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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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16 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The trend over the last 24 hours of modeling has been to slow the departure of the storm a bit, but it still seems like the stratiform shield should be eroding by 0z Monday. Totality begins just before midnight, by which time the GFS cloudcover outlook is pretty favorable.

The nice thing about a lunar eclipse is that even with broken overcast, it would be almost impossible not to get a clear patch around the moon at some point over the course of an hour. A solar eclipse is totally cooked if you get one wayward Cu passing through.

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Indeed, and today the forecasts seem to push the precip out of here by the early afternoon, so I'm hopeful about the eclipse!

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4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Area of snow beginning to expand now.  Still doubt anyone sees over 1 inch

there's a coastal associated with this storm isn't there? it's why it looks like areas near the water are seeing a nice hit of snow with roads snowcovered here already, heaviest snow expected around 5 am

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

EPS weeklies are going for the classic El Niño progression to colder well into February. This matches up with the MJO weakening for the first time since October in about a week.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1086035577428938752?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Does it look like the cold pattern will last all the way through February and into March?

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/01/16/the-polar-vortex-has-fractured-and-eastern-faces-punishing-winter/jrlhdAzeBKtcvY0d91gSOI/story.html

 

Saying the real cold and snow pattern should begin between Jan 25-30 and last between 4-8 weeks  even down to the South and what we are getting right now is just the appetizer.

 

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Next 8 days averaging 29degs., or 3degs. BN.

*** There had been no snow for 63 days, or about 45 of these 16 day outlooks, but I do not think it ever reported a 0" Mean output during the period in question.   As JWB said "Useless,useless" lol.

Month to date is +2.4[34.9].    Should be +0.7[33.0] by the 26th.

EURO is 3" of Snow for the next 10 days.     GEFS is a 75% chance of at least 19"  by  Feb. 3. ***(10" of this is for Jan. 21!, seems questionable.)

32.1* here at 6am.   Wet snow look with a little snow on ground.  33.5* at 7am.  35.0* at 8am.   37.4* by 10am.   41.5 by 11am.   We were lucky to see any white on the ground early on.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

El Niño pattern in full effect. First measurable snowfall of met winter coming on January 18th. Just 1 day later than the first measurable snowfall during our last El Niño winter in 15-16. That one occurred on 1-17-16 for many. 

this is a nice overachiever here- no mixing in SW Nassau and its sticking to the roads!

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And yet the next two systems are mostly heavy rain events. 

We will still be dealing with P-Type issues along the coast since the pattern still isn’t ready for a big amped up system.  But a little weak system like this can pretty much stay all snow. Baby steps...

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really pathetic that tonight's dusting will be the most snow I've had since November.

February better deliver something because this winter is top 3 worst for me as of now. 

How old are you? Curious because there have been a few winters with almost nothing since the 90s worse than this. 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will still be dealing with P-Type issues along the coast since the pattern still isn’t ready for a big amped up system.  But a little weak system like this can pretty much stay all snow. Baby steps...

Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after.  If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009.  That felt very wintry lol.

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after.  If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009.  That felt very wintry lol.

 

Agreed but if we want a month of winter feel we still need a solid storm to lay down some kind of base.  These little systems better serve as pack refreshers than builders.   

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Just now, Snowshack said:

Agreed but if we want a month of winter feel we still need a solid storm to lay down some kind of base.  These little systems better serve as pack refreshers than builders.   

Yes the ideal combo would be a couple of big bookenders and a bunch of little events in between and after lol.

Hopefully that article is right and we have 8 weeks of a really good pattern starting Jan 25th.

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27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after.  If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009.  That felt very wintry lol.

 

We may be able to handle an amplified storm and stay all snow sometime after the system on Jan 24-25th. Not sure if the timing will work out to the last week of January or into February.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We may be able to handle an amplified storm and stay all snow sometime after the system on Jan 24-25th. Not sure if the timing will work out to the last week of January or into February.

If it's February then the 2012-13 analog ends up being the best.  But if the great pattern lasts for 4-8 weeks like predicted, we should have more than just one opportunity for a huge event shouldn't we? In 2012-13 we only had the one.

 

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37 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

How old are you? Curious because there have been a few winters with almost nothing since the 90s worse than this. 

Over the last 25-30 years, there have only been a few complete ratters. The ones that come to mind are 11/12, 01/02, 07/08, and 97/98.

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after.  If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009.  That felt very wintry lol.

 

Yeah no thanks. I'll take a huge snowstorm over these dusting events any day even if it were all to melt in 5-7 days.

Nothing more exciting to a weenie than tracking a huge snowstorm, after all those are the storms that we remember. 

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