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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Over the last 25-30 years, there have only been a few complete ratters. The ones that come to mind are 11/12, 01/02, 07/08, and 97/98.

Yeah no thanks. I'll take a huge snowstorm over these dusting events any day even if it were all to melt in 5-7 days.

Nothing more exciting to a weenie than tracking a huge snowstorm, after all those are the storms that we remember. 

Well to be fair I meant more like 1-3/2-4 type deals with no melting in between twice a week for an entire month, thats quite a bit of snow.

I love the big events too, just sick and tired of the thaws in between and the changeovers.

 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Over the last 25-30 years, there have only been a few complete ratters. The ones that come to mind are 11/12, 01/02, 07/08, and 97/98.

Yeah no thanks. I'll take a huge snowstorm over these dusting events any day even if it were all to melt in 5-7 days.

Nothing more exciting to a weenie than tracking a huge snowstorm, after all those are the storms that we remember. 

06-07 was a bad winter because all the frozen precip was in the form of sleet lol.

We had no coastals between 06-07 to 08-09 until we got the one that saved the 08-09 winter in March.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Well to be fair I meant more like 1-3/2-4 type deals with no melting in between twice a week for an entire month, thats quite a bit of snow.

I love the big events too, just sick and tired of the thaws in between and the changeovers.

 

Those little events are fine if you're looking to set a base, but they're mostly nuisance events though in bad winters I'll take anything. 

06/07 was amazing because of those sleet storms, till this day I've never seen anything like it. 08/09 had a few of those nuisance type events.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Those little events are fine if you're looking to set a base, but they're mostly nuisance events though in bad winters I'll take anything. 

06/07 was amazing because of those sleet storms, till this day I've never seen anything like it. 08/09 had a few of those nuisance type events.

Yeah I consider 08-09 an average winter because we had those events in January and the snowcover lasted for most of the month plus we had the big storm in March.

Whats considered a complete ratter, under 10 inches?

 

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will still be dealing with P-Type issues along the coast since the pattern still isn’t ready for a big amped up system.  But a little weak system like this can pretty much stay all snow. Baby steps...

Given the cold air that is potentially available, ice/sleet may be involved.  All depends on track which at this juncture is too early to pinpoint...

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Over the last 25-30 years, there have only been a few complete ratters. The ones that come to mind are 11/12, 01/02, 07/08, and 97/98.

Yeah no thanks. I'll take a huge snowstorm over these dusting events any day even if it were all to melt in 5-7 days.

Nothing more exciting to a weenie than tracking a huge snowstorm, after all those are the storms that we remember. 

Agree! Though it can be excruciating at times, def love tracking the potential.

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20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the cold air that is potentially available, ice/sleet may be involved.  All depends on track which at this juncture is too early to pinpoint...

That’s what P-Type issues mean...snow...sleet...freezing rain....rain. But indications are we may be able to handle an amplified system and stay all snow at the coast sometime after Jan 25th. The MJO will finally be weakening along with the expected El Niño progression to colder and snowier. Lines up nicely with El Niño climatology. 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s what P-Type issues mean...snow...sleet...freezing rain....rain. But indications are we may be able to handle an amplified system and stay all snow at the coast sometime after Jan 25th. The MJO will finally be weakening along with the expected El Niño progression to colder and snowier. Lines up nicely with El Niño climatology. 

And there is a good chance we might get more than just one big event?

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s what P-Type issues mean...snow...sleet...freezing rain....rain. But indications are we may be able to handle an amplified system and stay all snow at the coast sometime after Jan 25th. The MJO will finally be weakening along with the expected El Niño progression to colder and snowier. Lines up nicely with El Niño climatology. 

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO will finally be weakening for the first time since October along with the expected El Niño progression to colder and snowier. Lines up nicely with El Niño climatology. 

Its about time!

Sounds good and coincides with all the various seasonal models. Wonder if the SOI will turn back down and stay down in Feb. We were trending nicely negative. But last couple days in the positives. 

If you are into AAM and GWO I see those are improving shortly, as is the potential for the SSWE to effect the troposhere. Both of these shoud get us good blocking. 

My desire is to get the -NAO to manifest itself over time in the Davis Straights area. For my area, thats money. Seems the models have this happening by retrograding the block West over time. 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 11.26
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2 hours ago, Cfa said:

0.5” here. Grass still showing.

That's why you have to lower the blade so it's almost touching the ground when you mow for the last time in the fall. :)

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Not to be a distraction: to watch 24-25...  big QPF in the 00z/18 EPS and 00z-06z/GEFS then, after rain or ice to rain Wednesday.  So we'll see if its all warm or the second part is wintry (24-25?).  ?

Albany mentioned that period in the morning AFD as one to watch for a "strong storm system" with "widespread chances for snow". I was surprised to see this relatively strong wording, but it appears warranted. 

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Still snowing here too, Ant, how much do you have?

Also does anything think the extreme cold progged for Jan 30 will actually verify or will we tick warmer as we get closer?

 

About 0.5

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

And there is a good chance we might get more than just one big event?

 

Yes

The pattern looks great with possible huge blocking and very stormy.

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5 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

As disappointing as this winter has been so far, we all need to chill, yours truly included.  We have two more months left of winter and all it will take is one big snowstorm to help us forget about our disappointment so far.  Things are shaping up more favorably with baby steps.  

Nobody remembers the first half of 2014-15 and they only remember the first half of 2015-16 because of the batshittery that was December 2015.  With the MJO decaying, I think we are in for a decent run that will allow some of us to forget the disappointments we have seen thus far.  I think we snow to the coast and that "retention snobs" like me will be satisfied given the deep cold that's on the way!

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18 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Nobody remembers the first half of 2014-15 and they only remember the first half of 2015-16 because of the batshittery that was December 2015.  With the MJO decaying, I think we are in for a decent run that will allow some of us to forget the disappointments we have seen thus far.  I think we snow to the coast and that "retention snobs" like me will be satisfied given the deep cold that's on the way!

The Thanksgiving storm was the best part of '14-'15, frankly

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