LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Tomorrow should be a great sunrise assuming that stratus deck over PA doesn't get any smart ideas. Still hopeful about skies at least partially clearing in time for the total part of the lunar eclipse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 31degs., or 1deg. BN. Month to date is +2.8[35.3]. Should be +1.6[33.8] by the 25th. EURO is 8" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 70% of at least 14" by Feb. 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don what do you think was the reason we had much colder winters back then but much less snow? Januaries back in the 80s almost universally had monthly average temps in the mid to upper 20s and the southern track was much more frequent with several cases of DC getting more snow than what they've gotten in the last couple of decades (outside of the really big winters like 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2009-10.) While synoptic patterns, along with SSTAs, likely shaped the storm tracks, the larger-scale observed ongoing warming has likely resulted in warmer January cases. Given synoptic patterns have been warmer than they were back in the 1980s. The following are mean temperatures for New York City (Central Park): January 1980-89: AO-: 29.9°; AO+: 31.8° January 2010-18: AO-: 33.1°; AO+ 34.5° A similar outcome with some differences in the extent of the warming can be seen throughout the Northeast and Middle Atlantic regions. I would post relevant charts from the NCDC site, but the site is currently down due to the ongoing partial federal government shutdown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We are finally going to be able to beat the November low temperature in NYC by Monday morning. Very unusual for a November monthly minimum to remain as the coldest of the season through January 19th. But it’s the 2010’s so we have become accustomed to these new types of weather oddities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While synoptic patterns, along with SSTAs, likely shaped the storm tracks, the larger-scale observed ongoing warming has likely resulted in warmer January cases. Given synoptic patterns have been warmer than they were back in the 1980s. The following are mean temperatures for New York City (Central Park): January 1980-89: AO-: 29.9°; AO+: 31.8° January 2010-18: AO-: 33.1°; AO+ 34.5° A similar outcome with some differences in the extent of the warming can be seen throughout the Northeast and Middle Atlantic regions. I would post relevant charts from the NCDC site, but the site is currently down due to the ongoing partial federal government shutdown. This is SO interesting, because although the temperatures have warmed by 3-4 degrees (fairly significant!) we have also seen more snow than we did back then. And we didn't just warm, we crossed a significant threshold, where the monthly average temperatures were below freezing regardless of the AO back then to above freezing regardless of the AO now in our statistically coldest month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are finally going to be able to beat the November low temperature in NYC by Monday morning. Very unusual for a November monthly minimum to remain as the coldest of the season through January 19th. But it’s the 2010’s so we have become accustomed to these new types of weather oddities. I think since December 1, Central Park's met winter low has only been 20 degrees? How many met winters have there been when we didn't get a low below 20 or one in which it occurred this late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think since December 1, Central Park's met winter low has only been 20 degrees? How many met winters have there been when we didn't get a low below 20 or one in which it occurred this late? This was only the 4th time NYC didn’t drop below 20 degrees from Dec 1st to Jan 17th. It last happened in 2013 after the record November snowstorm that year also. 1 2013-01-17 22 0 2 2019-01-17 20 1 - 2002-01-17 20 0 - 1932-01-17 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was only the 4th time NYC didn’t drop below 20 degrees from Dec 1st to Jan 17th. It last happened in 2013 after the record November snowstorm that year also. 1 2013-01-17 22 0 2 2019-01-17 20 1 - 2002-01-17 20 0 - 1932-01-17 20 Thanks Chris, when was the first below 20 low in met winter in 2012-13? Was it later than this one is projected to be? Surprised 2006-07 isn't on this list (or 1997-98 or 2011-12 for that matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Chris, when was the first below 20 low in met winter in 2012-13? Was it later than this one is projected to be? Surprised 2006-07 isn't on this list (or 1997-98 or 2011-12 for that matter). Right around the same time as this year. 1-22-13 dropped to 13 and and 11 a day later. 06-07 dropped below 20 on Dec 8th. Jan 12 dropped to 13 on the 4th. While Jan 98 did it on the 1st with a 14 low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 HRRR at the end of its run for tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAMS for tonight. 1”-2” is likely to kick off this great period of winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Right around the same time as this year. 1-22-13 dropped to 13 and and 11 a day later. 06-07 dropped below 20 on Dec 8th. Looks like 12-13 has more similarities to this season than 06-07 does (I wonder if a storm like this happened in the last half of Jan 2013?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like 12-13 has more similarities to this season than 06-07 does (I wonder if a storm like this happened in the last half of Jan 2013?) Not much in the way of big storms in January 2013. It was a dry month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not much in the way of big storms in January 2013. It was a dry month. cold and dry especially 2nd half of the month. The Big NYC east blizzard occurred 2/8/13 and then one more big storm in March and that was it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: cold and dry especially 2nd half of the month. The Big NYC east blizzard occurred 2/8/13 and then one more big storm in March and that was it.... I would sign up for that in a heartbeat again. 1 epic storm and 1 9 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: cold and dry especially 2nd half of the month. The Big NYC east blizzard occurred 2/8/13 and then one more big storm in March and that was it.... That was also a horrible winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I would sign up for that in a heartbeat again. 1 epic storm and 1 9 incher. Saved what was otherwise a dud. (Was a dud S and W of NYC) This winter's 2nd half script still pending, but I'd take one bomb and call it a day and have spring start 3/1.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z for tonight-Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Still hopeful about skies at least partially clearing in time for the total part of the lunar eclipse? The trend over the last 24 hours of modeling has been to slow the departure of the storm a bit, but it still seems like the stratiform shield should be eroding by 0z Monday. Totality begins just before midnight, by which time the GFS cloudcover outlook is pretty favorable. The nice thing about a lunar eclipse is that even with broken overcast, it would be almost impossible not to get a clear patch around the moon at some point over the course of an hour. A solar eclipse is totally cooked if you get one wayward Cu passing through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 20 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: When and where was that? Probably 15 yrs ago. Maybe more. Cliffwood Lake next to Canistear Reservoir in Vernon, NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The first half of winters during this decade have been all or nothing for snowfall. The only year NYC couldn’t get 20”+ plus after Jan 15th was 2012. NYC 12/1-1/15 snowfall 2019-01-15 T 0 2018-01-15 17.5 0 2017-01-15 10.1 0 2016-01-15 T 0 2015-01-15 3.5 0 2014-01-15 15.0 0 2013-01-15 0.4 0 2012-01-15 T 0 2011-01-15 30.9 0 2010-01-15 13.2 NYC snowfall after Jan 15th 2018-04-20 23.4 0 2017-04-20 20.1 0 2016-04-20 32.8 0 2015-04-20 46.6 0 2014-04-20 42.4 0 2013-04-20 21.0 0 2012-04-20 4.5 0 2011-04-20 31.0 0 2010-04-20 38.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 24-27 timeframe is the next one to be looking at. The cutter on the 23rd could set us up for a nice Miller A. CMC, GFS and FV3 have been advertising this for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It might be coming https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/01/16/the-polar-vortex-has-fractured-and-eastern-faces-punishing-winter/jrlhdAzeBKtcvY0d91gSOI/story.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 After a just over two-month wait, Central Park will likely see some measurable snow from a weak system tonight into tomorrow morning. A light accumulation of snow (generally a coating to an inch of snow with locally higher amounts of up to 2") will accumulate in the region. Boston, which has received a record low 0.2" snow to date (the old record was 0.7" in 1927-28), could pick up about an inch of snow. The SOI was -7.30 today. It has been negative for 15 out of the last 17 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.133. That is the 12th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.078. On January 16, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.089(RMM). That amplitude had risen above the January 15-adjusted figure of 0.958. This is only the second case on record where the MJO re-emerged into Phase 3 with an amplitude of 1.000 from its having gone into Phase 8 at a low amplitude. In coming days, the MJO could advance fairly quickly into and through Phase 4 and into Phases 5 and 6. As the MJO moves through Phases 5 and 6, the AO could go positive for a time (as has been indicated on the guidance in recent days). However, with the MJO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. A major storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period. A light to moderate snowfall is likely along the immediate coast. There is a growing risk of a significant period of sleet and freezing rain in parts of the coastal plain and just inland. Cities such as Albany, Bangor, Binghamton, Burlington, Caribou, Concord, Portland, Rochester, Rutland, and Syracuse remain in line to receive a substantial snowfall. Those areas could see a widespread 12"-18" snow with locally higher amounts. New York City could pick up 2"-4". However, any delay in the changeover could result in an accumulation of several additional inches of snow. A blast of bitter cold air will follow the storm. The temperature could fall into the single digits in New York City for the first time since January 7, 2018. Overall, the probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area has increased further. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 EPS weeklies are going for the classic El Niño progression to colder well into February. This matches up with the MJO weakening for the first time since October in about a week. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1086035577428938752?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13 I had forgotten completely about it, until I went to the supermarket. Never got out of the car. I wish people would take the time to look up the weather for themselves and stop acting like its the end of the world every time snow is mentioned. They do not do this when they call for a chance of thunderstorms in summer.....what were we supposed to get? Not much, I gather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I had forgotten completely about it, until I went to the supermarket. Never got out of the car. I wish people would take the time to look up the weather for themselves and stop acting like its the end of the world every time snow is mentioned. They do not do this when they call for a chance of thunderstorms in summer.....what were we supposed to get? Not much, I gather? Honestly, since 11/15, this winter has found ways not to snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13 Hmmm. Wayyy off ehh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Hmmm. Wayyy off ehh? The simulated radar was way more impressive earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now