20 degrees there today.... need to get the AO to tank and get the MJO to take a trip through 7/8/1 It looks fine to me, latest Euro was really nice for us and I just need it cold enough to snow. Who cares about arctic cold otherwise. You don't necessarily need the MJO in those phases, you just want it to stay absent which is what is progged to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes that was during the winter of 90-91 12-27-28 7.5" but melted in 2 days 1-11 6" changed to sleet and then heavy rain 1/11 was brutal. Was forecast to be an all snow event as recently as one day prior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It looks fine to me, latest Euro was really nice for us and I just need it cold enough to snow. Who cares about arctic cold otherwise. You don't necessarily need the MJO in those phases, you just want it to stay absent which is what is progged to happen. seems like it's been more unpredictable than usual this year (MJO) Agree on the cold- 0 degree cold is not likely to net us much.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: based on what?!?!? Mjo going into the COD I guess you haven't been following everyone's thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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