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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Horrible, give me a warm 11/12 winter then if we're not gonna snow. 

Hopefully the models continue to modify the cold behind it.

Both the Euro and GFS have a northerly flow of Arctic air down the Hudson Valley after the storm on Jan 20th. 

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Finally able to walk out on my pond again as of this afternoon. Thickness jumped from about 1.5" yesterday to >2.5" presently. Ice is very young and transparent... it's like looking through aquarium glass at the fish swimming below my feet.

I just calculated FDD and through today (now), your ice should have gone from mil to 3"...  your report is close to what should have ben.  Very helpful.  Not sure that 3" is safe.Am more certain of 4" but anyway, thanks for your report!  Walt

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For what its worth, without snow cover, we're doing pretty good on negative departures here near I-80.  Here are the 13th/12th (top and bottom) avg temp departures from the SERCC perspectives page.  I'll add the 14th to this post tomorrow land then leave it at that as we trend bit milder at times 15th, til the ~20th-21st. 

Screen Shot 2019-01-14 at 6.48.27 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-14 at 6.48.42 PM.png

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The weekend snowstorm dumped 10.3” snow at Washington, DC. The snow-liquid ratio was 12.1:1. That was Washington's 33rd 10" or greater snowstorm on record.

The SOI was -4.33 today. It has been negative for 13 out of the last 15 days.

The AO was -0.472. That is the 9th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.072.

On January 13, the MJO moved into Phase 1 with an amplitude of 0.579(RMM). That amplitude was below the January 12-adjusted figure of 0.795.

Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. The EPS forecasts the MJO to push rapidly into Phase 3 and then Phase 4 at a high and increasingly amplitude. However, there is only a single case where the MJO re-emerged at a high amplitude in Phase 3 after having moved into the low amplitude values while in Phase 8. The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude.

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination.

Another storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period and again during the January 23-25 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall from either or both of these events. It is premature to write off the prospect of a significant snowfall with any of the events.

The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, which is the lowest figure on record through January 14). Washington, DC already has above normal January snowfall.

Distribution of Snowfall (January 12-14, 2019):

Distributionof-Snow0112-132019.jpg

Source: National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area continues to increase, especially as some of the guidance is suggesting the potential for a severe cold shot following the January 19-21 storm.

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4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Finally able to walk out on my pond again as of this afternoon. Thickness jumped from about 1.5" yesterday to >2.5" presently. Ice is very young and transparent... it's like looking through aquarium glass at the fish swimming below my feet.

I love when it's like that. Not living right on a pond or lake I've only experienced that a few times and it's a source of wonder for me.

 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I just calculated FDD and through today (now), your ice should have gone from mil to 3"...  your report is close to what should have ben.  Very helpful.  Not sure that 3" is safe.Am more certain of 4" but anyway, thanks for your report!  Walt

Thanks for the info, Walt. It's always nice when obs are in-line with expected values for this sort of thing. Admittedly, I'm not very familiar with the practice of predicting ice growth using FDDs, so I'll have to spend some time reading up on the subject.

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10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I love when it's like that. Not living right on a pond or lake I've only experienced that a few times and it's a source of wonder for me.

Between the visuals and the otherwordly creaking/groaning/shooting laser sounds of new ice, it's really a unique experience. Your senses are heightened and you're more in-tune with your surroundings than in almost any other situation.

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Next 8 days averaging 31degs., or 1deg. BN.

Month to date is +3.1[35.7].    Should be +1.6[34.0] by the 23rd.

EURO is 1" of Snow again on the next 10 days.    GEFS is holding its ' 60% chance' of at least 16" of Snow by the 30th.

What has happened to model continuity?

EURO has been 12,18, 5, 6, 1 on the weekend storm.   Someone will get 36" and others a layer of icy sleet with the promised post storm cold wave.

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If we get a cutter 1/20 and a big warm up end of next week, January will almost be certain to finish in the positive temp category...let's hope the MJO continues the trip through the cold phases after 4 and 5....a bit of a surprise for it to head right back to 4/5 after reaching the promise land of 8

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EPS made some changes towards the GEFS in the extended. Even if this weekend doesn't pan out, there is pretty good agreement that storm helps turn the NAO negative early next week. Many of the ensembles now bridge that NW Atlantic ridge with a NE Pac ridge in a couple of weeks, which locks the PV in place somewhere between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. A fun and intense pattern by the looks of it. 

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13 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

EPS made some changes towards the GEFS in the extended. Even if this weekend doesn't pan out, there is pretty good agreement that storm helps turn the NAO negative early next week. Many of the ensembles now bridge that NW Atlantic ridge with a NE Pac ridge in a couple of weeks, which locks the PV in place somewhere between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. A fun and intense pattern by the looks of it. 

That is probably a result of both sets of guidance getting back closer to MJO 7 and beyond near the end of the month.

 

80409FF0-98F6-4393-8E84-F326BE7D627E.gif.da033bdde12102eb6d450cfa6bf37a43.gif

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That is probably a result of both sets of guidance getting back closer to MJO 7 and beyond near the end of the month.

 

80409FF0-98F6-4393-8E84-F326BE7D627E.gif.da033bdde12102eb6d450cfa6bf37a43.gif

That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. 

Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.

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17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Agreed.  Also noticed the higher amp in 5. 

Yeah

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. 

Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.

The main difference is that El Niño winters typically are colder and snowier during the 2nd half than 1st. So the lack of snow and mild temperatures 12/1-1/15 lines up with the El Niño playbook. Pretty much the opposite of the La Niña last year. It’s just that the 2010’s climate adds an extreme edge to things.

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11 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Between the visuals and the otherwordly creaking/groaning/shooting laser sounds of new ice, it's really a unique experience. Your senses are heightened and you're more in-tune with your surroundings than in almost any other situation.

I remember skating to close to a dam spill way as a kid; left leg went right through. Thankfully the rest of the ice held. 

You learn quick on pond ice. 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

If we get a cutter 1/20 and a big warm up end of next week, January will almost be certain to finish in the positive temp category...let's hope the MJO continues the trip through the cold phases after 4 and 5....a bit of a surprise for it to head right back to 4/5 after reaching the promise land of 8

 

The warm up you see this weekend is about 18 hours long.  The anomaly for the day is positive but the cold air rushes right back in.

The MJO is not going to give you the same warm response in late Jan that it did in Dec.  You are going to get 3 to 4 days of cold and 1 day cutter and than back to cold.

Not to mention that you will snow Thrs nite into Friday morning. 

You now have TPV sitting over H/B , the MJO will have to fight with that.  That was not present in Dec. 

 

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6 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The warm up you see this weekend is about 18 hours long.  The anomaly for the day is positive but the cold air rushes right back in.

The MJO is not going to give you the same warm response in late Jan that it did in Dec.  You are going to get 3 to 4 days of cold and 1 day cutter and than back to cold.

Not to mention that you will snow Thrs nite into Friday morning. 

You now have TPV sitting over H/B , the MJO will have to fight with that.  That was not present in Dec. 

 

We may see more snow Thursday night than over the weekend....

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We may see more snow Thursday night than over the weekend....

Probably , but since the 10th , we are BN and will stay BN the rest of the month when you average it all out.

 

There is too much weight put on the MJO in here for the last 10 days of the month.

 

We are not torching like we did in Dec. 

 

 

Dw5dI8cWkAEhePW.jpg

 

Dw5dG4QX4AA5XAl.jpg

 

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BTW day 10 EPS now has this 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_11.png

 

As does the GEFS 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_39.png

 

I know some of you saw the GFS 2m anomaly map and decided to air mail winter in , but this will likely have a better air mass in front of it as well as a - EPO this time ( this weekend the EPO pops + ) .

 

Some of you need to relax , you have no idea what`s coming  over the next 30 days do you ? 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. 

Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.

 

Hopefully now you guys can stop with the dumb RIMM plots. 

 

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From NOAA's latest Weekly MJO Update...

Dw95JB5XcAE83SP.jpg

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